This season we could see up to five rookie quarterbacks under center for Week 1. Here they are:
Andrew Luck (Indianapolis)
Robert Griffin III (Washington)
Ryan Tannehill (Miami)
Brandon Weeden (Cleveland)
Russell Wilson (Seattle)
To show how rare this feat is (I don't think it's ever happened in the modern era), look at who has started at quarterback as a rookie Week 1 over the past few seasons:
2011:
Cam Newton (Carolina)
Andy Dalton (Cincinnati)
2010:
Sam Bradford (St. Louis)
2009:
Matthew Stafford (Detroit)
Mark Sanchez (New York)
2008:
Joe Flacco (Baltimore)
Matt Ryan (Atlanta)
2007:
None
So what does this mean in "real" football? Rookie quarterbacks are more ready than ever for the NFL game. The college game has seen a shift to more NFL-style offenses and teams are more willing than ever to give a young player a chance over a boring veteran with limited upside (see Robert Griffin vs. Rex Grossman, Ryan Tannehill vs. Matt Moore).
For fantasy purposes what does this mean? Maybe we should be valuing rookie quarterback more, especially given the success of the two latest rookie quarterbacks – Cam Newton and Andy Dalton. Both exceeded even the loftiest expectations last season from a fantasy perspective. Given that Cam Newton finished as the second best quarterback in fantasy last season in most formats, what are the odds that Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin end up as a top-5 quarterback, 50/50? Higher? Lower?
What are the chances that Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden or Russell Wilson end up as a top-10 quarterback? Again, 50/50? Higher? Lower?