RotoWire Senior Editor Jeff Erickson's first Top 200 list of 2010 is now available on the site.
As always, it's a great talking point for several key players on the rise or the decline. Here are a few that caught my eye.
18. Justin Upton, ARI, OF -- .300+ with 26 homers and 20 steals mostly as a 21-year-old last season may just be the tip of the iceberg. By season's end, he could easily surpass Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp atop the positional rankings in the outfield. Skill set development from last season included an eight-percent improvement in his contact rate. Plate discipline should continue to progress with more walks he matures. Eventually, Upton could be a perennial 40/30 threat and a top-three fantasy player in all formats. By 2011, he should be a first-round lock even in one-year leagues.
24. Grady Sizemore, CLE, OF -- Still in his prime as a 27-year-old on Opening Day, Sizemore's stock is down heading into drafts this season thanks to his injury-marred 2009. Historically, health hasn't been an issue for him and there's reason to believe that he'll end up rewarding those who take a chance on him late in Round 2. The Tribe wisely put him on the operating table in mid-September to ensure that he'd have plenty of time to heal up before spring training. Watch the early reports, but his age and a move down into the heart of the order suggest that power will begin to trump his speed. Even if he steals 15-20 bags instead of 35-40, there's a ton to like here and a chance that he trades in some runs scored for RBI.
30. Kendry Morales, LAA, 1B --I'd feel better about someone like Justin Morneau if I had to chase a first baseman this high simply because of the track record -- but I'm not alone in this sentiment if you look at their recent Average Draft Positions at Mock Draft Central. Morneau is coming off the board 44th overall compared to Morales' 56th position. The truth is, I wouldn't take either player in the middle of Round 3 and if these ADP values held up in my draft, I'd rather wait for Morales. There's something very troubling about chronic back injuries, however, and Morales' improvement with his walk rate after being a first-time starter last season (eight percent) is encouraging considering how often he makes contact. The post All-Star break tear including a .330/.375/.614 line and 19 homers in 267 at-bats bodes very well for the future.
40. Ben Zobrist, TAM, 2B/OF -- I don't really have an issue with Zobrist being ranked this high, it's just a reminder of how quickly things can change from year-to-year. Would Zobrist have even made a Top 400 list this time last year? His stretch run in 2008 was impressive, but it's hard to believe anyone really saw a breakout of this magnitude coming. His SLG percentage dropped from .632 in the first half to a more sustainable .478 in the second. If he's posting an OPS over .850, nobody will complain in 2010.
61. Andrew McCutchen, PIT, OF-- Had more home runs per at-bat as a 23-year-old rookie last season for the Pirates than he did at any of his minor league stops. Slash stats were excellent as well, indicating that he should immediately be able to get on base enough to use his plus speed. There's a 31-position gap between his placement on the Top 200 and his current ADP. McCutchen is exactly the type of player you want to snag a round or two earlier given his ceiling. Trying to wait it out and hoping that the other members of your league are going to sit back on him as well is simply too risky. You'll be kicking yourself if he gets away.
88. Tommy Hanson, ATL, SP --He's not going to fly under the radar the way Brett Anderson might. What to like? Everything: Hanson misses bats, keeps the ball in the park and has outstanding command. His 9.45 K/9IP in the second half projects to 189 strikeouts if he accumulates 200 innings. Combine the whiffs with ERA and WHIP numbers that could easily rank among the best in the National League and you've got a discounted ace on your hands. Hanson won't get Verducci Rule'd away from that workload, so take the mallet to the piggy bank for him.
114. Julio Borbon, TEX, OF -- It's very unlikely that Borbon matches his .360 BABIP in his first full season with the Rangers. As a result, the torrid stolen-base pace (19 SB in 157 at-bats) isn't going to carry over, but that doesn't mean he's not a strong candidate for 40 swipes and a .280-.290 average. Borbon has never hit for much power in the minors, so 10 homers this season would be considered a major surprise. Don't be surprised if he struggles at times and has to make adjustments as scouting reports begin to circulate. Fortunately for those taking the plunge, Marlon Byrd is out of the picture in center and the Rangers expect Borbon to collect everyday at-bats as their leadoff hitter.
140. Jake Peavy, CHW, SP -- For a pitcher, moving from Petco to U.S. Cellular Field is a lot like losing your reservation at the Bellagio and getting stuck at the Excalibur. Sure, it's still Vegas, and sure, Peavy still has a useful skill set, but disappointment awaits. As he approaches his 29th birthday in May, Peavy is going to lose strikeouts with his move from the NL to the AL, while an increased number of home runs allowed is a good bet given the extreme shift in his home park tendencies. This ranking is currently 60 spots below his ADP, so there's no way you'll get a chance to buy him this low. If nothing else, let this serve as a reminder that we're unlikely to see his 2007 season again.
164. Carlos Quentin, CHW, OF -- Oft-injured can often mean undervalued at the draft table. At 27, Quentin has already spent a career's worth of time on the DL. In 2009, he was hampered by plantar fasciitis and a wrist injury that required October surgery. So why should you look through injuries and buy in? Last season, Quentin's .236 average was weighed down by a terribly unlucky .223 BABIP. The power was still there, as he went deep 21 times in just 351 at-bats, so a rebound with his average on balls in play and return to the 130-135 game mark could easily make him a valuable commodity again. Think 30 homers with 90-100 RBI if he's able to stay healthy and reclaim his place in the heart of the White Sox's order.
200. Stephen Strasburg, WAS, SP -- As Jeff indicated, "Strasburg is a tough rank; we're listing him here as a talking point." It should be a little bit easier to get a feel for the Nationals' early-season plans for Strasburg as we make our way through spring training. His ADP currently sits at 276th overall, which is probably about right given the uncertainty about his Opening Day home and the quality of the team providing him with offensive support and bullpen help (or lack thereof). That said, there are some real clunkers ahead of him including Scott Feldman (217th) and Joe Saunders (239th), and you're much better off betting on the second-half upside with Strasburg than crossing your fingers with one of the aforementioned dull veteran types.