Bracketology 101: Factors to Consider in 2015-16

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Updated on March 12, 2016 3:13PM EST

Here we are on the Eve of Selection Sunday, watching conference tournaments come to a close as we wait ever so anxiously for the committee to determine this year's matchups in the event that we call, "The Big Dance". For passionate college basketball fans, this event represents everything there is to love about sports as we know them. Over the course of the next week, 68 teams from different areas and multiple conferences will embark on a journey that they'll remember for the rest of their lives. Some teams come with greater expectations than others, and those expectations are laid upon them by none other than us, the critics and the fans. The favorites or the power-house teams will listen to their coaches talk about focus, one game at a time, in hopes of not getting ahead of themselves on their way to the ultimate goal. Some of the smaller, lower seeded teams will look to re-write the history books in hopes of becoming this year's Cinderella Story. Everyone starts with a clean slate and everyone gets their shot to win it all. For all 68 teams, the next couple of weeks will represent the last time that they get to spend together as a group, and for many of the seniors, it represents the last time that they'll ever put on a jersey. 68 teams, one champion, and a ton of excitement in between.

Each year I spend hours filling out my brackets and it makes me realize how

Each year I spend hours filling out my brackets and it makes me realize how indecisive I can be at times. For many college hoops fans, it probably brings out the exact same thing. If you get it wrong, you'll have to wait an entire year to compete for bragging rights amongst your buddies all over again. In many instances, there is money involved which ups the stakes even more. While I'm making out my bracket, I begin with the easier picks, No. 1 over No. 16, No. 2 over No. 15 etc. It's when I get to the tougher games with two evenly matched teams where I tend to take my time, struggling to determine which squad has a better chance of advancing. If you take the No. 12 over the No. 5 that every analyst on TV is telling you to take, you assume the risk of being at a large disadvantage against those who pick all favorites. However, if you pick strictly higher seeded teams throughout the tournament, you have no chance of winning. This year's tournament might include the most balanced field that we've seen in 10 years, and you could argue for a solid 20-25 teams that could realistically win it all. While you still have your top 4-5 teams that are more complete than most, you don't have that one team that is head and shoulders above everyone else in the field. The parody will certainly make for an exciting tournament, but it's also going to make some of these crucial decisions that much tougher to make.

To try and help you along the way, here are seven things to consider when trying to compare two evenly matched teams. Keep in mind that if one of these qualities is ultimately going to decide who you take, then one team needs to be substantially better at it than their opponent. If they both possess the same quality, then it's irrelevant.

Depth

A team's overall depth relates to how many players see a solid amount of playing time on a regular basis, and it's extremely important in determining the outcome of close games. If a team lacks depth and one of their top players happens to get into foul trouble, they're forced to play guys that don't see a lot of action and don't have much experience in tight situations. If each of their starters are forced to play 35-plus minutes on a nightly basis, then fatigue becomes a factor late in games. When a team is blessed with great depth, they have a large advantage over most teams because they can overcome fatigue and foul trouble by continuing to rotate 8-10 guys that are equally as talented as the next. When you're torn between one team or another, take a look at their statistics to see how many guys average 15-20 minutes or better.

Free Throw Shooting

We would all likely agree that the majority of games that come down to the wire are usually influenced in some way by late game free throw shooting. If a team is leading by multiple possessions as the game nears the final two minutes, the trailing team starts fouling which forces players to make crucial free throws under extreme pressures. If you're not looking at a team's overall free throw shooting percentage prior to making tough selections, then you're not doing yourself any favors. If a team shoots a low percentage as a group, at least make sure they've got 2-3 players that are shooting for a high percentage, as they'll obviously be getting the ball late in the game. Any coach will tell you that throughout the course of a game, free throws are one of the biggest determining factors in deciding the outcome. Team three-point shooting should also be assessed prior to making a pick.

Turnover Margin

Turnover margin is the ratio between the amount of turnovers that a team forces on their opponent to the amount of turnovers that they commit themselves. The team that wins the turnover margin in the majority of close games is usually the team that comes out on top. There is nothing worse than an empty possession in which your team fails to get a shot up. Not to mention, turnovers usually lead to easy buckets in transition for the opponent. Take a look at the team's turnover margin before determining who you you're going to take. If they play similar competition and one team has a large advantage over the other, that's a good indicator of who might win.

Guard Play

This is one of the qualities that you'll hear a lot of analysts talk about on selection Sunday, and it rarely ever fails. Without good guard play, your team has no shot of winning it all. If you look back at the last 15 National Champions, each and every one of them were blessed with great guards, who had the ability to take over a game when needed. Guards run the offense which means they're responsible for breaking down the defense and creating shots for others. The ball is in their hands more than anyone and when the game comes down to the wire, they go to the foul stripe with outcome on the line.

Experience

Although we're in the midst of the new one-and-done era and senior leadership is slowly becoming a thing of the past, experience can still be very important in tournament games. The bright lights, roller-coaster swings, and the overall atmosphere of the tournament can be too much for some players to handle. Let's face it, these kids are under enormous pressure during the tournament, as some of them have an entire state's hopes and dreams riding on their shoulders. There is something to be said about having guys who have been there before and are more comfortable under those circumstances. If you're having a tough time picking a game, sometimes taking the team with experienced, battle tested guys is the way to go.

Recent Success

The beauty of the tournament is that every team gets a clean slate at the beginning, regardless of how they've been playing over the couple of weeks leading up to it. However, the way that a team is playing in the couple of weeks leading up to it can be very telling in regards to how that team might continue to play once the tournament starts. UCONN entered the Big East Tournament as a No. 9 seed in 2011 and Kemba Walker led them to five wins in five straight days to claim the Big East crown. That team rode the momentum into the Big Dance where they won six straight games on their way to a National Title. If a team is trending down heading into the tournament, the chemistry might be bad and guys might be banged up. If a team is hot in the weeks leading up to the tournament, then they're likely rolling on all cylinders at just the right time.

Coaching

If you're having a hard time picking a game and you've considered the six other areas listed above, consider the coaching. Anyone could argue that all 68 of these coaches are great at what they do, and they've gotten their programs this far for a reason. However, many of them are coaching teams that were expected to be here. It's the coaches that have taken multiple teams deep into the tournament that weren't expected to be there, that are worth considering. Those coaches just find a way to win in March regardless of seeds, matchups, or overall talent.

There is no guarantee that a team will win based on one or two specific areas, but looking at all angles and considering the analytics will certainly help put you in the best position to succeed. Good Luck and enjoy the madness!