This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We wait and wait all year for March Madness to get here and then poof, it is done in the blink of an eye. This edition has truly been mad, unprecedented in its unpredictability. Does San Diego St. have one more surprise in store for us tonight? Or, does UCONN continue down its path of destruction and reclaim blue-blood status with another national title? Let's dive in for the last time this season.
Connecticut vs 
San Diego State
All good things come to an end, and UCONN seems to be the killjoy of this tournament. The Huskies exploited Miami's porous defense and made life miserable on the offensive end for an easy romp into the Championship. All signs point to UCONN doing the same to SDSU. If the high-flying Hurricanes could only muster 59 points, the offensively-challenged Aztecs could be in for a long night. SDSU profiles similarly to St. Mary's and Seton Hall, two teams with top-20 defenses but offenses that lag well behind. UCONN handled St. Mary's in the second round with a 15-point victory and split against Seton Hall in the regular season (1-point road loss, 9-point home victory). The Huskies have turned things on in the Tournament, and I just don't see how SDSU has enough firepower to keep up.
College Basketball Best Bet: Connecticut -7.5 (universal)
Connecticut vs San Diego State
As mentioned, of UCONN's opponents this year, SDSU profiles similarly to Seton Hall and St. Mary's. In those three games, there were 67, 67, and 64 possessions with 133, 119 and 125 points scored, respectively. KenPom predicts this to be a 65-possession game, so it stands to reason that the points total should be closer to 125. Even in the tournament games where SDSU was "sped up" and possessions reached -- 69 (Charleston) and 74 (Alabama) -- the points scored in those games were 120 and 135. UCONN has been ridiculously efficient, but the factors that would cause an over here are outliers to games that preview similarly to this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Connecticut/San Diego State UNDER 132.5 (universal)
Connecticut vs San Diego State
I have one player prop to give out after researching today's game. San Diego State is one of the best 3-point defending teams in the country and is elite at taking away a team's top perimeter option. Charleston's Ryan Larson and Reyne Smith were a combined 2-12 from three for 18 total points. Furman's JP Pegues and Marcus Foster were held to a combined 15 points on 3-14 shooting from three. Brandon Miller, Mark Sears and Jahvon Quinerly were 2-18 from three for Alabama. Creighton was 2-17 from three as a team. And FAU's Johnell Davis only attempted three 3-pointers, missing all of them. The Aztec defense will be dialed in on Jordan Hawkins tonight, and his game total is set at 14.5 on FanDuel at -102 odds. The public knows his name and loves points, so the value is on the Aztecs elite defense and the under on Hawkins.
College Basketball Best Bet: Jordan Hawkins UNDER 14.5 points (@ FanDuel)
Championship Monday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Monday, April 4:
- UCONN -7.5 (universal)
- UCONN/SDSU UNDER 132.5 (universal)
- Jordan Hawkins UNDER 14.5 points (@ FanDuel)
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the College Basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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