This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Here we go! We teased it in Saturday's column, but we've got real money on the line for the first time Tuesday night. DraftKings main contest features a $40,000 pot and a $10,000 first-place prize for your $15 entry, with "just" 3,137 lineups competing. As of Monday evening, we were just 1/3 full, so there's no reason to not take a chance here on a guaranteed prize.
12 games are there for us to break down, with the six that tip at 9:00 doubling into a second slate that's not quite as exciting from a winnings standpoint. The slate includes two double-digit favorites (Kentucky and Alabama), two games that feature high scoring totals. Houston-Iowa State is our low-scoring game of the evening with just 131.5 points anticipated. Oklahoma State-Texas Tech is the only other game under 140 points.
Top Players
Dre Davis, G/F, Seton Hall ($7,400)
To take down a purse, we have to be willing to be uncomfortable and take chances, and that's just what Davis can be. Georgetown checks in 273rd in defensive efficiency, per KenPom, which makes the Pirates ripe for selection. That should make Kadary Richmond the chalky pay-up, so lets pivot and see what happens. Davis is averaging a robust 34 minutes across his last five, posting a 23.5 percent usage rate while averaging 13.6 shot attempts. The price is a little unsettling, as it's rising, and Davis needs 29.6 DKP for a 4x return, something he's only hit twice in this span. But the Hoyas struggle at defending inside the arc (52.9 percent on 2-pointers, ranking 275th) and don't rebound well (289th in offensive rebound percentage allowed), both playing into Davis' appeal.
Tre Mitchell, F, Kentucky ($7,300)
What are we doing with this price? Mitchell has been as high as $8,200, and while he's had some down games throughout December, he's overall been rock solid in production, usage and minutes. He's not an offensive focal point, but has double-digit rebounds in three straight and nine-plus in four of five. Missouri ranks 142nd in defensive efficiency, and and 303rd in offensive rebounds allowed. That seems to suggest Mitchell can clean up some misses and flirt with a double-double. His ceiling isn't high enough to win this slate, but the price point puts him within range of a 5x return while giving you some options to spend up, or build further balance. Kentucky having an implied total of 87.25 certainly doesn't hurt either.
Middle Tier
Primo Spears, G, Florida State ($6,400)
Spears simply needs minutes to give a long-awaited fantasy boom. We unfortunately have nothing to suggest it's coming outside of the 'Noles needing it. He has a massive 29.9 percent usage rate over the last five and hasn't been under 26.1 percent in any game since being deemed eligible. It's heavy volume, all inside the arch (which Wake defends well), and minimal peripherals. None of that adds up from a matchup standpoint, nor does the rising price. But this is the point in the season where players need to be unleashed and allowed to do what they were brought in to provide. Spears averaged 16-3-5 last year at Georgetown.
Jalen Bridges, F, Baylor ($5,000)
Bridges seems priced for success here, needing just 20 DKP for a fair return in a game with a tight spread and 154 point total. Both sides are deep and don't offer aces, but it's game we likely want a piece of. Bridges game logs are puzzling, but he played 37 minutes in their conference opener, and produced 21.25 DKP, which works well. We're looking for five or more rebounds, and the points to come from the expected total.
Bargain Options
Dylan Disu, F, Texas ($4,800)
Right back to the well here for me on Disu, who I targeted over the weekend with mediocre success. But the price has fallen $1,100 since then, and the opportunity remains the same. His minutes aren't what we want, but it still seems like they could double at any outing. He's got a 27.7 percent usage rate over his last five, taking 28.3 percent of his team's shots when on the court. Texas has nearly a 71-point expected total, and I'm personally surprised to see them as an underdog here. If Texas wants to play big, they should have an advantage, and Disu can be part of exploiting that. We need 19.2 DKP for a 4x return, which Disu is averaging over and has only been a distance away once in five games.
Jaland Lowe, G, Pittsburgh ($4,000)
Loyal readers this season know I love the Panthers' offense for DFS, because it's essentially a three-player funnel for production. But one of those three, Ishmael Leggett, missed Saturday's game and isn't certain to play here. That could raise the upside for Lowe, but I'm not so sure Lowe isn't earning appeal regardless of a potential start. He's returned 3x or better this number in five straight, which seems to suggest a floor that's solid for this price. He also earned 23.5 DKP in his start over the weekend despite a low 15.1 percent usage rate. The matchup isn't ideal with Duke ranking 23rd defensively, but the Panthers should flirt with 70 points in a tight game.
