Earlier in the week I ranked the top-10 keeper RB's (posted under Spalding1220). It's time to dive into the deeper WR pool and stir up some debate. Admittedly this was a more difficult list to put together, as half the top-10 or more seems to change yearly. With that said, here are the pass catchers that I see as being the most consistent producers over the next 3 seasons, graded on the same basis the running backs were ranked—their ability/potential, recent production and age.
1. Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (6-5, 235 ; age 25)
Megatron is one of the top redzone threats in the league. He has the speed to get deep. He looks like a superhero. What more can you ask for in a top fantasy option? He's shown the ability to produce with anybody under center (12 TD's in '08 with 4 different QB's including Dan Orlovsky & 12 TD's in '10 with mostly back-up Shaun Hill), and has all the tools to dominate as the Lions' offense improves. If Matt Stafford stays healthy the sky is the limit for this transformer.
2. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (6-2, 221 ; age 29)
If he were a couple years younger I'd have to rank him the top Johnson. Though he'll be 30 at the start of the season, there's no reason to believe he won't contend for the top spot over the next 3 years. Even on a bum ankle nearly all of last season he led the league in receiving yards per game at 93.5 per contest. If he was 100|PERCENT| last year he would have been the 1st in history with 3 straight 1,500 yard seasons. That says enough right there.
3. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (6-0, 212 ; age 29)
Rowdy Roddy led the league in targets and receptions in '10 and was 2nd in yards. The man is just pure consistency. He's had at least 1,200 yards or double digit scores each of the last 4 seasons and has yet to miss a game in his 6 year career. He doesn't have the upside of the Johnsons, but he's the most sure thing at the WR position.
4. Hakeem Nicks, New York Giants (6-0, 215 ; age 23)
The only concern with Nicks is that he's missed 5 games in his first 2 seasons. But despite that he's still racked up a phenomenal 17 TD's, while displaying awesome hands and an elite after-the-catch ability. He doesn't have game-breaking speed, but he simply makes plays. Oh and only two other WR's in the last decade can match his TD total in the 1st two seasons: Larry Fitzgerald and Marques Colston. Not bad company.
5. Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers (5-11, 197 ; age 27)
Mr. Jennings is the top target of an elite offense led by an elite passer. With his great hands and excellent route running, he's averaged over 1,000 yards and 8 TD's per season in his 5 years. And at 27 he may not have even peaked yet.
6. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs (6-2, 221 ; age 26)
Bowe blew up last year. He led the league with 15 receiving scores and had an impressive 5 games of multiple TD's, scoring in 9 total games. He was also the only WR in the league with 3 games of over 150 receiving yards. His athleticism and playmaking abilities are as good as anyone's in the league, and he's just hitting his prime.
7. Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers (6-0, 199 ; age 24)
Wallace is the premier big-play receiver in the league. In '10 he led the league in both catches of 20+ yards with 26 and 100+ yard games with 7, while averaging a phenomenal 21.0 yards per catch. And he did all this without Big Ben for 4 games. With Hines Ward on the decline, you can expect this speedster to become a more targeted, more complete receiver.
8. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (6-3, 213 ; age 27)
He needs a QB. With even a serviceable passer he will climb into the top-5 again. Even playing pitch and catch with the 3 blind mice last year he put up 90 catches and over 1,100 yards.
9. Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos (6-0, 184 ; age 29)
I want to say that '10 was a one-year-wonderesque fluke season. But Lloyd was 4th in the league in targets, 2nd in 20+ yard catches and 1st in yards with 1,448, while also grabbing 11 scores. He's shown flashes his whole career of having amazing hands. Last year he showed it every week. With the amount of youth in the Broncos' receiving corps I'm betting Lloyd will be showing off those sticky mitts for at least a few more seasons.
10. Mike Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2, 204 ; age 23)
Williams stepped into the role of #1 receiver in Tampa so smoothly you would have thought he was a 5-year vet. As a rookie he set the franchise record for receiving TD's in a season with 11 and fell just shy of 1,000 yards. Those are incredible numbers for a rookie and would be strong for any receiver. And he was the only receiver in the league to have a TD in 10 different games. The production he's shown combined with the chemistry he's built with promising QB Josh Freeman say this youngin' will be a keeper for a long time to come.
With the receiver position I always prefer to draft or keep one stud, ideally off this list, and then draft for upside. There will always be young guys flying up the ranks, and since they don't put up the points that top RB's do, it's worth passing on a 2nd top receiver if you can grab a good back and then just play the upside card. Case in point: In my keeper league last year I snatched Bowe as the 25th overall WR and Williams as the 41st. Keep a stud then wait on draft day and pile up young, athletic, potential-laden wideouts. It will pay off.