Jay Cutler's hardly a sleeper this year - his ADP on Mock Draft Central is 70, making him the seventh QB off the board. But that still strikes me as too low.

Consider that Cutler threw for 25 TDs and 4526 yards in 2008 and 27 TD in 2009. While the interceptions have been high (notably 26 last year), he thew 18 in 2008, and that's about what we can expect this year since it's well above the league average, and few QBs ever throw as many as Cutler did last year. If Cutler does throw 18-20, then that's nothing to worry about even in leagues that subtract two points per INT. Consider that Peyton Manning has averaged 14 picks the last three years - over a full season that's 8-12 less points deducted than what we'd project Cutler for, i.e., it's negligible.

On the positive side, consider that Cutler's receivers - Johnny Knox, Devin Aromashodu, Devin Hester and Earl Bennett should be significantly better with another year of experience. The difference between Year 1 and Year 2 or Year 2 and Year 3 is enormous for a player at that position. Even without Mike Martz, that's a huge difference.
But Martz' arrival is a game changer. Martz was the architect of the Greatest Show on Turf in which Kurt Warner went from a non-prospect to a two-time NFL MVP. Martz also sent Marc Bulger to the Pro Bowl and got journeyman Jon Kitna to average more than 4,100 passing yards per year with the Lions. And in 2008, Shaun Hill had 2046 yards and 13 TDs in eight starts for the 49ers under Martz. (Their top two receivers that year were an ancient Isaac Bruce and the disappointing Bryant Johnson).

Of course, it's possible that Martz does better with weaker-armed QBs who buy into his precision, quick passing scheme, and that Cutler will resist it and try to get by on his natural ability. But if Cutler buys in, and the receivers develop, 35-40 TDs would hardly be a stretch. And with last season likely representing Cutler's floor, it's hard to justify ranking him any distance behind Matt Schuab, Philip Rivers and Tony Romo.
The gap between Cutler and the next QBs on the list: Kevin Kolb and Matt Ryan is far bigger.