This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Welcome to the final day of the regular season. Incentives are flipped league-wide, and few of the normal rules of regular season DFS apply. There are a whopping 14 games Wednesday, and with so many backups replacing stars in starting lineups, values are everywhere. With so many values and so many games, winning fantasy scores will probably be through the roof. It will be one of the wildest, but also most fun nights to play daily games.
The most predictable performances will come from the few teams that still have something to play for. Here is the exhaustive list of teams that actually care if they win:
Eastern Conference (all games start simultaneously at 8 p.m. EDT):
Celtics – Can secure the top seed with a win (or a Cavaliers loss), so they should be motivated in a meaningless game for the Bucks, who are locked into the sixth seed.
Heat – Will miss playoffs if they lose (with a win, they also need either the Bulls or Pacers to lose).
Bulls – Win and they are in. If they lose, the Heat determine their fate.
Pacers – Win and they are in. If they lose, they need either the Heat or the Bulls to lose.
Western Conference:
Clippers – Homecourt advantage in first round with win, or Jazz loss. The Jazz game starts 90 minutes before Clippers' game.
Jazz – Homecourt advantage in first round with win and Clippers loss.
That's it. No other team benefits from a win. Every other team is either already locked into their playoff position, or fighting for lottery priority.
GUARDS
Isaiah Thomas, BOS vs. MIL ($45): There are a ton of value options available, which will leave rosters with extra cash. Managers will want to spend that cash on players who will play the whole game, and the six teams above are the only ones that can be trusted to use their stars predictably. Thomas is the one of the most expensive players on the six teams listed above. The Celtics rely on his scoring, and the offense has struggled when he was on the bench in recent games. Thomas has proven himself as a clutch performer all season, and his teammates have commented publicly on how much Thomas wants the Celtics to earn the one-seed. He hasn't had many profitable nights lately, but he he hasn't scored fewer than 30 fantasy points since the end of February.
J.J. Barea, DAL at MEM ($10): Many minimum salary players are in line for big minutes Wednesday, but few have Barea's track record for success. After starting the season looking like a candidate for Most Improved, Barea's scorching start was derailed by injuries, forcing him to miss 46 games. He never again saw the steady workload he had during his first nine games, but whenever he played at least 20 minutes, he was almost certain to help fantasy lineups. On Tuesday, Barea started in place of Wesley Matthews (rest) and had 33.8 fantasy points thanks to 13 points and nine assists in 27 minutes.
Other suggestions: Ty Lawson, SAC at LAC ($10); Jordan Crawford, NO at POR ($14); Quinn Cook, NO at POR ($10); Malcolm Brogdon, MIL at BOS ($17); Goran Dragic, MIA vs. WAS ($33)
Guard to Avoid
Chris Paul, LAC vs. SAC ($44): Paul is my only exception to the "start stars on the six teams listed above" rule because the Clippers only half-way belong on that list. By halftime, they will know how the Jazz fared against the full-strength Spurs. If the Jazz lose, then the Clippers no longer have anything to gain by winning. Paul hasn't missed a game since returning from his thumb injury in late February, and the Clippers would be wise to take advantage of the opportunity to rests their studs, even if only for half a game. Even if the Jazz win, however, Paul is unlikely to play the whole game, since they face a depleted Kings squad that the Clippers should blow out easily.
FORWARDS
Paul George, IND vs. ATL ($45): As described above, it's hard to trust expensive players unless they are still playing for something. In that category, George costs $5 less than Jimmy Butler but is averaging more fantasy points per game over his last six. Though the Hawks haven't announced any rests yet, they clinched their playoff seed with a win Tuesday and seem likely to take advantage of their only opportunity. George has scored at least 40 fantasy points in each of the last six games, including two games in the mid-50s and one game of 75.3.
Josh Richardson, MIA vs. WAS ($16):Dion Waiters (ankle) is unlikely to return Wednesday, leaving the starting job to Richardson, who has flourished since Waiters went out. He is riding a five-game streak with at least 25 fantasy points and double-digit scoring while playing an average of 35.9 minutes per game since Waiters' injury.
Other suggestions: Kelly Oubre, Was at MIA ($10); Gordon Hayward, UTA vs. SA ($37); Jimmy Butler, CHI vs. BKN ($50)
Forward to Avoid
Kawhi Leonard, SA at UTA ($48): Leonard is expected to be active Wednesday, but don't let that fool you. The Spurs have nothing left to play for, and coach Gregg Popovich is a notorious rester. Over his last four games, Leonard played 14 minutes, DNP-rest, 35 minutes and 20 minutes, respectively. Three out of four of those options would destroy a fantasy lineup, and Leonard was "active" for two of them.
CENTERS
Rudy Gobert, UTA vs. SA ($41): A continuation of the "stars in games that count" theme, Gobert is cheaper than many of the other players in this category. Not only is he fourth in the league in double-doubles, but he has 20 blocks in his last six games. Also like Thomas, he has a high floor, with only one game with fewer than 30 fantasy points since early March.
Greg Monroe, MIL at BOS ($16): In the summer of 2015, the biggest free agent to change teams was LaMarcus Aldridge. The second biggest? Monroe. The NBA universe is much lower on Monroe now, but Wednesday, he'll get a chance to remind the world why the Bucks coughed up $50 million over three years. The Bucks are resting almost everyone, and Monroe is the only active player who has averaged 15 points per game in any of the past five seasons. In the last two games, playing only 24.0 minutes, he has averaged 31.9 fantasy points per game. With so many inactives Wednesday, they'll have a hard time not playing him more, even if some of it comes at power forward.
Other suggestions: Justin Hamilton, BKN at CHI ($10); Robin Lopez, CHI vs. BKN ($11); DeAndre Jordan, LAC vs. SAC ($31)
Center to Avoid
Boban Marjanovic, DET at ORL ($12): Center is loaded Wednesday, and I've already beaten the "focus on people in games that matter" thing well past the point of death. Marjanovic scored 27 points in a double-double Friday, blasting himself into fantasy conversations. He followed that up with a 14-point double-double, keeping the hype going despite the lesser performance. But he fell further in game three, down to only eight points and eight rebounds. Meanwhile, Henry Ellenson is playing identical minutes. Ellenson isn't worth using on his own, but his presence damages Marjonovic enough to make him a risk in fantasy.
