Week 12 Observations

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Published on November 29, 2010

Writing this while watching a painfully bad Arizona-San Francisco game:

The Thanksgiving Day games were bizarre if you bet them. The Patriots were down 14-3 as seven-point favorites, but covered, the Cowboys were down 20-3 as 3.5-point dogs and covered and the Jets were down 7-3 at the half as nine-point favorites, but covered.

Atlanta "completed" a key 4th-and-3 pass to Tony Gonzalez which was actually trapped, but Matt Ryan hustled to the line of scrimmage and called another play before Green Bay challenged it. Two things struck me as odd there: (1) It took about 20 seconds from the time Gonzalez trapped the ball to the time Ryan snapped it. About seven seconds into it, anyone watching the game knew it was trapped. Is no one with a line to Mike McCarthy watching the telecast? I mean how is it possible in today's NFL that millions should know the ball was trapped, but the coach is still in the dark until after the snap; and (2) the announcers unanimously praised Ryan and the Falcons for getting the snap off and making sure the fraudulent gain would stand. I get that Ryan has to do it, but why the praise for cashing in on a cheap technicality when he failed to execute?

What's going on in Tennessee? First, Jeff Fisher (whose team is one game out of first place) announces that Vince Young would be benched (before he knew Young was out anyway) for Rusty Smith who was clearly not ready. If Young were healthy, and Fisher gave away that game due to personal problems with Young, that's a fireable offense in my opinion. Luckily for Fisher, Young was out anyway, and he didn't have the choice between walking back his benching of Young and sabotaging his contending team. Second, why did Tennessee pay $3 million for Randy Moss when they've barely used him in three games? Third, why did Chris Johnson get only seven carries? I realize he had only five yards, and also that Tennessee was behind, but Johnson could break a long touchdown at any time, and was certainly a better bet than Smith (who threw 31 passes).

Brandon Jacobs has had fresh legs all year, and showed that was still the case despite a heavier (14-carry) workload. Jacobs isn't going to make people miss in the backfield, but he's got his burst back and is hitting the hole hard again.

My picking pool has a rule that if two people tie in a given week, the weekly pot is doubled and settled the following week. Well, the pool had been tied for seven weeks running, so it was a pretty big jackpot, and despite having a poor year overall, I won it this week.

It's not just that players like Dwayne Bowe (typically fifth-round pick), Arian Foster (depends when you had your draft), Brandon Lloyd (undrafted) and Kyle Orton (undrafted) are surprisingly among the top performers at their positions, but that they're on pace for historic numbers. Bowe is on a pace for 20 receiving TDs (behind only Jerry Rice in 1987 and Randy Moss in 2007), Foster is on pace for 2327 yards from scrimmage (would be 7th all time), Lloyd is on pace for 1632 yards (tied for 10th) and Orton is on pace for 4902 yards (3rd, behind only Drew Brees in 2008 and Dan Marino in 1984). And Michael Vick - who people felt shouldn't have taken Kevin Kolb's job due to injury (you remember who Kolb is, don't you?) - put up perhaps the greatest fantasy performance in NFL history against the Redskins.

With Adrian Peterson hurt and Chris Johnson on a fading team and a non-factor in the passing game, is Peyton Hillis the No. 2 RB right now? One thing's for certain, Manning is not the most valuable Peyton in fantasy anymore, especially after throwing seven interceptions in his last two games.

Reggie Wayne was terrible in the Colts-Chargers game, dropping at least three easy catches and failing to make plays on one or two others. He has 76 catches this year (111-catch pace), but is averaging just 11.3 yards per catch and has just four touchdowns. It looks like he's taking Torry Holt's career path where he didn't miss games, but nagging injuries and age robbed him of explosiveness, and he's just being held up now by getting targeted a lot.

Very quietly, Marques Colston is third in the NFL with 68 receptions.

The Bills not only barely lost when Steve Johnson dropped a wide open touchdown pass in overtime, but also when Ben Roethlisberger got sacked at the six-inch line. The Bills looked like the better team late in that game, which is surprising considering four or five weeks ago, the Steelers were the league's Super Bowl favorite, and the Bills were considered its worst team. If you think this kind of parity is routine in the modern NFL, consider that this year, there have been more games decided by three points or less than anytime since 1997, the 19 teams within one game of their division lead heading into Week 12 were the most in NFL history and there have been eight straight weeks with at least one overtime game, the most in a row since 2003. (Hat tip NY Times.) Consider also that the Browns beat the Saints in New Orleans, crushed the Pats at home and then barely lost to the Jets in overtime before bailing bailed out against 1-10 Carolina at home Sunday on a missed FG.

This Arizona-San Francisco game is truly terrible. If Derek Anderson is the answer, the questioner should defenestrate.