Friday we took a look at draft bargains heading into training camp. Today, it's the players to avoid at their current ADP. The draft data is provided from our friends at NFFC, which is always PPR.
Ezekiel Elliott
ADP: 9 | RB4
This is a tough one, because like everyone else, I love Zeke Elliott as a prospect. There's very little doubt about his every-down skill set and dream draft destination in Dallas. There are just too many unknowns with any rookie to take one ahead of some other supremely talented players who have defined NFL roles. There are also lingering investigations into alleged domestic violence, which has to at least register on the worry-meter with the league's recent history. With an NFFC ADP of No. 9 overall, and even higher in other places (No. 6 in ESPN leagues, No. 7 in Yahoo), you're paying for a season without growing pains, not to mention something more serious than your average first-year hiccups.
Jordy Nelson
ADP: 16 | WR10
From 2011 to 2014 Nelson was one of the best pass-catchers in the league and a fantasy stalwart. We saw how the Packers and QB Aaron Rodgers struggled to replace Nelson's targets while he missed the 2015 season with a knee injury. The problem is, coming off a torn ACL in his age 31 season, there's no discount baked into his ADP. Ask me again when Nelson is actually cleared to play and exhibiting his pre-injury juice.
Doug Baldwin
ADP: 42 | WR26
Baldwin set shattered his career highs in every receiving category last season. In part, because the sixth-year WR was ridiculously efficient, catching 78 balls on 103 targets while finding the end zone 14 times. Those points per target numbers should normalize in 2016. Seattle is still a team that wants to run first, drafting two running backs to help replace the production of the newly retired Marshawn Lynch. Even if the Seahawks do skew a little more toward the air, as they did at the end of 2015, Tyler Lockett stands to be the main benefactor.
Marvin Jones
ADP: 65 | WR36
I wasn't high on Marvin Jones even before Anquan Boldin signed in Detroit. Now with news of Boldin running with the ones in Lions camp, Jones could become nothing more than a deep threat as the third outside target behind Golden Tate and Boldin. That doesn't include TE Eric Ebron and RB's Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdulah (207 targets combined in 2015). Tyler Lockett, Travis Kelce, Gio Bernard, Kevin White, Coby Fleener and Ryan Mathews all go within the next ten picks. Jones shouldn't be drafted over any of them.
Blake Bortles
ADP: 72 | QB8
Many fantasy owners have warm and fuzzy feeling about Blake Bortles and his league-winning year in 2015. Bortles chucked it 606 times thanks to playing on bad football team that was constantly playing from behind. Having breakout receiver Allen Robinson on the other end didn't hurt, either. While Robinson is legit, you can't expect Bortles to throw as much in 2016 due to more positive game scripts. The Jaguars defense could be drastically improved and they showed a commitment to the running game, bringing in veteran RB Chris Ivory to share the backfield with TJ Yeldon. Bortles would need to make substantial gains on his 58.6-percent completion rate to repeat as a QB1.
Jay Ajayi
ADP: 76 | RB26
I had a clear plan for Ajayi heading into 2016 and now that's all mucked up thanks to the signing of Arian Foster in Miami. My plan was to target Ajayi everywhere, because I believe in his talent. Then, especially in dynasty or keeper leagues, trade him for a large haul when he had the inevitable hot start and avoid any further knee troubles. Now he's already dinged up and Adam Gase has been talking up Foster in the early days of Dolphins camp. Your guess is as good as mine how the carries will be split in this backfield, but expect Ajayi's ADP to fall like a rock.