With Tout Wars coming up this weekend, I am now completing the final steps in my preparation for the mixed league auction. Last season, the 15-team league ($260 budget) had 45 players purchased at $1. On a per-team basis, three of 23 starting spots filled with the minimum bid does not seem to be all that many, but 45 of 345 (approximately 13 percent of the player pool) should serve as an indication that there is an art to controlling the endgame by carefully nominating players after your opponents have all fallen to max bid positions of $1.
Many fantasy owners struggle with the later stages of the auction, which leads prudent ones to more carefully manage their money in order to have that $2 or even $3 max bid longer than the competition. Invariably, an impatient owner with a half dozen $1 roster spots left to fill will attempt to sneak through an upside player without carefully reviewing their opponents' spending ability. Carefully tracking your remaining budget throughout the auction ensures an opportunity to simply take away those more desirable players capable of returning a profit, while also forcing the other teams in the auction to settle for replacement-level fodder.
So what types of players were available for $1 in last year's Tout Wars mixed league auction? It's a smattering of prospects, lottery tickets and low-end veterans for the most part, but a fair number will draw double-digit bids this time around. In order to make this review useful for 2012 auctions and drafts, a similar player to target will be included below.
Dustin Ackley, 2B, SEA - Although he did not return a double-digit profit last season, he was well worth the $1 bid Yahoo! Sports' Andy Behrens threw his way last season while hitting .273 with six homers, 36 RBI and six stolen bases. Projected as a second baseman capable of double-digit homer and steals totals over a full season - and one that should hit near the top of the order in Seattle, Ackley may fetch as much as $10-12 this weekend. 2012 Version:Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL
Peter Bourjos, OF, LAA - Perhaps Bourjos is the right-handed hitting version of Jacoby Ellsbury. There is a very underrated combination of power and speed here, one that returned $12 worth of value in just 502 at-bats in 2011. Often overshadowed by prospect Mike Trout, Bourjos will only turn 25 at the end of March and may be worth much more than $10-12 bid as early as this season. 2012 Version:Jose Tabata, OF, PIT
Brandon Beachy, SP, ATL - There are a limited number of starting pitchers capable of reaching the 200 strikeouts mark, without exceeding 200 innings. Beachy proved that his late 2010 success was not a fluke, carrying an excellent 10.74 K/9IP over 25 starts and lowering his walk rate to 2.92 BB/9IP. A converted position player in college who went undrafted before getting signed by Atlanta, the lack of pedigree continues to keep his price tag down, and it's likely that if he had the same pedigree as teammate Mike Minor (a former first-round pick), Beachy would have drawn a bid more closely resembling the $4 that Minor commanded last season. Focusing on skills rather than pedigree here. 2012 Version:Juan Nicasio, SP, COL
Anibal Sanchez, SP, MIA - Entering the auction last season, Sanchez's 2010 peripherals (7.25 K/9IP, 3.23 BB/9IP) did not point to the breakout he delivered as the Marlins' best starter. His injury history kept the price tag down as well, but after he struck out more than a batter per inning last season while making 32 starts for the second year in a row, Sanchez will fetch much more this time around. 2012 Version:Jon Niese, SP, NYM
Erik Bedard, SP, PIT - As a Mariner, he was excellent (3.45 ERA, 1.172 WHIP, 87:30 K:BB in 91.1 IP) and while injuries cut his time with the Red Sox short, Bedard struck out a batter per inning after the trade around a spike in his walk rate. Even if he's limited to 20-25 starts because of his annual trip to the disabled list, the per-inning production significantly exceeds that of most of his endgame peers. 2012 Version: Frankly, no other player does this trick better than Bedard and it would not be surprising to see him go for $1-2 again this year in mixed Tout.
Scott Baker, SP, MIN - Baker teased fantasy owners with a 141:42 K:BB in 172.1 IP in 2008 and the ratios were excellent (3.45 ERA, 1.178 WHIP). There were hints of an improved strikeout rate when he delieverd a then career-high 7.82 K/IP in 2010, and he was on the verge of cranking out a top-20 season as a starter in the first half (101 strikeouts in 106 IP) before elbow trouble derailed him. Unfortunately, Baker is having more trouble with his elbow this spring and his status for the start of the season is in doubt. In terms of skills and his status as a perpetual SABR darling, this one is easy. 2012 Version:Ricky Nolasco, SP, MIA
Matt Capps, RP, MIN - The ERA (4.25) and WHIP (1.203) weren't pretty, but 15 saves for $1 is an excellent return on a tiny investment. My dad defends bottom-tier classic rock with, "it doesn't have to be good, to be a classic." Capps is proof that it doesn't have to be good, to be a closer. Experience carries too much weight in the bullpen, as managers often turn to the "proven" ninth-inning option rather than their best all-around reliever. 2012 Version:Brian Fuentes, RP, OAK