During the past week RotoWire rounded up a group of some of the best fantasy minds in the business to conduct two 14-team mock drafts, one standard and one PPR, both snake. I was fortunate enough to get an invite. Though I felt like the last guy picked in gym class, I think I held my own with these great analysts.
For each mock I came up with a strategy that I felt would land me the most competitive lineup. The following are the picks of my standard league team and the thought process that went into each choice, and in some cases, who I would have preferred at that spot. I'll have a breakdown of my PPR team in the next few days.
Standard Results
Round 1, Pick 1 – Arian Foster, RB (HOU) (1st overall)
I generally hate having the first pick of drafts, but by the time the mock was over I was pleased with the results. Though I'm sure it would have created an uproar, and I may have prevented myself from ever getting asked to do another mock draft, I very nearly took Aaron Rodgers with the first pick. And not at all because I'm a huge Packers fan. I strongly believe that to be able to win a league this deep, you must have an elite quarterback. So because I consider Rodgers to be the most consistent, highest upside QB in the league, he had to be an option here despite the faux pas of taking a quarterback first overall. Ultimately, the decision came down to two things: 1.) I realized I could get an upper echelon QB with my second pick and 2.) it was impossible to resist Foster's playoff schedule (New England, Minnesota and Indianapolis twice in final four games). Having the game's most complete running back against a favorable schedule should offset the difference between Rodgers and the guy I got in Round 2, so that realization made the choice much easier.
Round 2, Pick 14 – Peyton Manning, QB (DEN) (28th overall)
I didn't have to sprain too many muscles with this pick. Though some will knock it, he was the last elite level quarterback I trusted left on the board and I knew he wouldn't be around when it came back to me in the fourth. I think Manning will be back with a vengeance this year and has the weapons in Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker to post some of the best numbers of his career. I'd rank him ahead of Matt Stafford and maybe even Cam Newton in any standard formats.
Round 3, Pick 1 – Jamaal Charles, RB (KC) (29th overall)
I never expected to get a back with Charles' upside as my No. 2, so when he fell I had to pounce. Though it's a calculated risk coming off the ACL injury, like Manning, it's well worth the gamble for the potentially elite results.
Round 4, Pick 14 – Percy Harvin, WR (MIN) (56th overall)
I felt completely comfortable waiting for my top receivers. I'm one of the few that still values running backs much more highly than receivers, so those had to be addressed earlier. Additionally, receiver is a much deeper position and one that typically sees more new faces crack the top-10 or 20 each year than running backs. Snagging Harvin here, with his ability to rack up rushing yards as well, and being his team's clear-cut No. 1 option in the passing game, was a steal in my mind. However, because I knew I'd be starting three running backs, I would have likely made this or my fifth round pick Doug Martin had he fallen. I think Martin has the chance to be special from Day 1.
Round 5, Pick 1 – Eric Decker, WR (DEN) (57th overall)
Decker was another great value at receiver. I knew I wanted him coming in, particularly when I could pair him with Manning. If Martin had been available I'm genuinely not sure if I'd have made Harvin or Decker my top receiver. Snagging balls from Manning, the 90+ catch mark wouldn't be surprising from Decker, and I could see him outperforming his more heralded teammate, Thomas, who will be going higher in just about every draft. I strongly considered Kenny Britt with one of these picks as well because his upside is tantalizing, but ultimately his history of poor conditioning scared me off considering he's coming off that ACL tear.
Round 6, Pick 14 – Mikel Leshoure, RB (DET) (84th overall)
I ignored the legal issues facing Leshoure to take what I feel could be a major breakout player in 2012. He's built to easily handle 250+ carries and could become an every-down back if Jahvid Best's career gets cut short due to his concussion issues, which would not surprise me. The value was simply too good to pass up considering the big need for a reliable back in Detroit and the talent Leshoure displayed in college. The injury concerns and off-field issues will scare off many, but not me.
Round 7, Pick 1 – Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR (OAK) (85th overall)
I'm hoping that I can land DHB in all my leagues as a No. 3 receiver. After finally getting it in Year 3, he finished the final five games of 2011 by snatching 29 passes for 456 yards and three scores. Heyward-Bey has the size of a true No. 1 receiver and the speed of a deep-threat specialist. He's just dripping with upside. Had he been off the board, I would have been okay with Torrey Smith or Michael Floyd as my third starter, but was happy to get DHB over them because he's further along developmentally and has a better passer getting him the ball.
Round 8, Pick 14 – LeGarrette Blount, RB (TB) (112th overall)
It was a tough choice between Blount and Ben Tate for my top backup running back. On the one hand, if anything happened to Foster, Tate could be a monster. On the other hand, I expect Blount to get more opportunities in Greg Schiano's offense than Tate in Houston. Even though I see Martin as the starter in Tampa, I could see Blount getting a heavy dose of goal line work and posting close to double digit scores, something that's hard to find this late in the draft. That thought broke the coin flip.
Round 9, Pick 1 – Jared Cook, TE (TEN) (113th overall)
I will wait in every league for a tight end. I'm not willing to spend a high round pick on Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski, and the position is deep enough that quality starters can be found late. Cook went crazy at the end of 2011, going off for 335 yards and a score over the last three games. It seems he's finally translating his superior athletic gifts to the field and that could make him a major steal in 2012.
Round 10, Pick 14 – Evan Royster, RB (WAS) (140th overall)
Another player that opened my eyes at the end of 2011, Royster racked up 304 total yards over the final two games and appeared to be a natural fit in Mike Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme. While Roy Helu will more than likely enter as the starter, you never know when Shanahan will switch backs and Royster would just be an injury away from taking over as a feature back in a run-friendly offense.
Round 11, Pick 1 – Earl Bennett, WR (CHI) (141st overall)
In three games in 2011 when both Jay Cutler and Bennett were healthy, Bennett caught 14 balls for 251 yards and a score. And that was with Bennett essentially playing the No. 1 receiver for Chicago. With Brandon Marshall in town to draw coverage, Bennett could play the Eddie Royal role from Cutler's last year as a Bronco, when Royal piled up 90+ catches.
Round 12, Pick 14 – Randall Cobb, WR (GB) (168th overall)
Grabbing a weapon in one of the league's best passing attacks made sense this late, and Cobb has significant upside as a slot receiver in Green Bay, particularly if Donald Driver is released. Had either been there, I may have taken Golden Tate or Jon Baldwin, both of whom could have more opportunities, and grabbed Cobb with my next pick. I also nearly took a chance on Brian Quick, which in retrospect, I would have liked to done with my next selection.
Round 13, Pick 1 – Ryan Grant, RB (FA) (169th overall)
The value here was good enough that I couldn't ignore it, though in hindsight, I would have liked to get a higher upside player, like Quick or possibly Robert Turbin. I strongly considered Mike Goodson here as well because I don't see Darren McFadden surviving the year (shocking, right?) and could see Goodson being strong in the Raiders' offense. But Grant has the potential to land at least a split of a backfield in Green Bay or elsewhere, so there's certainly good possibility with him, albeit with limited upside.
Round 14, Pick 14 – Kansas City Chiefs DEF/Special Teams (196th overall)
I never take a defense or kicker before the last two rounds, and stayed true to that. Given my indecision though with my previous pick, I would have been happy to have made an exception and gotten the Steelers, Texans or Giants D. But I can't complain with KC. I can see them taking a big step this year with Eric Berry returning and Justin Houston providing a major lift to the pass rush.
Round 15, Pick 15 – Matt Bryant, K (ATL) (197th overall)
It's a kicker. He plays in a good offense, in a dome and they struggle to finish drives sometimes. What more do you need?