This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
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TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Washington Wizards at New York Knicks: The Spurs – my default defense to avoid – have struggled recently, probably at least partially due to the extra strain of seven overtime periods in their last seven games. The Wizards are having no such troubles. The Wizards had won 10 of 11 games before dropping consecutive contests to the Suns and Bulls on Sunday and Tuesday. Over their last 13 games, they rank second in opponent points per game and third in opponent points per possession. Meanwhile, the Knicks are struggling as much as ever, and they have yet to find a steady rotation since Iman Shumpert (shoulder) and J.R. Smith (heel) went down.
Offenses to Use
Los Angeles Lakers at Chicago Bulls: The Lakers are probably 2014-15's most favorable fantasy opponent. They rank in the bottom three for my go-to defensive metrics: opponent points per game, opponent points per possession, and opponent field goal and three-point field goal percentage. But though their defense is terrible, their offense has been good enough to keep them competitive in most games – preventing opponents from benching their starters early. The Bulls are strong where the Lakers are weakest (guard and power forward), and many Bulls rank among DraftKings' most consistently valuable players.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Cleveland Cavaliers, Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs
Second game of a back-to-back: None
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Aaron Brooks, CHI (vs LAL), PG, ($4,200): Coach Tom Thibodeau usually keeps a stable rotation, and Brooks has played 25 minutes or more for each of the last four games. Derrick Rose missed two of those games, Kirk Hinrich missed one, and all three (including Brooks) were active for the fourth. Yet Brooks' role held steady, as did his production, averaging 16.3 points, 4.3 assists, and 27.2 fantasy points. And Brooks' benefits from the Bulls' shared Christmas present: a matchup with the Lakers. Hinrich remains day-to-day, but Brooks is a strong play regardless of Hinrich's status.
Reggie Jackson, OKC (at SA), PG, ($5,000): It took a while, but Jackson's value has finally stabilized since Russell Westbrook's return. More importantly, his slump has ended, as Jackson has exceeded 19 points and 35 fantasy points in three consecutive outings. What makes Jackson appealing, as opposed to simply usable, is that his value stabilized before his slump ended – making Jackson's value that of a last minute Holiday Special.
Other suggestions: Ronnie Price, LAL (at CHI), PG, ($3,400)
Shooting Guard
Jamal Crawford, LAC (vs GS), SG, ($4,700): Speaking of getting out of slumps, Crawford has emerged from a rough patch of his own. Crawford, whose fantasy value is dependent on his scoring, began the month by scoring in the single digits three times in four games, and making three field goals or fewer in just five of eight games. But now Crawford is back on track, averaging 18.3 points and 1.8 threes over his last four games. Additionally, Crawford is likely to be guarded by Steph Curry, the main weak spot in the Warriors' defense.
Other suggestions: Jimmy Butler, CHI (vs LAL), SG, ($8,000)
Small Forward
Shawn Marion, CLE (at MIA), SF, ($3,200): There is not a small forward in action whose recent production justifies his Thursday price, but Marion comes the closest. He's coming off back-to-back performances of 11 points and 22-plus fantasy points, and going for a near-minimum salary. I target cheap players when a position seems overpriced, and Marion is not only cheap, but also reasonably priced.
Other suggestions: Draymond Green, GS (at LAC), SF, ($7,300)
Power Forward
Amar'e Stoudemire, NY (vs WAS), PF, ($5,900): This matchup may be generally unfavorable, but Stoudemire's price is low enough to catch my attention. Stoudemire is not particularly consistent at this point in his career, but he's still managed 30 fantasy points or more seven times this December.
Other suggestions: Udonis Haslem, MIA (vs CLE), PF, ($3,000)
Center
Chris Andersen, MIA (vs CLE), C, ($3,000): Andersen is always a risky play, since he plays few minutes and his fantasy value is heavily dependent on the less consistent categories of rebounds, steals, and blocks. But Andersen is on a bit of a streak with Chris Bosh (calf) sidelined, and Andersen has totaled at least six points, five rebounds, and a steal in each of his last four games. If Bosh returns, then Andersen becomes a much more dangerous play.
Other suggestions: Steven Adams, OKC (at SA), C, ($4,400)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Doug McDermott (knee)
Anderson Varejao (Achilles)
Andrew Bogut (knee)
Steve Nash (back)
Julius Randle (leg)
Xavier Henry (Achilles)
Ryan Kelly (hamstring)
Josh McRoberts (knee)
Justin Hamilton (concussion)
J.R. Smith (heel)
Iman Shumpert (shoulder)
Andrea Bargnani (hamstring)
Cleanthony Early (knee)
Kevin Durant (ankle)
Mitch McGary (leg)
Kawhi Leonard (hand)
Patty Mills (shoulder)
Martell Webster (back)
Game-Time Decision
Kirk Hinrich (hamstring) is day-to-day.
Kevin Love (thumb) is a game-time decision.
Festus Ezeli (ankle) is questionable.
Kobe Bryant (rest) is a game-time decision.
Chris Bosh (calf) is not expected to play Thursday.
Amar'e Stoudemire (rest) is expected to play Thursday.
