This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
Wondering if you should trust my advice? Check out my latest Trust Tracker blog post analyzing how my recommendations from my last article fared.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings: It is nearly impossible to avoid an entire team when there are only two games on the schedule, as is the case Thursday. That said, there is value in identifying which team you should be most wary of facing. Not only are the Bulls the obvious choice, but they are also the toughest matchup, statistically. The Bulls hold opponents to the fifth worst field goal percentage in the league, the ninth worst three-point field goal percentage, and the 11th fewest points per game. They hold opponents to the seventh lowest points per possession, and they allow fewer assists and blocks per game than the league averages. Only one member of the entire Sacramento Kings costs less on Thursday than his average over their previous six games (Reggie Evans, proud owner of back-to-back CD-DNPs).
Offenses to Use
LA Clippers at Miami Heat: It's easy to overlook the LeBron-less Heat. Not only do they now lack the flash and media attention, but they are also merely average. As a team, they've been inconsistent, beating better teams (like the Mavericks), and losing to inferior ones (like the Pacers the very next game). But from the fantasy perspective, there is a lot to like. With Dwyane Wade (hamstring) and Luol Deng (wrist) both doubtful, discounted backups are in line for extra action. And the Clippers are a fantasy-friendly opponent. The Clips allow the 10th best three-point field goal percentage, the ninth most points per game, and the ninth most opponent points per possession. There is no position against which DraftKings ranks the Clippers among the ten toughest, and it ranks the Clippers among the friendlier half of the league at three positions.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Chicago Bulls
Second game of a back-to-back: Los Angeles Clippers
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Norris Cole, MIA (vs LAC), PG, ($4,000): With Dwyane Wade out, coach Erik Spoelstra has relied more on two point guard lineups. In their three Wade-less games, Cole, Mario Chalmers, and Shabazz Napier have combined for an average of 85 minutes per night. In the three previous games with Wade, they combined for an average of 70 minutes per night. While the majority of those extra minutes went to Chalmers, his salary has also shot up, eliminating his fantasy benefit for daily players. Cole's salary, on the other hand, is below where it was at the start of the season, despite his current four-game streak with 20 or more fantasy points.
Chris Paul, LAC (at MIA), PG, ($9,600): With so few options available, you'll need to spend your salary somewhere. Why not spend it on one of the few premium cost options to consistently provide a worthwhile return on investment? There are discounts a-plenty, and Paul has exceeded 45 fantasy points six time in nine games. Remember, with so few options to choose from, the point total required to win most contests is drastically lowered.
Other suggestions: Shabazz Napier, MIA (vs LAC), PG, ($3,000)
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler, CHI (at SAC), SG, ($7,600): Seven options cost more than Butler Thursday. Over their last three games, only two have averaged more fantasy points than Butler. He is averaging 40 minutes and 20 points per game this season, and has scored more than 35 fantasy points seven times in nine tries. Despite this run, inexplicably, Butler is still cheap enough that he could cool off considerably and still earn a profit for daily players.
Other suggestions: There are only nine healthy shooting guards available. I do not feel confident recommending anyone of the remaining eight.
Small Forward
Mike Dunleavy, CHI (at SAC), SF, ($4,700): Dunleavy costs more Thursday than he did a week ago, but he's also posted more than 25 fantasy points in two of his past three games. As a result, the reasoning I described last week remains completely applicable: Dunleavy can throw up the occasional statistical stinker, but it is his role in coach Tom Thibodeau's rotation that has me intrigued. Because of his defensive abilities, Dunleavy is in no danger of losing court time – he's averaging 30 minutes per game. He is an above average three-point shooter, and he can be counted on for at least a handful of rebounds per game. His statistical inconsistencies stem from the fact that he is more important to the Bulls' defense than their offense. He gets a steady diet of three-point attempts every night, but his total field goal attempts fluctuate from a season low of three to a season high of 15. I shy away from Dunleavy on busier nights, but as my needs decrease for the slower nights Dunleavy's scoring inconsistencies bother me less and less, while his reliable workload and his reasonable floor appeal to me more and more.
Other suggestions: Omri Casspi, SAC (vs CHI), SF, ($3,100)
Power Forward
Taj Gibson, CHI (at SAC), PF, ($5,300): Consider this a conditional recommendation. As of this writing, Pau Gasol is still questionable for Thursday's game. If Gasol misses Thursday's game, Gibson becomes one of the best values available – on Monday, with Gasol out, Gibson racked up 20 points, five rebounds, six assists, two blocks, one steal, and 41.25 fantasy points in 41 minutes. When given a starter's workload, Gibson tends to put up some monster box scores. For whatever reason, however, Gibson's contributions when he comes off the bench don't translate as smoothly to the fantasy game. If Gasol plays, Gibson's prospects become much more dicey.
Conditional recommendations are tough if you are constructing your lineup before the official announcements are made, so whenever I make one, I offer my contingency plan. I'm putting Gibson in my lineup at the PF spot, along with Joakim Noah (see below) at UTIL. If Gasol is active, then I will swap Gibson out for Carl Landry (SAC, PF, $3,900), and I will swap Noah out for Gasol.
Other suggestions: Blake Griffin, LAC (at MIA), PF, ($9,400)
Center
Spencer Hawes, LAC (at MIA), C, ($3,300): Thursday night features four centers who cost $7,400 or more, four centers priced at the $3,000 minimum, and Spencer Hawes. DeAndre Jordan and Joakim Noah are pretty good options – I have both in the "other suggestions" are below – but if you are trying to save money at center, Hawes is your only semi-reliable option. He probably won't carry your team, but he should do just enough to pull his own weight.
Other suggestions: Joakim Noah, CHI (at SAC), C, ($7,400); DeAndre Jordan, LAC (at MIA), C, ($7,800)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Chris Douglas-Roberts (Achilles)
Game-Time Decision
Pau Gasol (calf) is questionable for Thursday's game.
Derrick Rose (hamstring) is questionable for Thursday's game.
Dwyane Wade (hamstring) is doubtful for Thursday's game.
Luol Deng (wrist) is doubtful for Thursday's game.
Josh McRoberts (hip) is on track to return for Thursday's game, but an official announcement has not yet been made.
Justin Hamilton (foot) is a game-time decision for Thursday's game.
Demarcus Cousins (hip) is probable for Thursday's game.
Rudy Gay (Achilles) is questionable for Thursday's game.
