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Recent ADP Trends: Free Fallin'

While it's always more fun to look at the risers on the ADP trend report and analyze the strong play that has put them into fantasy GM's good graces, it's also very important to see who's dropping in the rankings as well. The last thing you want to do is make a mistake in your draft and select a player that has already lost a position battle, has been demoted or is at least headed out the door. Sure, some of them may be back at some point during the season, but unless you're talking about a top tier prospect, you don't necessarily want to waste pick or the bench spot at this point in time. So today, we're going to highlight some of the players that have steadily been dropping in the rankings. And not just guys who drop one week and are up the next….we're talking about the free-fallers.

Nyjer Morgan, OF MIL (-12.1|PERCENT|) – Morgan has always been an up-and-down pick for a lot of fantasy folk for a few years now. He's got great speed on the bases and usually hits for a high average. However, attitude problems and a variety of injuries always seem to get the better of him and he tends to fall out of favor more than in. This year, he's actually been in a steady decline ever since it was announced that Ryan Braun wouldn't be suspended. That news, coupled with the presence of Norichika Aoki, has left Morgan sitting in a platoon with Carlos Gomez in center field. Morgan will get the bulk of the work, facing right-handed pitching, but he obviously loses a good amount of his value not being a full-time player. He took an even bigger drop two weeks ago when he was hit in the head with a pitch and appeared to be headed for the sidelines for a while, but he has since returned to action. He'll make for decent outfield depth early on in the season, but won't hit full value until Gomez takes his annual plunge into the tank and Morgan begins to see a little more time.

Aaron Harang, SP LAD (-12.0|PERCENT|) – With each and every poor spring performance, Harang drops further and further in the ADP rankings. He's made three Cactus League appearances so far and has allowed five runs off 14 hits in nine innings of work. Opponent's hitters are batting .350 against him right now and many folks are worried that leaving Petco Park will return Harang to the level of waiver wire fodder this season. But don't give up on the veteran right-hander just yet. While he's been giving up a good number of hits this spring, you should also take notice of the fact that he's struck out six batters and allowed no walks. When the regular season begins, Harang gets Chavez Ravine as his home park, and while it's certainly no Petco, it plays much better to pitchers than it does hitters. Watch him fall in the ADP rankings between now and Opening Day and use that to your advantage. He won't cost you more than a very late round pick and could continue to surprise people this season.

Casey Kotchman, 1B CLE (-28.4|PERCENT|) – Kotchman has fallen so far that he's actually now out of the top 500 on the ADP trend report. Not only is that bad in general, but even worse for a guy who is supposedly the starting first baseman for a professional baseball team. Despite the fact that he has been handed the starting job in Cleveland and will likely receive the majority of starts, Kotchman is getting no love from fantasy GMs this year. It's true that he doesn't hit for much power which is a no-no for first basemen, and he will lose at-bats on days that Carlos Santana moves out from behind the plate but it's a bit surprising that he is going undrafted even in some of the deepest of both AL-only and mixed leagues. Perhaps there's some residual belief that Matt LaPorta may put it together finally, but that's not something on which to base your opinion. There's no reason to grab him now if no one else is, so leave him for the waiver wire. It's not like you'll want to use him as your primary first baseman or corner infielder anyway, but he might make for a decent plug-and-play option sometime down the road.

Julio Teheran, SP ATL (-15.4|PERCENT|) -- There were plenty of high hopes for Teheran coming into this spring after he had such an outstanding season at Triple-A Gwinnett last season and the fact that Tim Hudson would be out for atleast the first month of the year. However, this spring has been a veritable disaster for the 21-year old right-hander as he has been giving up an inordinate number of long balls here – nine in 13 innings to be exact. Compare that to the nine he gave up in just over 164 innings between the majors and Triple-A last year and no wonder people are running from him. With Mike Minor taking the number four spot in the rotation, the battle for the fifth spot was between Teheran and Randall Delgado and while Teheran has the higher ceiling, Delgado is looking a lot sharper and apparently maintains the edge. This could actually be a blessing in disguise for fantasy owners as this could knock Teheran off the map for a little while. With another strong season at Triple-A, Teheran could either force another call-up this year or, at the least, give him an edge for a rotation spot next year. Either way, he will be highly undervalued this spring and would make for a nice stash in keeper and dynasty leagues.

Eric Thames, OF TOR (-21.0|PERCENT|) – With each and every ball Travis Snider crushes this spring, Thames drops further and further down the ADP charts, including a 15.1|PERCENT| drop in just the last week. But what makes this interesting is that while the Blue Jays' left field job competition remains open between the two, GM Alex Anthopoulos says that Thames has the edge. Are people just looking at the spring stat lines and not reading the reports?  Sure, Snider has four spring home runs and 15 RBI, but he also has a minor league option left which could be his ultimate demise. Maybe people are reading, but just have no faith in Thames staving off Snider for the entire year. Whatever the case may be, he is falling further down the line in ADP ranks and will be able to be acquired at a bargain rate. He may ultimately end up in a platoon, but that's a bridge you might not have to cross until much later on.

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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz.  You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].