Gilbert Arenas

Arenas redefines “high risk/high reward” at this point. If healthy, he could be one of the top scorers in the league. But that’s a Grand Canyon-sized “if” – knee injuries and repeated surgeries have limited Arenas to just 15 games since the 2005-2006 season ended. The reports on Arenas’ offseason workouts have been unrelentingly positive – he’s working with legendary trainer Tim Grover, whose resume includes Dwyane Wade’s successful recovery from multiple surgeries – and is reportedly down to a svelte 207 pounds – his lowest playing weight since his rookie campaign. Most importantly, he hasn’t reported any troubles or limitations relating to his balky knee. Does that mean we can expect him to average the nearly 30 points per game he was scoring pre-surgery? That seems like a lot to ask. And even if he is completely healthy, don’t forget – Eddie Jordan and his wide-open offense are now in Philadelphia, and Flip Saunders will be calling the shots in DC. The Wizards might not generate the same sort of video game scores they managed in years past. Watch the injury reports closely, and be prepared to pick Arenas… but not in the first few rounds.

Washington signed Arenas to a six-year, $111 million deal this offseason, even though he missed all but 13 games in 2007-08. Apparently, the Wizards are convinced he’s healthy and still explosive enough to help them contend in the East. In fact, the Wizards doubled down on their nucleus, re-signing Antawn Jamison as well. Arenas isn’t a classic ball-distributing point guard (5.5 career apg), but he can score it. Just think of him as two-guard that gets you more assists than most. Before the knee injury, Arenas was as explosive as anyone and could score in a number of different ways: off the dribble, as a slasher, from outside and posting up smaller defenders. He’s maintained his accuracy from 3-point range (35.8% career), but overall he takes a lot of shots, and that reduces his overall efficiency (42.6% career FG). Arenas is a fearless player who will continue to dominate the ball, but we’ll have to see whether he’s lost anything on account of the knee injury.

We like players in the final years of contracts, and that's what we have here: Arenas has said he will opt out after the 2007-08 season. It's nothing personal, Washington, it's just business. The potential of Arenas playing for his next contract excites us. Though not a huge assist man for a point guard, Arenas is a multi-category producer (career 1.76 spg, 4.2 rpg) who gets to the line enough (9.7 attempts per game last season) to make up for his low accuracy from the field. And he'll knock down a ton of threes. The Wizards as a whole could struggle at times this season. Coach Eddie Jordan can't get them to play defense, there are personal problems brewing between the team's two centers, and they've been eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in each of the last two years. No wonder Agent Zero wants out. With the offseason enhancements of other teams in the Eastern Conference (Boston, New York, Orlando), Washington is a prime candidate to fall out of playoff contention. If that happens, Arenas, already among the league leaders in shots per game, could take matters into his own hands more often. Arenas is expected to be ready for training camp after suffering a knee injury late last year.

Arenas’ minor groin injury in Team USA training camp may have been a blessing in disguise. Instead of leading LeBron and Company in Japan, Arenas can rest up, get healthy, and prepare for a run at the scoring title. This could be the year that Arenas surpasses Allen Iverson as the premier scoring point guard in the league, but don’t assume that his 29-point-per-game average makes him a one-trick pony. Arenas is among the best at his position because he scores like a top off-guard, but still produces assists, steals, and a surprisingly high number of boards. Look for him to build off last season’s strong showing against the Cavaliers in the first round of the playoffs, and to take his place as one of the top two or three guards in fantasy this season.

Arenas was so good last season, the NBA named a rule after him; the provision in the new collective bargaining agreement designed to prevent capped-out teams from losing productive second-round picks has been dubbed the “Gilbert Arenas rule.” (Now, these rule names can be a mixed blessing… sure, the Larry Bird rule has worked out very nicely… but the Allan Houston exception wasn’t even applied to Allan Houston, and I’d bet no one but Trent Tucker’s immediate family remembers what the Trent Tucker rule is.) Leading the Wizards’ explosive offense, Arenas blossomed in his second season in DC. He increased his points-per-game to 25.5 while posting 5.1 assists and a surprising 4.7 boards per game. He shot 43% from the floor and 36% from downtown, and averaged eight trips to the foul line per contest, converting 6.5. In what appears to be a growing trend this season, Arenas will spend more time at the off guard position this season while some combination of Antonio Daniels and Chucky Atkins run the offense.

After signing a big free-agent contract with the Wiz, Arenas' shooting percentage took a turn for the worse, finishing the year at 39.2 percent. There's no question that Arenas can score; he still averaged 19.6 per game last season, and nailed 125 threes on the year. Arenas averages almost two steals and more than five assists a game as well. The Wizards need someone to take control of their free-form offense (both Arenas and Larry Hughes shot less than 40 percent lat season, and the enigmatic Kwame Brown was the team's best inside threat), and it remains to be seen if Arenas can take that next step as a player and as a leader. But for fantasy purposes, if you can absorb the low shooting percentage, Arenas will help you across the board.

The NBA's Most Improved Player last season signed a big contract with the Wizards to be the team's starting point guard. During his second NBA season, Arenas made a quantum leap, averaging 18.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 1.51 steals in 35.0 minutes over 82 games (all starts). Expect similar numbers this year.