Redd is expected to be back around the All-Star break, but there's a good chance that he has already played his final game as a Buck. His $18.3 million (!) salary this season will be valuable either at the trade deadline or when the contract comes off the books next offseason.
Redd has fallen off the map in the past year due to a string of career-threatening injuries. After missing 14 games during the early part of the 2008-09 season with an ankle injury, he suffered a devastating, season-ending injury in late-January when he landed on the foot of teammate Luke Ridnour and tore both his ACL and MCL. Redd underwent successful surgery to repair his ACL in March, and initial estimates are that he will be ready by training camp this year. Still, he’s on the wrong side of 30 and will be entering the downside of his career. He could potentially bounce back to put up top-50 numbers, especially considering the Bucks will be shorter on scorers than ever this season than, but the odds are stacked against him. Be sure to monitor Redd’s status closely as the season approaches. If healthy, he’ll provide a nice source of scoring and threes.
Last season for the first time in his eight-year career, Redd did not improve his scoring average from the year before (22.7 ppg). On the plus side, he set a new career-high in assists (3.4 apg) and a five-year high in rebounds (4.3 rpg) to make him a more well-rounded player. Redd has made his living as a long-range gunner (1.7 3pg) who uses his deceptive left-handed drives to get to the line regularly (82% FT on 6.5 attempts/game). Once considered durable, Redd has missed 39 games over the last two seasons after having missed only nine games over the previous four. Redd will be joined on the wing this season by Richard Jefferson, which may open up easier shots but also lead to fewer shot attempts for Redd.
Remarkably, Michael Redd has improved his scoring average in each of his seven NBA seasons. (At this rate, he’ll average 63 ppg when he’s 67 years old.) He also tied career highs in 3-ptrs made (2.2) and steals (1.2) in 2006-07, while setting a four-year high in field goal percentage (46.5). He doesn’t rebound (3.7 rpg) or pass (2.3 apg) well enough to be considered a real elite fantasy player – but as a combination of points, percentages and threes he’s very tough to match. He’s generally a very durable player, too – having missed just nine total games in four years before a knee injury sidelined him for 29 games last season.
Redd has steadily improved his scoring average in each of his six NBA seasons, from 2.2 ppg as a rookie second round draft pick up through 25.4 ppg as a veteran franchise player. Redd also re-found his three-point shooting dominance, hitting 39.5% of his shots from behind the arc and 2.0 three-pointers per game after declining in threes made for the previous two seasons. His solid shooting from the field (45% on 18.9 FGA) and excellent shooting from the line (87.7% on 7.1 FTA) combine to make the 6-6 sharpshooter one of the better scoring/3s/percentages combinations in the league. Redd’s game is not quite all-around enough to make him an elite fantasy option, but his 4.3 rpg and career-high 2.9 apg and 1.2 spg are still solid contributions in his non-strength categories. Redd also tends to stay healthy, having missed only nine total games since 2002.
With a brand new max contract, Redd looks to show that he’s worthy of being the Bucks’ franchise player. The 6-6 marksman has increased his scoring average every season since entering the league up to 23.0 ppg in ’04-’05, ranking him among the league leaders. The problem is, Redd has become a bit of a one-trick pony fantasy-wise. His touch from 3-point range, once his strength, has declined from 2.2 3s/game in ’02-’03 to 1.4 3s/game last season. Considering that Redd does not contribute significantly in rebounds (4.2/game), assists (2.3/game) or steals (.8/game), he would need to get back to among the league leaders in 3-pointers made to be worthy of a lofty draft pick. While his scoring and shooting percentages are solid, at this point Redd is more of a specialist than a franchise fantasy contributor.
Redd was quite a revelation for both Bucks fans and fantasy owners last season, stepping out of the shadow of Ray Allen. Ironically, Redd is a very similar player to Allen and is a threat to be this season’s top three-point shooter. His rebounding and play-making skills have fantasy owners yearning for more, but Redd’s points, threes and steals alone should make him an excellent shooting guard option on any fantasy team. Although playing time won’t be an issue, Redd might not increase his averages from last season, as the Bucks like to spread the basketball around. Because Redd’s value comes mostly from threes and points, he could be a frustrating player to own when he doesn’t shoot lights out. Draft Redd in the third round and enjoy the healthy boost to your three-pointers week after week.
Redd will get an opportunity to start at the shooting guard spot this season and should see an increase in the number of minutes. He can shoot with the best of them but has a hard time creating his own shot. Still, someone on the Bucks has to score this year and it might be him.
