This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
DraftKings gives us a six-game main slate, with a three-game evening overlap. The presence of Seton Hall-Creighton doesn't make this a typical full Mid Major Friday. I'm personally treated to the inclusion of the Richmond Spiders, where I've worked the scorers' table for the past 17 years, so I know both them and the Bonnies well.
Colorado State's David Roddy ($9,000) and Fresno State's Orlando Robinson ($8,000) lead the way price wise, and while both have slate-breaking potential, the matchups don't present favorably.
Top Targets
Ryan Rollins, G, Toledo ($8,400)
For as much as I want to pay up for forwards and down for guards, Rollins looks like a must play Friday. He's had a 31.5 DKP floor (3.75x) and 56.75 DKP ceiling (6.75x) ceiling across Toledo's last seven outings. Pair that with a matchup against Ball State's 307th-ranked defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and a total of 155.5 where Toledo is favored; there's sure to be high usage, but rightfully so.
Kevin Marfo, F, Quinnipiac ($8,000)
At no point in time did I expect this column to feature two options from this game (more below as I jump around while writing), but that's where things landed. If we're fading the top two forwards on the slate, or simply looking for similar upside at a bit of a discount, Marfo appears to be the man. He's averaging a double-double for the second season as a Bobcat and chips in with 4.1 assists to boot. Carrying a 26.8 percent usage rate into Friday, Marfo put up a whopping 43.0 DKP against St. Peters in an earlier meeting, scoring 13 points and pulling down 20 rebounds.
Middle Tier
Grant Golden, F, Richmond ($6,800)
This game represents the second-highest total, and DraftKings did us no favors with position eligibility from the Bonnies, as four of their five starters' only eligibility is at guard... and they all play 30+ minutes. Enter Golden, who's not taken a leap in his sixth season, but remains incredibly stable. And he's in a plus matchup here. He's never put up less than 23.5 DKP in his career against Bona; largely thanks to his ability in the high post as a passer. He can use his size on pick and rolls to score and get offensive boards, but also will be an elite passer while dragging Osun Osunniyi ($7,500) away from the basket.
KC Ndefo, F, St. Peters ($6,400)
The Peacocks have a decent implied total of 71.5 points and put up 73 points in an earlier meeting with Quinnipiac, a game where Ndefo posted 41.25 DKP. He's wildly inconsistent in the scoring column, which leads to an average of just 9.6 ppg, so there's certainly volatility. But I'll trust him in this spot against a Bobcat defense that ranks 293rd in defensive efficiency, and we should get a moderate pace boost with Quinnipiac checking in at 61st nationally in tempo.
Values
Kenan Blackshear, G, Nevada ($5,600)
It's tough getting clear injury info on these type of games, but if we assume Grant Sherfield ($8,300) sits, Blackshear figures to again be the beneficiary. He's had a 24.5 DKP floor in five of the last six, even when Sherfield was healthy, which is a few points north of 4x. Fresno checks in at 355th in tempo and 28th in defensive efficiency via KenPom, so tempering expectations is prudent. But while the reward isn't great, the risk isn't either.
Ra'Heim Moss, G, Toledo ($5,200)
Forgive me for not offering many dissenting opinions here, but with this 155.5 point total, and only one other game on the slate higher than 140, the chalk is probably right. Toledo has posted between 82 and 94 points in 10 of 11 conference games, and facing Ball State's woeful defense, noted above, why should we expect less? Moss has gone for 78.5 DKP in his last two while failing to reach 4x just three times in conference.
