While we await more data to analyze for AL and NL-only leagues (each one has just one draft, so the fluctuations in trends aren't a good representation). Let's go back and look at the Top 20 overall and see how things are shaping up from where they were just a month ago. Because your early rounds are where you start to build the core of your team, it's always good to see what your options will likely be when you learn your draft position and start building your draft strategy.
Overall Top 20
| Rank (ADP) 1 Month Ago | Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | |
| Matt Kemp | 1 (1.50) | 1.63 | -6.7|PERCENT| | 1.52 | 9.9|PERCENT| | 1.67 | 2.5|PERCENT| |
| Miguel Cabrera | 3 (3.41) | 2.83 | -10.6|PERCENT| | 2.53 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 2.50 | -11.7|PERCENT| |
| Albert Pujols | 2 (2.42) | 2.92 | -1.0|PERCENT| | 2.89 | -1.0|PERCENT| | 2.86 | -2.1|PERCENT| |
| Jose Bautista | 4 (4.45) | 4.60 | -5.2|PERCENT| | 4.36 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 4.33 | -5.9|PERCENT| |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 5 (4.95) | 4.93 | -5.1|PERCENT| | 4.68 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 4.66 | -5.5|PERCENT| |
| Justin Verlander | 7 (8.80) | 8.34 | 1.8|PERCENT| | 8.49 | 8.2|PERCENT| | 9.19 | 10.2|PERCENT| |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 6 (8.36) | 8.77 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 8.57 | 2.7|PERCENT| | 8.80 | 0.3|PERCENT| |
| Justin Upton | 8 (8.83) | 8.79 | 0.6|PERCENT| | 8.84 | 2.1|PERCENT| | 9.03 | 2.7|PERCENT| |
| Joey Votto | 10 (9.76) | 9.59 | -2.3|PERCENT| | 9.37 | 0.1|PERCENT| | 9.38 | -2.2|PERCENT| |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 9 (9.28) | 9.78 | -2.9|PERCENT| | 9.50 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 9.41 | -3.8|PERCENT| |
| Robinson Cano | 11 (10.08) | 10.46 | -4.9|PERCENT| | 9.95 | -3.1|PERCENT| | 9.64 | -7.8|PERCENT| |
| Evan Longoria | 12 (11.76) | 12.32 | -4.9|PERCENT| | 11.72 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 11.52 | -6.5|PERCENT| |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 13 (13.96) | 14.05 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 14.04 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 13.98 | -0.5|PERCENT| |
| Roy Halladay | 14 (14.49) | 14.98 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 14.85 | 3.0|PERCENT| | 15.29 | 2.1|PERCENT| |
| Prince Fielder | 16 (15.37) | 15.28 | -5.4|PERCENT| | 14.45 | -3.4|PERCENT| | 13.96 | -8.6|PERCENT| |
| Clayton Kershaw | 15 (14.57) | 15.51 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 15.46 | 3.2|PERCENT| | 15.96 | 2.9|PERCENT| |
| Dustin Pedroia | 18 (19.02) | 19.26 | -2.7|PERCENT| | 18.74 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 18.45 | -4.2|PERCENT| |
| Curtis Granderson | 17 (18.98) | 19.30 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 19.09 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 19.26 | -0.2|PERCENT| |
| Cliff Lee | n/a | 19.87 | 0.9|PERCENT| | 20.05 | 3.0|PERCENT| | 20.65 | 3.9|PERCENT| |
| Hanley Ramirez | 20 (19.62) | 19.93 | -2.9|PERCENT| | 19.35 | -2.2|PERCENT| | 18.92 | -5.1|PERCENT| |
For a full look at the Top 20 ADP Trend Report from a month ago, click here.
The first thing that you should notice here is the minimal movement for players in the top 20. Despite some of the double digit, week to week fluctuations we've witnessed, the Top 20 has been virtually unchanged for the last month. A few guys jumping one spot here and there, and the addition of Cliff Lee who, one month ago, was actually ranked number 22 at the time, is all there is. For the sake of studying draft habits, this is actually ideal as there are little or no surprises. Sure, every league has someone who likes to throw a monkey wrench into the system but, overall, we're not seeing it.
Falling out of the top 20 is actually Marlins shortstop Jose Reyes. A month ago, Reyes was ranked 19th, had an ADP of 19.59, and was actually on the rise, even if by just the tiniest of margins. There have been no recent reports on him other than the ones talking about how he and Hanley Ramirez are forging their very own bromance, so the decline in ADP has to be people's lack of confidence in his health. It's always tough to put your faith in a guy who has bum legs and makes his living off of them.
The next aspect of this trend report that stands out pretty strongly is in the overall trends. Save for Matt Kemp, who continues to be firmly entrenched at the top of the list, the only other positive trends come from starting pitchers. Last week, when we were looking at how starters were trending, it was only in mixed leagues where we saw the increase. In single leagues people found themselves waiting longer and longer to draft pitching, but in mixed leagues, the desire to draft an ace is not something that is going to dissipate. We now have four starters in the top 20 and all of them are trending upwards. It might not be the way you really want to go, but it's good to know that while you're stockpiling your core offense, that there will be quality selections available with people taking starters in the early rounds.
There's a definite tier system working here within the top 20 to which you should also pay some mind. While there might be some changes within the top five as to who gets picked before whom, but everyone seems to agree upon who the top 5 actually are. The difference between fifth ranked Troy Tulowitzki (ADP: 4.94) and sixth ranked Justin Verlander (ADP: 8.34) is fairly significant. And if you go down the list, you can see different breaks such as between Adrian Gonzalezand Robinson Cano followed by another noticeable break between Evan Longoria and Carlos Gonzalez. One more between Clayton Kershaw and Dustin Pedroia, as well. If you're drafting and you see a player chosen that is outside of his respective tier, you should make a note of it, especially if it's getting closer to your pick. You might have a much better option available to you than you originally planned out in your strategy.
Biggest Riser: Justin Verlander (+10.2|PERCENT|) – Though he's seen the biggest increase over the last two weeks, you can see that Verlander's overall ADP hasn't really shifted all that much from where it was a month ago. He took a relatively substantial hit as his ADP dropped to a 9.19 two weeks ago, but the pitcher-hounds are at it again and are continuing to take him at a high pick still.
Biggest Faller: Miguel Cabrera (-11.7|PERCENT|) – With word coming out of Detroit that Cabrera was going to be playing third base, he began a fairly quick ascension in the ADP rankings as dreams of multi-position eligibility and the thinness of third base danced through people's heads. However, Cabrera's place at third has no real guarantee. Without Victor Martinez, the DH spot is wide open. The Tigers have a number of options they can use there, including the rotating DH philosophy, but if Cabrera's defense starts to cost the team games, then he'll be locked into the DH spot pretty quickly.
And finally, what Top 20 report would be complete without the obligatory Ryan Braun ADP update? Cleared of any supposed wrongdoing...or at the least having his 50-game suspension lifted, Braun has seen a 37.0|PERCENT| increase in ADP rank over the last two weeks -- 35.9|PERCENT| in just the past week. His current ADP now sits at 20.63 and should easily be climbing from now through Opening Day.
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over ten years on a variety of web sites including Rotowire,FanGraphs and The Fantasy Baseball Buzz. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy or email him at [email protected].