It's very easy to lock in on player movement by tracking where the big names go during the offseason. In many instances, roster turnover is a big game of musical chairs, but for the teams that can't afford to spend large sums of cash on the open market, cheap in-house replacements become key players. When these players are highly touted prospects in their early-20s, excitement brews and hype follows at the draft table.
Investing properly in that young talent can certainly help propel your team to a championship, but it can also carry plenty of risk and disappointment when unexpected difficulty occurs during the adjustment process.
More often than not, the players that give you a big boost are the early-season FAAB or waiver-wire additions, or the $1 endgame and reserve round buys that are purely speculation. Let's think of them as the overlooked players given a clearer path to playing time than ever before due to significant departures on the depth chart ahead of them.
Last season, Colby Lewis returned from Japan to be one of the more reliable starters in the American League, undoubtedly taking a place on plenty of successful fantasy rosters as an undervalued pitcher even with his lack of wins.
I'm making the case for Dan Johnson to follow in Lewis' footsteps. Johnson spent most of 2010 at Triple-A Durham before a late-season callup with limited opportunities in Tampa Bay down the stretch. Like Lewis, Johnson spent his 2009 campaign overseas in Japan.
In 40 games with the Rays last season, Johnson hit .198/.343/.414 with seven homers and 23 RBI over 111 at-bats. Nice on-base percentage thanks to a 25:27 BB:K, and quite a bit of pop for such a small sample size. Before that run, he hit .303/.430/.624 with 30 homers and 95 RBI in 340 at-bats with Triple-A Durham.
While Johnson has never hit more than 18 homers in a season in the big leagues (2007), he's never exceeded 400 at-bats in a season before either. His career lefty/righty splits don't demand a platoon (.749 v. LHP/.767 v. RHP), and his career contact rate is a healthy 83 percent.
| Year | Age | Tm | G | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 25 | OAK | 109 | 434 | 375 | 54 | 103 | 21 | 15 | 58 | 50 | 52 | .275 | .355 | .451 |
| 2006 | 26 | OAK | 91 | 331 | 286 | 30 | 67 | 13 | 9 | 37 | 40 | 45 | .234 | .323 | .381 |
| 2007 | 27 | OAK | 117 | 495 | 416 | 53 | 98 | 20 | 18 | 62 | 72 | 77 | .236 | .349 | .418 |
| 2008 | 28 | TBR | 10 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | .200 | .286 | .440 |
| 2010 | 30 | TBR | 40 | 140 | 111 | 15 | 22 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 25 | 27 | .198 | .343 | .414 |
| 5 Seasons | 368 | 1429 | 1214 | 155 | 295 | 57 | 51 | 184 | 190 | 208 | .243 | .343 | .419 | ||
| 162 Game Avg. | 162 | 629 | 534 | 68 | 130 | 25 | 22 | 81 | 84 | 92 | .243 | .343 | .419 | ||
It's also interesting to point out that his power production in Oakland -- where he's had 516 of his career at-bats -- has been significantly less (just 15 homers there, one in every 34.4 AB) than the damage he's done in all other parks combined (36 HR in 698 AB or one in every 19.4 AB).
The loss of Carlos Pena has left a gaping hole at first base, while the Rays aren't necessarily going to wedge Ben Zobrist in at first base each day unless Sean Rodriguez makes strides and allows them to do so. Even then, Johnson could still DH for the Rays and with an opportunity for a career-high in big league at-bats, we could easily be talking about a one-year surge a la Ty Wigginton (2010) or Russell Branyan (2009) with 25-30 homers and a boatload of RBI.
At the present time, Johnson is not being selected in the Top-450 of standard 5 x 5 leagues, nor has he made the Top-330 for industry drafts.
|STAR||STAR|It's worth noting that Johnson will not qualify at first base to start the season in leagues that required 20 games at a position last season. He didn't have 20 at any position with the Rays, likely making him a DH-only option with 18 games there and 13 at first.|STAR||STAR|