I promised a sleeper target list a while back when I covered my now annual Sleepers Series, and though I'm later than intended, I'm also just in time for the biggest draft weekend of the year. Last spring I was challenged by Kevin Payne to provide specific targets after combing through a lengthy list of potential sleepers in the 2011 series. I settled on 15 candidates that I targeted late in all drafts, the most successful of which ended up being Beanie Wells and DeMarco Murray, whom incidentally landed on zero of my rosters. Since I greatly expanded the number of players covered in this year's Sleepers Series, I decided to up my target list a bit to 20 names for 2012.
In a league where passing rules, I want to stockpile late-round running backs like nobody else. There are so few sure things at the position and so many breakout candidates that it makes sense to grab a couple early reliable guys and then load up on some of the upside options you see below.
That doesn't mean there aren't great buy-low targets at receiver—as my top two are pass catchers—but there are just so many up-and-coming receivers and so many safe options at the top of the draft that sleeper wideouts will be easily identifiable on waivers all year, while there's more likely to be a dearth of tailbacks.
So without further ado, let's get into the list:
1. Randall Cobb, WR (GB) – Cobb is a cross between Percy Harvin and Victor Cruz and he has Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. Even with Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Jermichael Finley, there is enough upside for Cobb to approach 1,000 yards and double-digit scores. Only a handful of players in the league can match his ability to turn a short pass into a long score every time he touches the ball.
2. Kyle Rudolph, TE (MIN)
– Christian Ponder's best friend this year will be his Gronk-esque (6-foot-6, 260 lbs.) second-year tight end with good speed, huge, strong hands and a catch radius the size of a Buick. And that means Rudolph won't be limited to being just a red zone weapon. Instead, he'll top 100 targets in a breakout campaign.
3. David Wilson, RB (NYG)
– Getting a good hold of Wilson looks about as easy as trying to grab a bar of soap as it squirts across a Slip-N-Slide. He's so quick and elusive he often makes defenders look like they're stuck in quicksand. Having a veteran with a history of serious foot problems doesn't exactly hurt his stock either.
4. Russell Wilson, QB (SEA)
– With amazing poise for a rookie and game-changing athleticism, Wilson creates "wow" plays in bunches every time he steps on the field. Though it's wise to not get too excited over preseason play, I'm confident Wilson will carry that over to the regular season as both a passer and a runner. The praise is too high and absurdly soon in his career, but Wilson looks like a combination of Michael Vick and Drew Brees to me.
5. Ryan Williams, RB (AZ)
– I love that Williams' idol is Walter Payton. And I love hearing about how hard he worked to rehab the knee he tore up last year. It sounds as if he lived in the Cardinals' facility to get ready for this season and I believe the coaches will ultimately reward him with the starting job and a big role in the offense. Wells' days in the desert are numbered. Williams' quickness, vision and most importantly, heart, will be as much a part of Wells' demise as the former first-rounder's own knee problems.
6. Rashad Jennings, RB (JAC)
– Jennings, who has a career average of 5.4 yards per carry, looked impressive in racking up 209 yards rushing on 47 preseason carries. With excellent size (6-1, 228) and deceptive speed, Jennings brings a slashing style similar to All-World fantasy star Arian Foster. With Maurice Jones-Drew still sitting at home and Jennings slated to start Week 1, I feel very good pulling the trigger on Jennings, particularly in keeper leagues since he'll be a free agent next spring.
7. Mikel Leshoure, RB (DET)
– His injury woes scare me, but they also please me a bit since they'll drive his price tag down. Leshoure is a battering ram with speed who reminds me of a poor man's Larry Johnson. The Lions did the right thing by resting his sore hamstring and when Kevin Smith gets beaten silly by the 49ers D in Week 2, I expect Leshoure to swoop in and steal the feature role just as he comes off suspension.
8. Evan Royster, RB (WAS)
– With the release of Tim Hightower, it's possible Royster's stock will rise in drafts this weekend, but if he can still be had late, he's easily worth a role of the dice. Though Alfred Morris looked impressive in the team's third preseason game and Roy Helu outshined him in the fourth, Royster offers more experience than Morris and more durability than Helu. He could wind up the feature back in a very run-friendly offense before long.
9. Jon Baldwin, WR (KC)
– Baldwin has all the physical tools to dominate smaller corners and by all accounts he's done just that on a daily basis in the Chiefs' training camp. Dwayne Bowe's return will mean less targets during the season, but it will also mean less coverage for this behemoth 6-foot-4, 230-pound target.
10. Jake Locker, QB (TEN)
– What Locker lacks in accuracy he more than makes up for with his will and athleticism. He never gives up on a play and can create big gains by scrambling from the pocket to find an open receiver or weaving through defenses for first downs. With an awesome assortment of weapons around him (with or without Kenny Britt), Locker should be poised for a big season.
11. Jacquizz Rodgers, RB (ATL)
– Quizz is short, but he's not small. Though only 5-foot-6 he's nearly 200 lbs., and with excellent quickness, Rodgers is just as capable of going between the tackles as he is going around them. With the Falcons upping the tempo of their offense, he figures to see a lot more field time in his second season.
12. Brandon LaFell, WR (CAR)
– Though Greg Olsen is more accurately the No. 2 option in the passing game for Cam Newton, LaFell should still see significant opportunities as the second wideout opposite an aging Steve Smith. With length and deep speed working in his favor, LaFell should make great use of Newton's big arm.
13. Kendall Wright, WR (TEN)
– Wright is the most explosive player in Tennessee not named Chris Johnson. With Britt out for Week 1 and likely to be slow out of the gates coming off multiple knee surgeries, the ultra quick Wright will get off to a fast start and prove his first-round worth to the Titans and fantasy owners alike as this year's version of Torrey Smith.
14. Kendall Hunter, RB (SF)
– Sooner or later, Frank Gore will hit a wall. The perennial injury risk is approaching the dreaded 3-0 and could be falling off the running back cliff before the season is out. Hunter, his heir apparent, will get leaned on much more this year to be sure he's the future in San Fran. The shifty mighty mite with homerun speed won't disappoint and is a particularly valuable commodity in keeper and dynasty leagues.
15. Michael Floyd, WR (AZ)
– A highly underwhelming preseason combined with the seriously shaky QB and offensive line play expected in the desert has severely dropped Floyd's stock to the point where he could be a major steal. He may have only shown it on one circus touchdown catch in the fourth preseason game, but he has immense ability, and he'll be a fixture opposite Larry Fitzgerald sooner rather than later.
16. Jonathan Dwyer, RB (PIT)
– Isaac Redman has already been experiencing pain in his hip and ankle this summer and is still an entirely unproven player. Rashard Mendenhall won't land on the PUP list but remains unlikely to be back to full strength anytime soon. When he's seen the field, Dwyer has proven to be the most explosive and efficient of the three Steelers backs. Expect him to steal carries early from Redman and possibly rob the starting job outright before Mendenhall returns.
17. LeGarrette Blount, RB (TB)
– A motivated Blount could be a major stud if Doug Martin went down. Just check the highlights of him hurdling defenders as a rookie or running through Packers on a phenomenal score last year and tell me otherwise.
18. T.Y. Hilton, WR (IND)
– Andrew Luck is going to throw for over 3,500 yards this year—at least. While Reggie Wayne will surely get his and Luck's rookie tight ends figure to carve out a sizeable chunk, a nice portion of his targets will go in the direction of Hilton. A speedster who can line up all over and run every route, Hilton is the big play component of Indy's offense and has the upside to be DeSean Jackson 2.0 very soon.
19. Robert Turbin, RB (SEA)
– The SeaHulk is a big, bruising superhero of a handcuff and with Marshawn Lynch already hampered by back spasms, Turbin is a name to remember. He's a different style runner, but he has the potential to have a DeMarco Murray-like explosion if Lynch is forced to sit for extended time.
20. Alfred Morris, RB (WAS)
– As long as Mike Shanahan is around in Washington the Redskins backfield should be replete with sleepers. Morris may have been a sixth round pick out of tiny Florida Atlantic, but Morris is anything but tiny himself and the quick-footed bruiser with good vision and burst may win a war of attrition within the dinged up Skins' running back committee.
So far I've been lucky enough to land stock in 13 of these names with the heaviest investments coming in Cobb, Rudolph, Jennings and Williams. This weekend I need to buy some Wilson (both David and Russell), Rodgers and Dwyer stock or I just won't be able to forgive myself.
Good luck on all final drafts, and feel free to add any names to this list you feel I should be higher on. Despite having 20 names here, there are still many I'm avoiding, and perhaps I shouldn't be.