Hoops Lab: Year-long vs. DFS Mindset

Through the first two games of the season, Anthony Davis averaged 47.5 points on 52 percent shooting to go with 16.0 boards, 4.0 assists, 3.5 steals, 3.0 blocks and only 2.0 turnovers.

(Part of me wanted to write that down just to see if it looked as ridiculous on paper as it sounded in my head and…yup, it does).

On the flip side, through the first two games of the season, Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 18.0 points on 49%, 5.0 boards, 4.5 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.5 turnovers.

As you may remember from last week's article, there was a debate this offseason as to whether Karl-Anthony Towns might actually be better than Anthony Davis this year. After this week, is this even a question anymore? Could anyone on Earth possibly still rank Towns over Davis for this year?

Well…maybe.

Here's an exchange between a Hoops Lab reader and I from the comments section of my Towns vs. Davis video:

Philtheez: "Well thought out comparison. Looks like others are jumping on the bandwagon. Prescient article."

Me: "Thank you, sir. Of course, if Davis keeps dropping 50-point games this won't be much of a competition unless KAT goes crazy"

Philtheez: "We knew Davis was capable of this. Health has always been the critical factor. Doesn't take away from your analysis…"

Therein lies the rub. If you're a DFS owner, your definition of "best player" comes down to who is capable of producing the most in any given night. But in a season-long league, you HAVE to take into consideration what things are likely to look like in the long term.

And philtheez is right…Davis had already proven that he was capable of putting up video game box score numbers on a level that no other big man in this generation has shown. He demonstrated this two seasons ago, which was why Davis entered last season as the consensus number one pick in fantasy. However, he went on to miss 21 games, causing his actual value ranking to slide (#18 overall, according to Yahoo's rankings).

In his four seasons in the NBA, Davis has played in 64, 67, 68, and 61 games. Meanwhile, Towns has not missed a game since high school, including playing in all 82 games as a rookie. Towns' per-game numbers last season weren't nearly as strong as Davis', but health and availability meant Towns finished with the better season-long ranking (#6 overall, per Yahoo).

So, where does that leave us right now? I've got Anthony Davis in one league, and I've got Karl-Anthony Towns in another. If the Towns owner approached me with a 1-for-1 offer in the league where I have Davis, I'd absolutely respond by asking for more. I'd note Davis' Space Jam-like performances thus far, as well as his history that demonstrates such numbers could feasibly continue. I'd then ask that the owner throw in a significantly valuable second player before I'd consider moving him.

BUT…if the Davis owner approached me in the league where I have Towns, I'd do just the opposite. I'd cite Davis' injury concerns, and how difficult it is to win weekly-leagues and/or playoffs match-ups when you aren't sure whether your best player will be available, and therefore ask that the owner throw in added value before I'd consider moving him.

Season-long fantasy hoops is all about projecting and managing value and negotiating the best path through those unknowns. It's a lot like playing chess.

But in DFS It doesn't have to be nearly that complicated. On Tuesday, I'm riding the hot hand and starting Davis in multiple DFS leagues, while I'm not going to have Town on any squads until either he gets in gear or his price goes down. I don't have to project or negotiate anything. Sure, Towns is going to wake up and find his level. And maybe Davis will stay healthy; maybe he won't. But as long as Davis is healthy and on his NBA James mode TODAY then, in the words of the philosopher Lil Wayne, as a DFS owner "I ain't got no worries".

Around the NBA

Why aren't Warriors stomping the league?
On Sunday, I did an interview with Nick Whalen on Sirius XM (see below), and one of the questions that he asked me was whether I was worried by the Warriors' relatively slow start. While they are a respectable 2 -1 on the year, they barely beat the winless Pelicans and Suns after being curb-stomped by the Spurs on opening night. Last season, they didn't lose until November, and this year the addition of Kevin Durant was supposed to make them even scarier. So what gives?

To me, I think this is an example of the kind of Overreactions that DJ, Nick and crew have been podcasting about. Just like we discussed in the lead, it's still too early to make any kind of year-long judgments. For the Warriors, they added a new fundamental piece to their offense and shifted a lot of roles. And since this was an Olympic year in which several Warriors participated, they didn't get to use the offseason to establish chemistry.

I do think it's interesting that through three games, Durant has clearly been the primary offensive option, with Stephen Curry more in a secondary role, and I'll be watching to see if this continues or corrects itself moving forward. But ultimately, there is just too much talent there. Once the Warroprs harness it and get moving in the same direction, I fully expect them to become a dominant team again. If they don't, it will be the biggest story of the season.

LeBron coast?LeBron James is the best basketball player in the world. I've been saying that for quite a while, and he proved it yet again in the 2016 NBA Finals. So, why isn't he at the top of anyone's fantasy lists anymore? He ranks 11th and 12th, respectively, in the Rotowire year-long Roto and H2H rankings, and his average draft slot in Yahoo! leagues was 7.9.

Why? Partly, because he has small weaknesses such as a lower free throw percentage or fewer treys than some of the top perimeter options who show up in roto leagues. But primarily, he slides a bit because there is a general expectation that he will get quite a few "DNP-rest" and/or sit for extended periods in blowouts so that he can stay fresh for the playoffs. LeBron is no spring chicken anymore -- he'll turn 32 next month -- and he has played in the NBA Finals and/or Olympics in six straight offseasons. Resting him as much as possible is absolutely the right thing to do for the Cavaliers, but the uncertainty of when those rests might occur is enough to move him out of the fantasy elite and more into the second-star-on-a-championship-team grouping.

Can Westbrook keep it up?
In the opening, I wrote down the numbers from Anthony Davis' first two starts. Well, here are the numbers for Russell Westbrook's first three: 38.7 points, 45.3% FG, 81% FT, 12.3 rebounds, 11.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 4.7 turnovers per game. He has two triple-doubles (and was one assist shy of a third), and has scored at least 32 point in every game. Is there any way that he can sustain this for 82 games?

Actually…yeah. It is possible. As absurd as it sounds. Westbrook, motor-wise, is the closest thing I've seen to the relentlessness of Allen Iverson. He just keeps coming at you and coming at you until he wears you down. But while Iverson was accomplishing this despite having to stretch for 6-feet and weighing about a buck-seventy five soaking wet, Westbrook is 6-3 and built like a tank with absurd athletic ability. He also has a history of durability -- at least 80 games played in five of his eight NBA seasons -- and is just reaching his physical peak at age 27. Throw in the motivation factor of showing everyone, once and for all, that he is actually better than Kevin Durant, and yeah, I can see Westbrook maintaining this level. I don't think he'll necessarily average a triple-double -- the rebounds are the most likely category for him to drop a bit -- but if he's able to stay on triple-double pace for the first month or two I wouldn't put it past him to try to make a serious run at Oscar Robertson's record.

Antetokounmpo the one-man band? As those that have followed the Hoops Lab know, I've been very high on Giannis Anttokounmpo ever since I saw him play in Vegas a few years back. He was a monster then, and I knew it'd only be a matter of time before he translated that to the NBA. And he has started doing so, turning into one of the most explosive and dynamic players in the league. In the offseason I talked about how the Bucks' experiment with him as a 6-11 point guard might make him lethal. And even though he's been really splitting point guard duties with Matthew Dellavedova, through the first week he has lived up to expectations. Antetokounmpo is averaging 23 points, 9.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.0 steals with only 2.3 turnovers. Outstanding.

But if you've watched the Bucks at all this year, it should jump out at you that they really just don't have much talent around him. They are starting Jabari Parker, Dellavedova, Miles Plumlee and Tony Snell as a supporting cast. Since Khris Middleton went down, you can make the argument that it may be the worst cast in the NBA (outside of Brooklyn, of course), unless/until Parker makes a significant leap forward. The upshot of this, from a fantasy perspective, is that the Bucks look to be pretty much a one-man gang this year. Antetokounmpo could legitimately lead the team in all five major categories -- points, boards, assists, blocks, steals -- and will continue to be the obvious focal point in all that the Bucks do. The only question is whether he is physically ready to carry that type of load for a full NBA season, but other than that he should be expected to continue to put up monster numbers, because no one else on his team can do it.

Turner for real?Myles Turner exploded onto the scene this season with 30 points, 16 boards, four blocks and two steals in his first game of the season. His quick start has prompted many to focus on him for the first time and ask if he is for real. I say 'yes and no'. He's not going to give you 30 and 15 a night, as he's already shown in the two games since. However, he is absolutely legit as an impact player who should finish the season among the fantasy elite. Turner will be a nightly double-double threat with 20 ppg potential, and he has blocked at least three shots in every game. Turner slid to 11th in the 2015 NBA Draft after a mostly underwhelming freshman year at Texas, but he had entered college as the No. 2 prospect in high school, behind Jalil Okafor and ahead of Karl-Anthony Towns. Turner has the pedigree, the size, and the talent to absolutely grow into one of the best big men in the NBA. In fact, he may already be there.

Rubio's elbow
I was watching the Timberwolves-Kings game on Saturday, when this happened:

Ricky Rubio just left the game with an elbow injury. No word yet on how serious it might be #Timberwolves#fantasy#DFS

— Andre Snellings (@ProfessorDrz) October 30, 2016

Booker's toe
Devin Booker has a sprained right big toe that kept him out of Monday night's game against the Clippers. He is considered day-to-day, but foot and toe injuries have a bad habit of lingering and/or re-injury that makes me wary. The Suns claim they're simply playing it safe by sitting Booker, so hopefully this is a minor injury that will pass soon.

Barbershop conversation -- Which group would you pick to start your team?

Fun non-fantasy question: If you were an NBA GM and had a choice between starting your team with either:

Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and Hakeem Olajuwon (Team 1)

OR

LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki and Tim Duncan (Team 2)

Which would you choose? Assume you're filling out the rest of the team with role players and a generic coach. Which do you think you could make a better team out of? I explore this debate over in the Historical Comparisons section of the Hoops Lab blog. I invite you to come check it out and chime in with your opinion in the comments section. If you make a good comment and leave your handle, I'll shout you out on Twitter.

I know you heard me on the radio…true…I know you seen me in the video…true…

New section here with a title shouting out to Lil' Kim. Here, I'll post any radio or video clips from the week. This week I made two appearances on the Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today show on XM 87/Sirius 210. The first appearance was on Tuesday at 1:30 pm EST, hosted by Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson while the second was on Saturday at 2:30 pm EST, hosted by Nick Whalen.

Here's a clip from Tuesday's interview. In it we talk a lot about the Knicks and the Magic. Is Kristaps Porzingis the unquestioned "man" in New York? What should we expect from Serge Ibaka in Orlando? Follow the link and hear what we have to say on those questions.

New Additions and DFS value
Trevor Booker, PF (50% owned in Yahoo! leagues): Booker is getting major playing time as the spark plug big man on a Nets team with extremely little talent. He's playing next to a center in Brook Lopez, who isn't the greatest rebounder or defender, and he's taking advantage of it to the tune of 10.0 rebounds, 9.3 points, 2.0 steals and 0.5 blocks per game through the first week.

Matthew Dellavedova, G (48% owned): Dellavedova has slotted in as the co-point guard next to Giannis Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee, and he seems to have found a home. He's averaging 11.7 points, 5.7 assists, 1.0 treys and 1.0 steals and may very well be the second or, at worst, third-best player on the team.

Patty Mills, PG (27% owned) and J.J. Barea, G (25% owned): Both Mills and Barea are spark-plug scoring guards who have typically come off the bench to this point in their careers. But both play on veteran teams that aren't afraid to mix up starting lineups due to rest or injuries. Both are reasonable sources of points, assists and threes and can put up legit starter-type production when they make cameos in the starting lineup.

Mike Muscala, FC (19% owned): Muscala is more of a watch-and-see outside of deep leagues. He's seeing about 22 minutes off the bench for the Hawks, which has translated into 11 points, 4.0 boards, 1.7 blocks and 1.0 steals per game in the earlygoing. The problem is that he needs those defensive stats in order to be of much use. and they are likely unsustainable. Even so, Muscala is worth keeping an eye on, especially if either Dwight Howard or Paul Millsap has any kind of injury issue in Atlanta.

Andre Roberson, SG/SF (11% owned): Roberson emerged on my radar last season during a good DFS stretch, and thus has a special place in my heart. He's a defensive specialist on the wing so his 2.7 steals, 1.0 block and 7.7 rebounds are what make him fantasy-relevant. He won't score many points playing next to Russell Westbrook, but he may be able to make a fantasy living as a roto garbageman who fills the defensive stat categories.

Keeping up with the Professor
The Hoops Lab is now a blog with daily content, so check out/follow hoopslab.hsmyyt.com every day. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210 on Tuesdays at 1:30 PM EST. Plus, I'm doing DFS articles just about every day on the site. I am also writing analytics pieces for Nylon Calculus on the Fansided Network, and I co-host the TYT basketball show on the weekends.