This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Most teams have only played three or four games since the All-Star break and the trade deadline, which is a small sample. Therefore, we must choose between looking at a potentially unreliably small sample, or including data from before 36 players were traded between 17 teams. I used by best judgment, looking at each team independently, and did not stick to one approach or the other.
The Mavericks haven't played anyone as good as the Hawks since the All-Star break, but they have only allowed 95.8 points per 100 possessions, best in the league over that period. The Hawks are a good team, but not a good offense, so look for them to struggle against this better-than-expected Mavericks defense.
Some defenses to target are the Knicks, Clippers and Nuggets, who face the Magic, Rockets, and Bucks, respectively. All three teams are in the bottom 10 per-possession defenses over the last 10 games and since the trade deadline.
GUARDS
Bradley Beal, WAS at TOR ($32):Cory Joseph has the worst defensive rating on the Raptors. Kyle Lowry (wrist), who Joseph is now starting in place of, had the third-best, excluding players averaging 10 minutes per game or fewer and players who have appeared in five or fewer games. DeMar DeRozan's defensive rating in only 1.0 point per 100 possessions better than Joseph's, which is the second-worst among Raptors' non-PF/Cs. Regardless of who is charged with guarding Beal, they are among the worst the Raptors have to offer. Beal has at least 22 points, three rebounds, two threes, two assists and 33 fantasy points in each of his first three games since the All-Star break. Two of those games were against the Jazz and the Warriors, two of the best defensive teams in the league.
Kyle Korver, CLE at BOS ($11): Boston is actually the second-best team in the league in opponent three-point percentage, but Korver's price is such a discount that it doesn't matter. The longer Korver has been with the Cavaliers, the better his numbers have gotten. He averaged an unbelievable 58.9 percent from behind the arc in February, averaging 3.9 made threes on 6.6 attempts per game. He scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in 10 of 11 games in February, and managed a won't-help-but-won't-hurt 12.2 fantasy points in the remaining game. Three times he scored more than 30 fantasy points, including in two of his last four.
Other suggestions: Gary Harris, DEN at MIL ($19); Malcolm Brogdon, MIL vs. DEN ($14)
Guard to Avoid
Jrue Holiday, NO vs. DET ($34): I'm a big believer in the ability of off-court events to impact on-court performance. Tuesday's "news" that the Knicks are likely to pursue Holiday in the offseason is a distraction that is unlikely to help his performance on the court. That issue aside, the Pistons have been an elite defense recently, ranking third over the past 10 games and seventh since the All-Star break in points per possession. Finally, in his three games since the break, Holiday has only scored 15.8, 32.4 and 22.6 fantasy points, respectively. Bad matchup, bad recent performances and annoying off-court distractions is not a promising combination of factors.
FORWARDS
Gordon Hayward, UTA vs. MIN ($35): Most of the expensive forwards face difficult matchups, so this is a night I'd rather spend big on guards and centers. After Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is overpriced, Hayward arguably has the easiest matchup among forwards costing at least $35. The Timberwolves rank in the bottom third of the league in points per possession over the last 10 games. Using RotoWire's defense verse position rankings, they rank in the more favorable half of the league against small forwards over the last five games. Hayward has also profited in each of his games since the All-Star break, averaging 39.1 fantasy points per game over that span.
Terrence Ross, ORL vs. NY ($12): Since joining the Magic, Ross is averaging 18.5 points in 34.0 minutes per game. Those points alone would make Ross profitable, but he is also adding 4.5 rebounds, 3.0 threes, as well as a spattering of steals (the steals numbers seem unusually high, hence my excluding the fact that he's averaging 2.5 per game). Importantly, his field-goal attempts have been stable through both contests, totaling 17 in one and 15 in the other, which implies that he has a consistent role in the offense. On top of all that, he now faces the Knicks, who have one of the worst defenses in the league.
Other suggestions: Robert Covington, PHI at MIA ($28); Dario Saric, PHI at MIA ($22); Kyle O'Quinn, NY at ORL ($11); Richaun Holmes, PHI at MIA ($10)
Forward to Avoid
Otto Porter, WAS at TOR ($27): Though the Lowry injury makes the Raptors' backcourt worse, their trade deadline moves make their frontcourt much stingier. Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker are two strong defenders, and the duo along with Lucas Nogueira and Patrick Patterson have the four best defensive ratings on the team – all below 105 points per 100 possessions, nearly two points better than league average. Additionally, Porter scored fewer than 22 fantasy points in two of his first three games back since the All-Star break.
CENTERS
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs PHI ($37): Whiteside is playing excellently right now, and he's about to face one of the easiest opponents in the league. With Joel Embiid (knee) on the sideline and Nerlens Noel traded to the Mavericks, the 76ers must rely on Jahlil Okafor at center. Okafor is a terrible defender, and he is smaller than Whiteside, who should have no difficulty muscling Okafor out of the way for points and rebounds. Over his last two games, Whiteside is averaging 20.5 points and 18.0 rebounds.
Willie Cauley-Stein, SAC vs. BKN ($14): Cauley-Stein is seeing a huge boost in minutes now that DeMarcus Cousins has been traded to the Pelicans, averaging 32.3 minutes per game in his three appearances since the trade. In the 16 games before that, he was averaging only 17.4 minutes per outing. In light of the quick promotion, it makes sense that there would be some inconsistency, such as his two-point, two-rebound stinker against the Hornets. But in the other two games, Cauley-Stein averaged 21.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.0 blocks, which would be a tremendous profit at this salary.
Other suggestions: DeAndre Jordan, LAC vs. HOU ($25); Nerlens Noel, DAL at ATL ($16)
Center to Avoid
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at UTA ($49): Towns is on a roll since the All-star Break, averaging 30.7 points and 19.0 rebounds per game in three starts. However, his opponents in those three games have been, well, unimpressive: Dirk Nowitzki/Nerlens Noel's first game as a Maverick, Clint Capela, and Kosta Koufos/Willie Cauley-Stein. Wednesday, Towns faces off against arguably the best defensive center in the league in Rudy Gobert. He will have a hard time continuing that incredible scoring and rebounding pace against Gobert. Additionally, Towns needs a massive performance because his price is so high that he did not even profit in all three of those games.
