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The Bold and The Beautiful: Projecting the 2011 NFL Season

For the few short weeks leading up to the season, I will be giving out a few projections for this coming year; some of these will surprise you, some are expected. This week: New England and Jacksonville.

The Bold

After going 8-8, the Jacksonville Jaguars will not win more than 5 games this year. With the exception of games against Carolina, Cincinnati, and Cleveland, Del Rio and crew face an extremely tough schedule. The Jaguars were the 3rd worst team in terms of defensive efficiency last season and were unimpressively average on offense. Adding in the QB controversy between David Garrard - who Jack Del Rio seems to hate - and rookie Blaine Gabbert, the Jaguars are poised for a tough road ahead.

At numberFire, we actually like Garrard as he has produced with both his arm and legs over the last few years. We are projecting Garrard (3500 YDS/23 TD/13 INT) as the #13 QB this coming season, should Del Rio decide to keep him under center.

The Beautiful

The New England Patriots will win at least 12 games, again . Our projections have the Patriots coolly finishing with 13-14 wins after a remarkable 14-2 season in 2010. The Patriots were far and away the most efficient offense last year - in fact they were the 2nd most efficient offense we have seen in the last 10 years, behind only the 2007 Patriots - and they managed a slightly above average defense with their young rag-tag crew. Everyone is interested to see how new faces like Albert Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco will perform under Bill Belichick. Currently, we are projecting the-artist-formerly-known-as-Chad-Johnson (77 REC/950 YDS/9 TD) as the #16 fantasy wide receiver, ahead of teammate Wes Welker.

The most accurate weekly projections from numberFire.com based on wall-street style analytics. numberFire outpredicted two of the most trafficked fantasy sites 70|PERCENT| of the time and are 54-55|PERCENT| against the spread over the last 3 seasons.