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The Importance of WRs in the Top 16 of ADP

Written by 
Peter Schoenke
Published on August 1, 2013

I've been debating my RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today  (11AM-2PM ET on XM 87 / Sirius 210) co-host Chris Liss the past few weeks over the merits of taking a WR early in draft. My main point is that they are safe and have a high floor. It's a very viable strategy to start WR-WR with your first two picks (outside of the top five overall). In fact, according to my previous research, it may even be the optimal strategy since my math shows wide receivers drop off in value faster than running backs.

But here's a table that drives home the point.

Performance of Wide Receivers Taken in Top 16 ADP Since 1998

YearName
QQ|>ADPQQ|>VBDQQ|>Position Ranking
1998AntonioFreemanQQ|>12.77QQ|>103QQ|>2
1999RandyMossQQ|>7.62QQ|>97QQ|>2
1999AntonioFreemanQQ|>14.26QQ|>24QQ|>20
2000RandyMossQQ|>13.4QQ|>123QQ|>1
2000MarvinHarrisonQQ|>11.06QQ|>115QQ|>2
2001MarvinHarrisonQQ|>12.87QQ|>110QQ|>1
2001RandyMossQQ|>7.59QQ|>55QQ|>5
2002MarvinHarrisonQQ|>15.02QQ|>119QQ|>1
2002TerrellOwensQQ|>11.46QQ|>101QQ|>2
2002RandyMossQQ|>11.14QQ|>65QQ|>5
2003MarvinHarrisonQQ|>12.93QQ|>83QQ|>5
2003TerrellOwensQQ|>15.72QQ|>60QQ|>12
2004MarvinHarrisonQQ|>15.91QQ|>74QQ|>5
2004RandyMossQQ|>12.24QQ|>28QQ|>19
2005RandyMossQQ|>13.98QQ|>32QQ|>15
2006SteveSmithQQ|>15.63QQ|>60QQ|>8
2008TerrellOwensQQ|>14.51QQ|>53QQ|>9
2008RandyMossQQ|>9.85QQ|>51QQ|>10
2009LarryFitzgeraldQQ|>8.71QQ|>75QQ|>5
2009AndreJohnsonQQ|>12.75QQ|>100QQ|>1
2009RandyMossQQ|>13.26QQ|>92QQ|>2
2010AndreJohnsonQQ|>6.92QQ|>56QQ|>6
2010LarryFitzgeraldQQ|>12.19QQ|>35QQ|>16
2010RandyMossQQ|>14.26QQ|>-46QQ|>67
2011RoddyWhiteQQ|>13.21QQ|>62QQ|>8
2011AndreJohnsonQQ|>13.56QQ|>-54QQ|>71
2011CalvinJohnsonQQ|>15.65QQ|>149QQ|>1
2012CalvinJohnsonQQ|>6.63QQ|>149QQ|>1

Only two of 28 picks since 1998 in the top 16 have been "busts" - ie. not finishing in the top 24 of their position [For a league that starts two WRs, that gives them value over a replacement player or a positive VBD].

And when you take a WR early, he's not just clearing the minimum. He's usually a top guy.

Only 7 of the 28 receivers finished outside the top 10 at the position at the end of the season. That means you had a 75 percent chance of getting a top -10 receiver by taking a pick above.

And 16 of the top 28 receivers finished in the top five overall at their position at the end of the season. That means you had a 57 percent chance of landing a top-five receiver.

That bodes well for Calvin Johnson (4),  A.J. Green (13), Dez Bryant (15) and Demaryius Thomas (16), who all have ADPs in the top 16 at MockDraftCentral.com.