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Early ADP Comparisons

We're about a week from when the main rush of NFL free agency took place. We've had enough fantasy mock drafts to see who's rising and falling as a result. Here are the top risers/decliners:

MockDraftCentral.com top ADP risers   
PlayerPositionTeamRise/Decline
Ray Rice
Chad Ochocinco
Roy Williams
Tom Brady
Philadelphia Eagles
Larry Fitzgerald
Julio Jones
Ryan Williams
RB
WR
WR
QB
DEF
WR
WR
RB
BAL
NE
CHI
NE
PHI
ARI
ATL
ARI
QQ|>17.60|PERCENT|
12.40|PERCENT|
9.80|PERCENT|
8.60|PERCENT|
7.60|PERCENT|
7.50|PERCENT|
7.50|PERCENT|
7.50|PERCENT|
MockDraftCentral.com top ADP decliners   
Tashard Choice
Michael Turner
Maurice Jones-Drew
Rashard Mendenhall
Arian Foster
RB
RB
RB
RB
RB
DAL
ATL
JAX
PIT
HOU
QQ|>-5.50|PERCENT|
-6.30|PERCENT|
-7.90|PERCENT|
-9.80|PERCENT|
-15.70|PERCENT|
ESPN top ADP risers   
Tim Hightower
Chad Ochocinco
Roy Williams
Plaxico Burress
Eagles D/ST
Beanie Wells
Willis McGahee
Ben Tate
RB
WR
WR
WR
D/ST
RB
RB
RB
WAS
NE
CHI
NYJ
PHI
ARI
DEN
HOU
QQ|>25.90|PERCENT|
20.20|PERCENT|
20.20|PERCENT|
19.90|PERCENT|
17.20|PERCENT|
16.20|PERCENT|
14.80|PERCENT|
13.80|PERCENT|

The increase of Ray Rice may be thwarted by the Ravens signing Ricky Williams. Chad Ochocinco benefits from his move to the Patriots. Roy Williams could be a starter in Chicago. Larry Fitzgerald benefits from a new quarterback in Kevin Kolb.  In the ESPN rankings, Tim Hightower goes from nothing to something with his move to Washington. 

It's a bit odd that Ryan Williams is on the rise at MDC but Beanie Wells is on the rise at ESPN.

That's kind of a trend I'm seeing in ADP values across the web. Usually a groupthink develops after the NFL draft in April and after free agency. But this year with the abbreviated free agency period, a consensus among players hasn't yet developed. Everyone is still processing all the player movement.

Just check out these values:

Adrian Peterson vs. Arian Foster for the first pick:

    -AP #2 on Yahoo
    -AP #1 on ESPN
    -AP #2 on MDC

Michael Turner's value varies a lot (although the prevalence of PPR formats is likely the cause)

    -#9 on MDC
    -#6 on Yahoo
    -#15 on ESPN

Maurice Jones-Drew

    -#6 on MDC
    -#8 on ESPN
    -#12 on Yahoo

Darren McFadden   

    -#12 on MDC
    -#22 on ESPN
    -#16 on Yahoo

Shonn Greene

    -#55 on MDC
    -#57 on ESPN
    -#34 on Yahoo

Some of this is the inherent bias in the ADP rankings based on the default rankings and the most dominant scoring systems (these are all composite rankings from all scoring systems/league types), but my guess is that these rankings will fall more in unison as August progresses.