Over the past two years, Murphy has averaged 14.5 points, 11.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.0 three-pointers, making him one of the most versatile players in the league. He's not the most durable player, but Murphy shoots free throws well and also limits turnovers. He's never been considered an elite NBA asset, but fantasy owners certainly respect what he brings to the table. There's always a risk when non-elite players switch teams, but Murphy now finds himself on the Nets, who have few scoring options outside of Devin Harris and Brook Lopez. Guys like Terrence Williams should improve, but while Derrick Favors has a ton of potential and plays power forward, he's quite raw and is unlikely ready to step into a big role his rookie season. Murphy is actually from New Jersey, and while he may not be in the Nets' long-term plans ($11.9 million expiring contract is probably the main reason the team traded for him), he should still get plenty of minutes in 2010-11. Don't count on Murphy producing similar numbers to his last two campaigns, but he'll still be plenty valuable even with a modest decline.
Murphy was likely on a lot of winning fantasy teams last year, when he became the first player in NBA history to finish in the top-five in rebounds and three-point-shooting percentage. There’s simply no denying how effective he was last year, as few players offered that kind of versatility (14.3 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 2.2 3PT, 82.6 FT%). However, it’s rarely wise to invest in a player approaching 30 years old coming off a career-season. Consider that Murphy averaged just 7.2 boards in 2008-09 and 6.1 boards the year before that. Tyler Hansbrough will take away some minutes at power forward this year, as will Danny Granger. Still it’s unlikely you’ll find a better source of three-pointers from someone eligible at center in some formats. Moreover, since the departure of Jermaine O’Neal, Indiana still hasn’t properly addressed the team’s weakness in the paint, as Jeff Foster and Roy Hibbert are battling to start in the middle. As a result, Murphy is once again going to be asked to crash the glass this year.
Murphy is an ideal fit for a Jim O’Brien team – he’s a hard worker on both ends of the floor, and he can hit an outside jumper (39.8 from three last season). He has the size to play the middle, particularly on a fast-paced team like the Pacers – his 26 starts at the pivot last season will qualify him at center in most formats. But he’ll likely see the bulk of his playing time this year at the four spot, helping to space the floor with his perimeter shooting. On the down side, that positioning will limit his rebounding opportunities.
The prevailing wisdom was that Murphy was a better fit in Carlisle's half-court system, rather than the fast-paced play under Don Nelson in Golden State. That might be true - his points per game, shooting percentage and minutes all increased after the midseason trade to the Pacers. That said, the switch to O'Brien won't necessarily hurt Murphy. Much of his offensive production comes from the perimeter - he's averaged 58 three-pointers per season the last three years, a total that's likely to go up in O'Brien's 3-point paradise. The one disturbing statistical trend for Murphy is his dropping rebound rate - after consistently pulling down double-digit rebounds for most of his career, he only averaged 6.1 per game last year. It wasn't a change of systems that created the drop - the rate was nearly the same at Golden State and Indiana. The other concern about Murphy is his health. Some of his injuries have been flukes, like last year's broken nose, but the fact remains that he's missed an average of 22 games the last four seasons.
Murphy’s fantasy value is tied entirely into his strong rebounding. He was sixth in the NBA with 10.0 rpg last season, and has averaged double-digit rebounds in each of the three seasons that he has been a full-time starter. Murphy is also a decent scorer (14.0 ppg) and can knock down the long-range jumper (.8 threes per game), but his relative lack of athletic ability makes him a below-average defender (.6 spg, .4 bpg), and his perimeter-oriented offensive game leads to low shooting percentages (43% FG). On the whole, Murphy is a good one-category performer that is solid enough not to hurt you too badly in other areas.
If Murphy could just stay healthy, he might emerge as a true force at the power forward position, but he always finds a way to miss a significant chunk of games with one injury or another, playing in 70 out of 82 games in 2004-05. When he was in there, Murphy thrived as a scorer and rebounder, putting up 15.4 points and 10.8 rebounds per game, the second time he's averaged a double-double in his four-year career. The 25-year-old isn't likely to have a lot of 30-plus scoring nights, but he's in a similar spot to Elton Brand in that he plays on a team with a lot of chuckers (Jason Richardson and Baron Davis, among others), so he's likely to pick up a ton of boards and some garbage points from offensive rebounds. He won't give you much in the way of shot-blocking, steals or assists, but he is capable of burying a few threes, which is a nice bonus from the power forward spot.
We don't pretend to understand the motivation behind many of Chris Mullin's moves in his first season in charge of the Warriors' front office. We go back and forth on which deal is more shocking - Adonal Foyle or Derek Fisher. But a return to form for Troy Murphy could wind up making Mullin look smart. Murphy was on his way to becoming one of the top young fours in the NBA before a series of injuries ruined his 2004 season. Look for significant improvements in his game this season, and a double-double average isn't out of the question. With Erick Dampier gone, Murphy will have ample opportunity to redeem himself. The team hasn’t extended his rookie contract yet, so there is motivation in playing for his next summer’s free agent market.
Murphy's 2003-04 season was marred by a stress fracture in his foot and eventually relapsed after returning in February. The organization talks about a young core with Murphy, Jason Richardson and Mike Dunleavy Jr., but they will want to see he's over the foot problem. Murphy will begin the season as the starting power forward and have the opportunity to replicate his sophomore season (11.7 ppg, 10.2 rpg) with Erick Dampier gone. At this time, the team has not extended his contract.
