There's really no better way to build your watch list than spending some team looking over the ADP trend report. More often than not, the people participating in mock drafts are the serious owners doing their due diligence and figuring out where most of their targeted players are ending up and which sleepers they are going to be able to wait on until the lower rounds. But what they also do is tip their hands and unveil players that you may not have had on your radar. And sometimes, that can be better than any sleeper article you're going to find online.
Let's face it. Unless this is your full-time job, learning all aspects of all players on all teams is a near impossible task. You can try and read as much as you can, but it's inevitable that some things will slip through the cracks. Some guys get more press than others and there are some stories that just aren't newsworthy enough to be picked up by ESPN or the AP wire. That's where studying mock drafts and the ADP trend report come into play.
If you live in San Francisco, chances are you're going to miss some of the news coming out of Carolina or Tampa Bay. But jump into a mock draft with some dude that lives across the country and suddenly some of his homer picks in the late rounds turn into sleeper picks for you because Player X has suddenly been brought to your attention. The guy from Carolina might have a better read on who is going to win the WR3 battle for the Panthers because of his hometown coverage. And he's doing the same thing with you because he wants a better read on whether it will be Brandon Jacobs or Kendall Hunter getting the work when Frank Gore needs to bow out for a few games. Names start getting bandied about the chat rooms and the next thing you know, Player X has a 23.0|PERCENT| increase in his ADP but is still low enough that you can sneak him through late in your draft.
Below is a list of the top 10 risers right now in the ADP ranks. Some names you'll know for sure while others might be new to you but worth jotting down for future research. Currently, they are all found in a 20 pick range between pick 130 (roughly late 10th round in a standard 12-team league) and pick 150 (middle of the 12th round), but with their growing trends, some could end up going a little earlier than you'd like while others who aren't on the masses' radar, could be had a round or two later.
Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |||
Felix Jones | RB | DAL | 130.86 | 2.1|PERCENT| | 133.57 | 14.4|PERCENT| | 152.75 | 16.7|PERCENT| |
Mikel Leshoure | RB | DET | 136.68 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 139.91 | 13.9|PERCENT| | 159.34 | 16.6|PERCENT| |
Jacoby Ford | WR | OAK | 141.65 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 138.27 | 16.3|PERCENT| | 160.78 | 13.5|PERCENT| |
Brian Quick | WR | STL | 151.63 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 150.27 | 14.1|PERCENT| | 171.44 | 13.1|PERCENT| |
Earl Bennett | WR | CHI | 150.62 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 147.20 | 15.3|PERCENT| | 169.65 | 12.6|PERCENT| |
Evan Royster | RB | WAS | 146.68 | -2.9|PERCENT| | 142.37 | 15.7|PERCENT| | 164.68 | 12.3|PERCENT| |
Randy Moss | WR | SF | 137.19 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 138.81 | 10.9|PERCENT| | 153.99 | 12.2|PERCENT| |
Rueben Randle | WR | NYG | 148.555 | -2.0|PERCENT| | 145.62 | 14.3|PERCENT| | 166.511 | 12.1|PERCENT| |
Isaiah Pead | RB | STL | 153.10 | 1.7|PERCENT| | 155.75 | 10.1|PERCENT| | 171.53 | 12.0|PERCENT| |
Jacob Tamme | TE | DEN | 149.42 | 2.2|PERCENT| | 152.69 | 9.1|PERCENT| | 166.51 | 11.4|PERCENT| |
Dallas running back Felix Jones is an obvious target here as we've discussed in this series before. He is in the final year of his rookie contract, looking to make a big impact and is sitting behind DeMarco Murray and his surgically repaired ankle on the depth chart. With a strong showing, Jones could put himself in line for increased touches down the road. He's looking like a 10th or 11th round pick right now, but his upward trend is very likely to continue.
The Lions are apparently looking at a Saints-like three-headed running back system with Mikel Leshoure getting the between-the-tackle work and goal line touches whileJahvid Best would get the outside tosses and screen passes. While he himself is coming back from injury (torn Achilles), there's definitely a chance he sees an increased role given the fact that Best is prone to concussions. Similarly to Jones, Leshoure is very likely to see a continued rise in his ADP rank.
The increase for Jacoby Ford looks more like larger league doing drafts and people fishing for wide receivers who have the potential to break out but aren't necessarily at the top of the depth chart. Ford is listed as third behind Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore but should still get some looks each week. His ADP rank should hover about where it is unless something dramatic happens in camp that increases his workload.
Rams wideout Brian Quick is garnering more and more attention after running back Steven Jackson singled him out as a player who needs to make a big impact this year. Maybe it was just motivation for the rookie, but if he starts to make big plays during mini-camp, his ADP is going to shoot up fast. The Rams have said they wanted to make him a focal point, so if he and quarterback Sam Bradford build a strong rapport early. He could jump a few rounds.
You know…..Earl Bennett is on this list, but isn't he always on this list? Ever since Jay Cutler went to the Bears, all the talk centered on their relationship at Vanderbilt, but they haven't really clicked enough to shoot him up the ranks.
Evan Royster jumped on the radar late last season with back-to-back 100-plus yard performances and now offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan said that he and Roy Helu are basically on the same level right now and both are somewhat behind Tim Hightower. It looks like this could be a back and forth scenario all year which is just par for the course in a Shanahan rushing attack.
One of the biggest knocks on the 49ers offense was that they had no real play-making wide receivers. Maybe he's past his prime right now, but Randy Moss is still capable of putting up solid numbers if he can keep his attitude in check. He's seeing an increase right now that is probably based more on his name than anything else, but if he toes the line in San Francisco and becomes a "team player" we could see an increase even more as he builds a rapport with Alex Smith.
With Mario Manningham out of the picture, the new sleeper in town for the Giants isRueben Randle, the talented 6'3" 210 lb wideout out of LSU. Hakeem Nicks andVictor Cruzare still the mainstays, but if anything happens, Randle could turn into a big-time player. Sitting third on the depth chart behind two of the most talented receivers should keep his ADP down, so keep him on your radar and think about stashing him until he is ready to break out.
Isaiah Pead was signed in early June and is naturally on people's radar as Steven Jackson's back-up. We've seen Jackson banged up before, so if Pead is ready to perform at this level, he could get a chance to make an impact sooner than later. The only way it affects his ADP this early is if people start over-reaching for him after the secondary running backs are off the board.
And finally, there's Jacob Tamme who could turn out to be an outstanding sleeper pick this year. Obviously it all depends on the health of Peyton Manning though. If Manning is healthy, these two already have a solid rapport from their time in Indianapolis, so we could be looking at the next coming of Manning to [Dallas] Clark.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments, email him at [email protected].