McGrady was an interesting signing for the Hawks based on how well he fared towards the end of last season with the Pistons. He can play three different positions, so he could earn significant minutes if someone goes down with an injury. He’s already going to see increased minutes to start the season with Hinrich out. McGrady is no iron horse himself, so he may not be able to play significant minutes even if he is presented with them. While he’s clearly a shell of the player he used to be, he could provide fantasy owners with cheap value in deeper leagues.
The one thing you can say about McGrady's 2009-10 season is that he played basketball without experiencing a season-ending injury. That's not a ringing endorse, no, but it's something. Unfortunately, he shot under 40%, didn't score all that much even on a per-minute basis, and generally underwhelmed. He signed with Detroit this offseason, and sources say that McGrady's fitness is improved. Still, it's unlikely he gets adequate minutes behind the Pistons' myriad swing men.
The superstar McGrady of five years ago is probably gone for good, and that assumes he can get back up to full speed even in his current incarnation. McGrady's returning from microfracture surgery on his left knee, and while he looked good in five-on-five drills at press time, his status for the start of the year is in doubt. If relatively healthy, McGrady can still score in the high teens, hand out five assists and pull down 4-5 boards. He'll also hit a few threes and average over a steal per game. But his field-goal shooting is poor, and his free-throw shooting isn't great from the guard spot, either. Expect him to log less minutes this year, but when he plays he will fill up the box score on occasion.
McGrady was limited to only 66 games last season, the fourth time in the last five years that he has missed at least 11 games (average of 19 missed games in those four seasons). McGrady is still a 6-8 swingman capable of dropping 40 points on any given night, but he’s no longer an athletic marvel, and he relies more upon perimeter shooting (41.9% FG, 1.3 3pg) than driving into traffic for the highlight-reel dunk (eight-year low 5.4 FTA/game). Moreover, the presence of Ron Artest in Houston could cut into McGrady’s shot attempts, though it should also open up the offense and boost McGrady’s shooting efficiency. McGrady won’t ever approach his career season of 32.1 points per game, but he still has legit 20/5/5 capability and will be an asset so long as he stays healthy.
McGrady has first-round talent. Unfortunately, his aching back wouldn’t even merit selection in a supplemental round. T-Mac’s fantasy value will generally be limited only by the number of games he’s able to play, and he’s missed at least 11 in three of the last four years. When healthy, he’s one of the few players capable of averaging 25/5/5 with solid contributions in three-pointers and steals. He might not top 30 ppg ever again, but as one of the primary initiators of the offense, he racks up a lot of dimes. His 6.5 assists per game in 2006-07 established a new career-high. If you draft McGrady, just make sure to pick up a capable backup as well – then hope you won’t need the other guy for more than five or 10 games.
The key question for McGrady this season is health, specifically the health of the aching back that caused him to miss 35 games last season. The injury diminished McGrady’s play even when he was able to get on the court as he was not quite as explosive and tended to hang on the perimeter and avoid contact at the rim, which led to six-year lows in scoring (24.4 ppg) and assists (4.8 apg) with a career-low 40.6% shooting from the field. Despite the injury, McGrady still produced elite scoring/assists/rebounding (6.6 rpg) numbers while also knocking down 1.6 3-pointers per game and producing more than two combined steals/blocks per game as well. If healthy McGrady is a definite first-round talent, but with his injury concerns it may be possible to get him a bit later this season which could make him a potential second-round steal.
In year one with Yao, McGrady did score a little less, and thankfully took fewer threes, to restore his field goal percentage to more respectable levels, but otherwise, everything held the same. He steals, he scores, he dishes, he rebounds. All he doesn't do is shoot well anymore. He did can better than 45% of his shots in the first three of his four years in Orlando, so he's certainly capable of amping it up there. If he does, and pumps that free throw percentage up over 79% again, McGrady steps back into the middle of the first round. Otherwise, the lesser scoring and three-point production indicate a slightly lower draft slot than we're used to. He also tends to miss a handful of games, which leads to a top-10 draft pick often finishing just outside the top ten in season totals.
McGrady has traded in his Magic jersey for a Rockets one this off-season, coming over to Houston in a huge multi-player deal involving Steve Francis and Cuttino Mobley among others. McGrady was all smiles upon learning of this trade, but his fantasy outlook should be anything but positive. Under coach Jeff Van Gundy’s defense-emphasized, slow-tempo style of basketball, McGrady will be hard-pressed to find nearly as many shot attempts as he did in Orlando. Expect a hefty drop-off in McGrady’s output, as he figures to score around 24 or 25 points per game. Still, McGrady should offer about 2.5-3.0 threes, 5-6 rebounds, 5-6 assists, two steals and 0.5-0.7 blocks per game. And he might even improve on his FG% with his refined shot selection in Houston. Although McGrady might not be a no-brainer top-5 pick this season, McGrady should still be an excellent pick in the mid-first round and would be an absolute steal should he fall to the late first round.
One of the elite fantasy players in the league, McGrady does it all - score, rebound, pass, steal, and block. McGrady led the league in scoring last season, averaging 32.1 points per game. Barring injuries, don't expect anything less than a top-10 fantasy player when you select McGrady.
