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Early ADP Trends: Top 20 Tight Ends

What was once a throwaway position for years, tight ends are drawing a lot more respect and attention in drafts recently. Thanks to both Rob Gronkowski andJimmy Graham finishing in the top 12 for overall scoring in NFL Standard leagues (excluding quarterbacks) along with eight others who finished the season with more than 100 points, the position enjoyed its most productive season in at least the last decade; probably ever in the realm of fantasy football. In a time where most leagues are stretching the depth at the wide receiver position by starting three wideouts and one flex player, it is starting to make more sense to find yourself a high-end tight end who can put up the points of a number two receiver rather than wait and hope you can land yourself a trio of receivers found in the top 20 at their position. If you look at the point comparisons just for last year, you'll see that the top seven tight ends scored more than any receiver outside the top 30.

So with that, we're going to dedicate just as much time to the tight ends as we would any other skill position. Especially because we are seeing a growing trend in the ADP rankings for the last three years in which they are coming off the board sooner than later in most drafts thanks to "pioneers" likeAntonio Gates andTony Gonzalez. Below is a list of the ADP trends for the top 20 tight ends that we will continue to re-visit as draft season nears.

Top 20 Tight Ends

Current ADPChange1 Week AgoChange2 Weeks AgoOverall Trend
25.Jimmy GrahamNO26.560.4|PERCENT|26.670.2|PERCENT|26.720.6|PERCENT|
27.Rob GronkowskiNE26.781.2|PERCENT|27.103.3|PERCENT|28.004.6|PERCENT|
63.Antonio GatesSD63.74-0.5|PERCENT|63.390.1|PERCENT|63.48-0.4|PERCENT|
69.Aaron HernandezNE68.23-0.6|PERCENT|67.831.9|PERCENT|69.131.3|PERCENT|
75.Jason WittenDAL75.63-1.0|PERCENT|74.84-0.8|PERCENT|74.22-1.9|PERCENT|
77.Vernon DavisSF77.210.9|PERCENT|77.901.5|PERCENT|79.032.4|PERCENT|
83.Jermichael FinleyGB82.880.5|PERCENT|83.333.2|PERCENT|85.973.7|PERCENT|
84.Fred DavisWAS83.230.6|PERCENT|83.761.4|PERCENT|84.902.0|PERCENT|
99.Brandon PettigrewDET100.541.6|PERCENT|102.167.9|PERCENT|110.279.7|PERCENT|
100.Jermaine GreshamCIN102.891.6|PERCENT|104.547.5|PERCENT|112.339.2|PERCENT|
107.Jared CookTEN107.641.3|PERCENT|109.078.9|PERCENT|118.8310.4|PERCENT|
114.Brent CelekPHI116.162.0|PERCENT|118.459.8|PERCENT|130.0512.0|PERCENT|
115.Tony GonzalezATL117.921.4|PERCENT|119.589.1|PERCENT|130.5010.7|PERCENT|
120.Owen DanielsHOU121.582.2|PERCENT|124.4010.4|PERCENT|137.1012.8|PERCENT|
124.Dustin KellerNYJ127.091.9|PERCENT|129.4811.3|PERCENT|144.1513.4|PERCENT|
128.Kellen WinslowSEA131.283.0|PERCENT|135.1710.2|PERCENT|148.9313.4|PERCENT|
134.Coby FleenerIND138.572.7|PERCENT|142.3511.7|PERCENT|159.0514.8|PERCENT|
141.Greg OlsenCAR145.383.8|PERCENT|150.9315.8|PERCENT|174.8520.3|PERCENT|
146.Jacob TammeDEN151.063.7|PERCENT|156.7216.1|PERCENT|182.9220.4|PERCENT|
170.Martellus BennettNYG173.042.5|PERCENT|177.3312.3|PERCENT|199.1515.1|PERCENT|

Overall

Given the history of the position, it almost feels strange to discuss tight ends coming off the board in the late second/early third round of most drafts. But sure enough, Gronkowski, last year's sixth highest scorer and Graham, 12th highest, are flying off draft boards at a rapid rate. It might be difficult to justify taking them this high given the fact that New England has beefed up its receiving corps and defenses will likely key in on Graham a little harder, so watch to see if they start to trend downward at all. Also, many owners will get nervous about how thin the running back position is and might opt to take a lesser back in lieu of a top tight end, which could help drive down their ADP and give you more of a bargain pick-up.

You can see by the current ADP that there is a significant drop-off between which round Graham and Gronk go and when the next tier of tight ends comes off the board. And how could there not be as there was roughly a 60 point difference between Graham's totals and those of the next best, Aaron Hernandez. However, there's only about a 20 point difference between Hernandez and last year's 10th most productive tight end. So if you don't grab one of the top two, there's plenty of time to grab someone at the next level. That is, of course, unless we see an even greater ADP increase for those "back eight" players.

The overall trend increases that you see right now from the ninth to the 20th tight end are primarily due to larger leagues drafting. Yes, the position is gaining in popularity, but if you also look at the trend report on an overall scale, you'll see that same increase for each position, including kickers and defenses.

Bottom line: If you want either one of the top two tight ends, you're going to have to invest a top 2 pick unless you draft first and can swing one on the turn in the third round. Any other top 10 tight end and you're going to have to use one of your first eight picks. There's no more waiting.

Notes

Jason Witten, once the favorite target of Tony Romo, has seemingly lost his luster over the past year or so with the emergence of stronger receivers like Miles Austin and Dez Bryant. As the Cowboys utilize DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones a little more in their offense and these receivers continue to gain the confidence of Romo, Witten might not be the default option anymore. He's aleady down slightly over the last two weeks and that trend could continue as others likeVernon Davis and Jermichael Finley become more frequent targets in their respective systems.

Washington tight endFred Davis has seen an increase in targets over the last two seasons and that number could go up even further if Robert Griffin III decides to lean on him a little more in the passing game. It's definitely not uncommon to see a rookie quarterback build up a solid rapport with his tight end early on.

Watch forJermaine Gresham's ADP rank to start trending upwards even further once camp opens up. Andy Dalton hasA.J. Green as his number one guy, but after that, the receiving corps is crazy thin and unreliable. Gresham has good hands and could turn into a heavily favored target this season.

Maybe it's injuries or maybe it's the new found reliance on the ground game, but it always seems like Owen Daniels is underrated on draft day. A lot will depend on Matt Schaub's health obviously, and that of top wideout Andre Johnson, but Daniels could get some decent red zone looks this year, especially if defenses start keying in on the run.

And finally, my sleeper tight end of the year goes to Denver's Jacob Tamme. If Peyton Manning is capable of regular playing time under center, then this reunion of former Colts could be an explosive duo. Manning built up a solid rapport with Tamme whenDallas Clark was injured and while he gets his feet wet in the Denver offense, he could lean his tight end heavily in the early goings.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over a decade on a variety of web sites.  You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or for questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at [email protected].