My fellow RotoWire blogger, Luke Hoover, beat me to the punch recently with his well constructed Top 10 RB and WR lists. I too had compiled my lists but was waiting to post them (foolish me was still concentrating on my baseball drafts). So, before any more of my hard work ends up in the trash can, here is my Top 10 QB list…
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (6'2", 220; age 27)
Rodgers filled some of the biggest cleats in football taking over for Brett Favre a few years ago, and never looked back. Even after opposing teams were able to concentrate on defending the pass with Ryan Grant lost for the season in week 1, Rodgers came up only 78 yards shy of 4,000 for a third straight season. He threw for 28 TDs and added another 4 rushing TDs, demonstrating that he is the model of consistency (30 pass, 5 rush in 2009; 28 pass, 4 rush in 2008).
Projection: 4,250 yards, 30 pass TDs, 3 rush TDs, 9 INT
2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts (6'5", 230; age 35)
Not only does Manning put up incredible numbers year-after-year, he doesn't miss games to injury (heck, he was only sacked 16 times in 2010). Manning has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 9 of the past 10 seasons, with a career best 4,700 yards last year, and averages 31 TD passes a season over that span. There is nothing to indicate he won't do it again, especially with a receiving corps of Reggie Wayne, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Dallas Clark, Blair White and Jacob Tamme.
Projection: 4,500 yards, 32 pass TDs, 1 rush TDs, 15 INT
3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (6'0", 209; age 32)
Brees doesn't have the advantage of a top flight group of receivers like Manning (other than Marques Colston), but he manages to get the best performance possible out of those he does have. A healthy Pierre Thomas (an average of 33 receptions over the past three seasons) will also add to Brees' stats (Chris Ivory had 1 reception for 17 yards).
Projection: 4,400 yards, 33 pass TDs, 0 rush TDs, 18 INT
4. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (6'5", 228; age 29)
What would Rivers have done last season had Vincent Jackson not held out and Antonio Gates not been injured? Even so, he threw for a career high 4,710 yards, adding 30 TDs and only 13 INT. If the Chargers can get Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews more involved in the passing game, Rivers can have his best season yet.
Projection: 4,575 yards, 31 pass TDs, 0 rush TDs, 12 INT
5. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles (6'0", 215; age 30)
Undrafted in most fantasy leagues in 2010, Vick proved he still has the tools that made him the overall number one pick in 2001. This resulted in career bests in completions, passing yards, passing TDs and rushing TDs (as well as INTs thrown in a full season). Always an injury risk due to his style of play, Vick is a stud if he is on the field, and one you may be able to wait on (unlike those ahead of him on this list).
Projection: 2,800 yards (plus 500 rush yards), 21 pass TDs, 6 rush TDs, 10 INT
6. Eli Manning, New York Giants (6'4", 225; age 30)
Who got the better of the Manning for Rivers swap in 2004? The Giants have a Superbowl victory to show for it, while the Chargers do not. But fantasy players don't care about that. How about the fact that Manning has thrown for more yards (22,646 to 19,660) and more pass TDs (156 to 136) than Rivers in his career? So why does Rivers regularly rank higher than Manning? Could it be his 113 INTs to River's 58? Only if your league deducts points for INTs. Otherwise, I truly do not know, and yet, I'm doing it myself.
Projection: 3,975 yards, 32 pass TDs, 0 rush TDs, 20 INT
7. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (6'4", 225; age 33)
Based on his performance the past two seasons, it is safe to say that Brady's 2008 injury woes are long behind him. Unfortunately, he has new injury concerns, having undergone surgery to repair a stress factor in his foot. When healthy, he is arguably the top quarterback in the game (114 pass TDs and only 25 INT over his past three full seasons). His injury status is the only thing keeping him out of the top five for now.
Projection: 4,025 yards, 29 pass TDs, 0 rush TDs, 12 INT
8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (6'2", 223; age 30)
Romo was on pace to throw for over 5,000 yards and 35 TDs after the first five games of 2010, until an injury in week 7 ended his season. Fully recovered from his collarbone injury, and throwing to the likes of Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten, Romo should once again be among the top fantasy QBs next season.
Projection: 4,250 yards, 28 pass TDs, 0 rush TDs, 16 INT
9. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (6'4", 213; age 25)
Would you believe that Ryan has put up better numbers than Peyton Manning did in his first three seasons? Well, he hasn't. But his stats are still quite respectable… over 10,000 yards, 66 pass TDs and only 34 INTs. Holding Ryan back is the fact that he has few targets, other than Roddy White, to throw to (especially with Tony Gonzalez contemplating retirement).
Projection: 3,300 yards, 26 pass TDs, 0 rush TDs, 12 INT
10. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans (6'5", 239; age 29)
Arian Foster came out of nowhere in 2010, turning the Texans into a run first, pass second offense, particularly in the red zone, where he scored 14 of his 16 rush TDs. Considering 42 of Schaub's 53 pass TDs have been in the red zone the past two seasons, that's a lot of lost opportunities for him to score. Foster should still be the man in those situations, but Schaub will get his share.
Projection: 4,125 yards, 22 pass TDs, 0 rush TDs, 13 INT
Having one of the elite QBs (Rodgers, Manning, Brees or Rivers) allows you to wait on drafting a back-up who will only be used during a bye week or, heaven forbid, in the event of an injury. If you are unable to to get one of these, I strongly suggest you wait on taking a QB, as the drop-off is not as significant as it might be at other positions, i.e. RB.