This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
We aren't quite into the thick of college hoops just yet. DraftKings is offering two slates Saturday, with a mix of conference games and non-conference round-ups, so we've got smaller than ideal GPP winnings available for what is hopefully one last time this year.
Let's take a look at both slates as a final tune-up for what's to come.
Main Slate
There's only a $1,000 first-place prize available in the featured, nine-game slate. Two matchups come with expected totals of at least 150 points to make for clear targets, while there's a paltry 114 listed for Notre Dame-Virginia. You can target that one if you wish as you're going to get next to zero roster percentages, but it's such a low total I don't see how anyone can provide the fair return we require.
Five other games have totals between 143.5 and 148.5, so there's ample options to sort through that will lead to plenty of different lineups.
Top Players
Joel Soriano, F, St. John's ($9,400)
Kansas's big two lead this slate in terms of salary, and Soriano looks like he can be a decent pivot for slightly less. He's riding a five-game double-double streak with a 34.75 DKP floor, and St John's should flirt with 80 points. Hofstra also doesn't carry ample size or bulk to battle Soriano, so it appears to be a nice spot. And Chris Ledlum won't play here, which frees up 10.8 points and 7.8 rebounds as the Red Storm don't have an obvious replacement. We can wait for lineups to see if there's a value play available, though I like Soriano to consistently score and potentially see some additional boards come his way to raise his floor and ceiling.
Blake Hinson, F, Pittsburgh ($7,300)
Pittsburgh is one of my favorite teams for DFS because their offense runs through three people only. Hinson gets my nod here with the higher usage rate (27.2 percent in last five), the cheaper salary, and the fact he's a forward - which is always how I prefer to build. None of the three are in good form, so this is no slam dunk. I don't buy Syracuse's defensive metrics, but they do appear to be playing better. And they also play fast ranking 43rd in tempo, which should allow Hinson the opportunity for 30-plus DKP.
Middle Tier
Grant Nelson, F, Alabama ($6,900)
I'm not really sure what we're doing with Nelson at this value point. He's only been under a 3.75x return twice from his last eight games while posting double-digits in all while setting up a nice floor. The ceiling hasn't been as high as his first few appearances, and this is an interesting matchup. Alabama is expected to score in the 80s as they push pace, but Liberty desperately doesn't want to run as they check in at 344th in tempo. The Flames have no size to speak of with no rotational options bigger than 6-foot-7, 220 pounds, which means Nelson will have four inches and at least 10 pounds on any defender.
Efton Reid, F, Wake Forest ($5,700)
Major risk, major reward potential here. Reid has only logged four games to date as has gone for at least 33.5 DKP twice and 19 in his other two, including fouling out in 14 minutes against New Jersey Institute of Technology. Virginia Tech plays through Lynn Kidd in the post, which is going to put Reid in position for fouls, blocks or rebounds. It's anyone's guess how this will play out, but the potential is there for him to help take down GPPs with a huge return at this salary.
Bargain Options
Jayson Kent, G/F, Indiana State ($4,800)
I have no idea what to make of the Sycamores here, as they've only faced Alabama as a decent opponent so far. But they racked up 80 there, and are expected to flirt with 70 here despite Michigan State entering 11th defensively and 298th in tempo. Kent provides us position flexibility, averages 29.5 minutes, double-digit points and five-plus rebounds. He went for 20 DKP in that game against the Tide, and that's all we're looking for. Kent has scored in double-digits in all but one game and lists three double-doubles, so there's some ceiling despite the matchup.
Elmarko Jackson, G, Kansas ($4,600)
Never in my wildest dreams would I have expected to highlight four frontcourt options above. It simply never manifests itself, but the opportunity and risk/reward were all there. In the interest of balance, we'll target some cheaper backcourt options to round things out. We likely want a piece to the Jayhawks offense on Saturday, and a starting guard at a sub-5k value that should log 20-plus minutes works fine. Kansas should score 80 and are heavy favorites. Jackson has failed to return a 3x return only three times in 12 games. He should hit that during the bulk of the game. And if it gets out of hand, could be more involved against a Shockers team that's top-third in tempo.
Late Slate
We've got a low $100 first-place prize at stake on this three-game late slate. But for my own personal practice, we'll give it a quick look.
Three matchups show 140-plus point expected totals, yet two come with spreads of at least 8.5 points. Let's grab one option from each of the six schools, even if that's not the right thought process as it seems to set up for team and game stacks.
Top Players
Danny Wolf, F, Yale ($8,400)
Wolf is a beast at 7-foot, 250 pounds. Santa Clara has some size to combat him, but not the bulk with Francisco Caffaro unlikely to get 20 minutes. Wolf has a team-best 25.1 percent usage across his last five while registering double-digits in 10 straight while averaging 9.1 rebounds.
Jordan Pope, G, Oregon State ($7,900)
The matchup isn't great as USC is 63rd in defensive efficiency and 103rd in tempo. But if I'm sticking with a theme of one player per team here, Pope is the clear answer. He's averaging 14.0 shot attempts and does enough peripherally to get a 3x-plus floor with a higher ceiling if the shots fall.
Middle Tier
RaeQuan Battle, G, West Virginia ($6,700)
Consider this the free square of the slate. We should assume Battle is going to be used by essentially everyone, so his omission hurts far more than his inclusion helps regardless of the output. Battle also carries a massive 43.5 percent usage rate in his two outings. This is a step up in class, but again does it matter? I'll take a player who's being forced into 18.5 shot attempts nightly also getting to the foul line 9.5 times. Until he's valued over 7k and/or regresses in conference, roll with Battle.
Johnny O'Neil, F, Santa Clara ($6,000)
O'Neil profiles as a high-ceiling, low-floor option and that's ideal for this smaller slate as we've got to take shots and not care as much about failing. He's averaged 10.2 shot attempts across his last six games while chipping in 5.8 boards, 2.0 assists and 1.0 steals. O'Neil goes 6-foot-10 and likely draws some time against Wolf defensively, but production should be available when not matched up.
Bargain Options
Dale Bonner, G, Ohio State ($4,600)
The Buckeyes spread their minutes and production across many players, so I'm willing to take a paydown option as a result. Bonner has posted some form of double-digit fantasy points in each of his last 10 games, though only twice topping the 20-point threshold. He's averaged 22.7 minutes and will be at least somewhat involved in their success as Ohio State is expected to score at least 76.
Bronny James, G, USC ($4,400)
On a slate like this, why not? The name had James valued as high as $5,000, and he's turned in at least 12.75 DKP from three of four outings. The Trojans should flirt with 75 points, starting guard Boogie Ellis is in a funk, and they're nearly double-digit favorites. No breakout performance is coming, but a multi-faceted middling stat line from Bronny will do.
