Every year, we hear advice about how it's time to "buy low" on struggling stars like Albert Pujols, Giancarlo Stanton and Robinson Cano. "Get them now for cheap before they heat up!" Except that the market for superstars - at least in competitive leagues - usually doesn't move much after one bad month. (Whether it should in these cases is another question). It's more likely that the Pujols and Stanton owners are doubling down, figuring that only a hot streak from a player of that caliber can undo the damage that's already been done.
That doesn't mean you can't take advantage of the market's early overreaction, but you'll have to aim a little lower and take on quite a bit more risk. The players listed below are those who should be available at an actual discount. Yes, they're ugly - and their prospects are uncertain - but taken as an entire portfolio I believe they'll almost certainly out-earn their collective cost.
Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Red Sox - He's hitting just .219/.292/.344 and missed Sunday's game with a back injury. He hasn't played 140 games in a season since 2008 and has already struck out 20 times. But Youkilis is due back Monday, has already scored 14 runs and has always produced when healthy. At 33, he's still young enough to perform at his usual level, health permitting.
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres - A .184/.292/.316 line is abysmal even for Petco, and while Maybin does have four steals, he's got just six RBI, a big problem for a starting outfielder in a mixed leagues. Moreover, he's been moved down in the batting order - something that could limit his stolen base attempts in the near term. Still, it's hard not to think a 25-year old who plays good defense and is drawing more walks this year won't eventually bounce back, and this is a player who had nine homers and 40 steals in 137 games last year.
Geovany Soto - I have to admit even I'm worried with a .135/.224/.250 line, a sore back and prospect Welington Castillo now in the fold. But the Cubs new regime is being excruciatingly patient with its veterans (other than Marlon Byrd), giving Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Marmol, among others, plenty of time to work through their slumps. I think they'll do the same with Soto, especially given he's had only 52 at-bats so far, and his plate discipline (six walks, 12 Ks) hasn't been terrible.
Heath Bell - Bell's given up seven walks in five and two thirds innings (through Sunday) and blown three saves already. He's looked utterly lost at times, completely unable to locate the strike zone. But while his fastball velocity is down to 93.3, it's not a significant drop-off from the last several seasons. And his three-year $27 million deal from the Marlins gives management a major incentive to see him remain the closer over the long haul - even if he were to lose the job temporarily.
A few others worth targeting on the cheap:
Clay Buchholz, Brandon Belt, J.J. Hardy, Mark Reynolds, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Paul Goldschmidt and Chone Figgins.
And if you have a strong stomach: Francisco Liriano, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Smoak and Phil Hughes.