The news on Yoenis Cespedes signing with the A's broke during our radio show this morning. Here are my first reactions:
- I will never, ever, ever doubt rumors of a mystery team being involved again. Well, at least until 2014, when I will have forgotten that lesson.
- Why did Cespedes choose the A's? Simply put, from what I've read, it was by far the best deal offered. Cespedes will get $36 million over four years, and equally importantly, will agree to not offer arbitration after that fourth year, making him a free agent. Nobody else offered the combination of the dollars per year and the ability to become a free agent over that short term.
- Why did the A's go aggressively after Cespedes? Mostly because he's the one "blue-chip" who would take their money. Of course, Cespedes is risky - the track record of players coming over from Cuba is mixed, and the stats that we do have to rely upon are notoriously unreliable and difficult to translate. This has to be a leap of faith almost entirely predicated on scouting - no shortage in irony in the year that Moneyball is an Oscar-nominated film, though that gulf between stats and scouts has probably been overstated both in the book and certainly in the movie.
But the A's have been active in the international market for a few years, notably signing Michael Inoa (Ynoa?) and falling just short on Aroldis Chapman. They have to go this route after the likes of Adrian Beltre and Lance Berkman refused to take their money in the 2010-11 offseason. They don't have much of a chance to compete this year, even with Cespedes, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they're trying to tank. Their window in 3-to-4 years away, given the talent stocked in Anaheim and Texas, even before they traded Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill and Andrew Bailey. Cespedes will still be there, close to his prime if not smack in it, when that window presumably arrives. If it doesn't arrive and he pans out, that also gives them an additional trade chip.
- I don't think this signing is analogous to the Dayan Viciedo signing from a couple of years ago. Cespedes is older and more likely to contribute right away, and is a superior defender. I hesitate to compare him to other Cuban players - or really, any other players, as the "similar to" game isn't one I'm good at. We have so few players come over from Cuba to begin with, let alone at the same position, age and/or body type.
- Signing in Oakland will hurt Cespedes' power - I'm not willing to give him a 30-homer season, by any means. But any sort of projection for him was a dart throw to begin with, so my projection on him was fairly conservative. The leading candidate to sign him was presumably Florida, and though that didn't work out, that park wouldn't have hurt him either. I'm not going to change my current projection.
- Cespedes can play center field, which makes the A's signing of Coco Crisp to a two-year, $14 million contract look even worse than it did already. Crisp is the classic better-in-fantasy-than-in-real-life player, so even though it was an awful signing (.314 OBP last season), I'm still willing to draft him for the right price, if I need the speed.
- The A's have gone from having too many outfielders, to losing all of their outfielders, to having too many outfielders again. Crisp and Cespedes will play regularly, but there's going to be a pretty tight squeeze between Josh Reddick, Seth Smith, Jonny Gomes and Collin Cowgill in one corner outfield spot and at the DH slot, where Kila Ka'aihue, Brandon Allen and Chris Carter will also be part of the picture if they don't win the first base job from Daric Barton. Cowgill probably is screwed here, and Michael Taylor really seems out of the picture.
- Finally, it looks like Emilio Bonifacio gained a lot of job security here. I don't see anyone on the free agent market that could displace him in center field. If you're looking for a stab in the dark to fade Bonifacio, say in a deep Scoresheet or NL-only roto league, maybe you could take a flier on Bryan Petersen, who I think still has value if he ever got the playing time.