As draft results come trickling in, we're starting to see a little bit of added movement amongst the running backs. We're not talking anything dramatic in most cases, but based on certain draft trends, preseason performances, injuries and what not, we're starting to get a better look at how the masses are feeling about certain players. Since running backs are, overall, the most highly coveted players, it seems like the logical place to start right now. The premier backs, guys who have the backfield all to themselves, obviously come off the board immediately, but in those early rounds, it helps to see which players you may be able to grab a round or two later so that you can possibly snag your elite quarterback or game-breaking wide receiver. The top 25 running backs are usually gone by the fourth or fifth round, depending on the size of your league, but let's see who's settling in where, on average.
| Current ADP | Change | 1 Week Ago | Change | 2 Weeks Ago | Overall Trend | ||
| Arian Foster | HOU | 1.30 | 0.0|PERCENT| | 1.30 | -1.5|PERCENT| | 1.28 | -1.5|PERCENT| |
| Adrian Peterson | MIN | 2.06 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 2.01 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 2.00 | -2.9|PERCENT| |
| Chris Johnson | TEN | 3.51 | -5.7|PERCENT| | 3.31 | -3.0|PERCENT| | 3.21 | -8.5|PERCENT| |
| Jamaal Charles | KC | 4.19 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 4.16 | -0.5|PERCENT| | 4.14 | -1.2|PERCENT| |
| Rashard Mendenhall | PIT | 6.35 | -8.3|PERCENT| | 5.82 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 5.86 | -7.7|PERCENT| |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | JAX | 7.46 | -6.3|PERCENT| | 6.99 | -1.4|PERCENT| | 6.89 | -7.6|PERCENT| |
| Ray Rice | BAL | 9.04 | 5.0|PERCENT| | 9.49 | 4.1|PERCENT| | 9.88 | 9.3|PERCENT| |
| LeSean McCoy | PHI | 9.39 | -2.6|PERCENT| | 9.15 | -2.6|PERCENT| | 8.91 | -5.1|PERCENT| |
| Michael Turner | ATL | 9.77 | -6.2|PERCENT| | 9.16 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 9.00 | -7.9|PERCENT| |
| Darren McFadden | OAK | 12.17 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 11.91 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 11.78 | -3.2|PERCENT| |
| Peyton Hillis | CLE | 15.66 | -2.9|PERCENT| | 15.21 | -0.3|PERCENT| | 15.16 | -3.2|PERCENT| |
| Frank Gore | SF | 16.63 | -5.7|PERCENT| | 15.69 | -0.8|PERCENT| | 15.57 | -6.4|PERCENT| |
| LeGarrette Blount | TB | 19.58 | -3.1|PERCENT| | 18.97 | 0.7|PERCENT| | 19.10 | -2.5|PERCENT| |
| Matt Forte | CHI | 20.49 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 20.45 | 0.2|PERCENT| | 20.49 | 0.0|PERCENT| |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | NYG | 26.17 | -3.0|PERCENT| | 25.38 | -0.4|PERCENT| | 25.27 | -3.4|PERCENT| |
| Steven Jackson | STL | 27.08 | -1.7|PERCENT| | 26.62 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 26.57 | -1.9|PERCENT| |
| Ryan Matthews | SD | 32.53 | -5.3|PERCENT| | 30.82 | -1.2|PERCENT| | 30.44 | -6.4|PERCENT| |
| Knowshon Moreno | DEN | 34.91 | -3.3|PERCENT| | 33.76 | -0.6|PERCENT| | 33.55 | -3.9|PERCENT| |
| Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 37.84 | -5.0|PERCENT| | 35.96 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 35.71 | -5.6|PERCENT| |
| Felix Jones | DAL | 43.13 | 2.4|PERCENT| | 44.17 | 1.5|PERCENT| | 44.84 | 4.0|PERCENT| |
| DeAngelo Williams | CAR | 46.98 | -2.1|PERCENT| | 46.01 | -0.1|PERCENT| | 45.97 | -2.1|PERCENT| |
| BenJarvis Green-Ellis | NE | 47.31 | -1.1|PERCENT| | 46.79 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 46.44 | -1.8|PERCENT| |
| Fred Jackson | BUF | 53.40 | -2.4|PERCENT| | 52.14 | -0.2|PERCENT| | 52.06 | -2.5|PERCENT| |
| Shonn Greene | NYJ | 54.83 | 1.2|PERCENT| | 55.50 | 0.5|PERCENT| | 55.75 | 1.7|PERCENT| |
| Ryan Grant | GB | 54.99 | -0.9|PERCENT| | 54.48 | -0.7|PERCENT| | 54.12 | -1.6|PERCENT| |
Upon first looking at the Overall Trends, what should catch your eye immediately is all the love Ray Rice is getting in drafts thus far. His 9.3|PERCENT| increase leads the top 25 in NFL Standard leagues and it's an even bigger increase in PPR leagues. The fact that Willis McGahee is no longer in town poaching goal-line work is a huge boost and no one seems to be sold on Ricky Williams eating into his carries very much. There's also his pass-catching ability which is a huge bonus. Though it hasn't been on display too much in the preseason, Rice saw 82 targets in 2010 with 63 receptions for 556 yards (8.8 avg.) and one touchdown. People are expecting an improvement on those totals, as well as his rushing work and TD total, and it's showing even more now in the ADP rankings as he leapfrogs both Maurice Jones-Drew and Rashard Mendenhall in numerous drafts.
The most significant drop-off here is Chris Johnson whose overall ADP has decreased 8.5|PERCENT| over the last two weeks. The reasons are obvious as fantasy GMs are growing more and more concerned about the current hold-out. He remains a first round choice in virtually every league, but as the season nears and he remains out of action, owners are choosing some of the other premier backs first, most notably again, is Rice. However, recent reports from Tuesday say that Johnson was active on his Twitter account and broadcast to those that follow him that he was heading to Tennessee with his agent and meeting with Titans GM Mike Reinfeldt to further negotiations. That news alone should probably improve his ADP although not to the point where he overtakes Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster in the top two.
While it's to be expected in PPR leagues, Michael Turner's drop in ADP in NFL Standard leagues is interesting. He's not a big part of the passing game in Atlanta, but he still rushed for 1,371 yards and 12 touchdowns last season. Perhaps the heavy workload last season (334 carries) coupled with offseason groin surgery, is making owners wary of a possible injury. The Falcons also like to use Jason Snelling, especially on third downs, so perhaps there is concern that he will spell Turner more often than usual. If his ADP continues to drop, he could end up becoming a fantastic 2nd round selection. You can't really call it a steal, but for that much potential yardage and touchdown output, getting him with your second pick would be huge.
Peyton Hillis has a fairly negligible change in ADP right now, but watch that negative go positive soon when word spreads of back-up Brandon Jackson's turf toe. The injury will keep Jackson out indefinitely, and Hillis will be in line for more work. He'll still be a second round choice, but perhaps he goes a little quicker in the wraparound now.
Concern is growing over Frank Gore lately, and it's certainly showing in his 6.4|PERCENT| decrease in ADP. Between the injuries last season and the questions surrounding his attitude over his contract negotiations, fantasy GMs seem to be moving more towards some of the second tier backs instead. Niners GM Trent Baalke claims that he wants to make Gore "a 49er for life", so that may assuage some of the concerns, but there are obviously other backs such as LeGarrette Blount, Steven Jackson and even Felix Jones who may start going earlier than him.
The Buffalo situation is definitely one to watch. A few days ago, there was talk that perhaps Fred Jackson wasn't "the man" in Buffalo and that C.J. Spiller was staking a claim on the job, but that faded fairly quickly and it was announced that Jackson would be the starter in the Bills' third preseason game. Depending on how that game goes, we could see some significant movement for both.
Another tandem to keep an eye on would be in Carolina as Jonathan Stewart just returned to practice after missing time with a strained Achilles tendon. That's not an easy injury for a running back to come back from, especially a guy who pushes between the tackles so often. Monitor how he does in practice and see where he's at come the weekend's preseason contest. If he shows any ill effects, it could just be a matter of time before he and DeAngelo Williams swap positions on the ADP leaderboard
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Backs potentially on the rise: Jahvid Best (26th overall and climbing), Shonn Greene
Backs that may fall: Ryan Matthews, Matt Forte
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Howard Bender has been covering fantasy sports for over 10 years on various websites. You can follow him on Twitter at @rotobuzzguy and for questions, thoughts or comments you can email him at [email protected].