This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Opening night is probably my favorite time to play daily fantasy – and for most teams, Wednesday is opening night. Recent performance is a solid way to predict future performance, and on opening night, there have been no recent performances. As result, player pricing is at its most inefficient.
Opening night is also a great opportunity for traditional fantasy gamers to dip their toes into the daily game. Due to the pricing inefficiencies, most of the players below are players already identified as "sleepers" in most traditional formats; similarly, most of the players I'm avoiding are players who traditional leagues drafted too highly.
GUARD
Tim Frazier, NOP vs. DEN ($13): Frazier, the starting point for the Hornets, averaged 9.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 8.9 assists per 36 minutes during the preseason. His price might double in the next week or so.
Ty Lawson, SAC at PHO ($15): Lawson is expected to play 30-40 minutes per night while Darren Collison serves an eight-game suspension. With that quantity of minutes, he should have no difficulty returning a profit on this paltry salary. His career overall may be in decline, but he still averaged 9.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.4 steals per 36 minutes last season.
Other suggestions: Ish Smith, DET at TOR ($24); Evan Fournier, ORL vs MIA ($20); Matthew Dellavedova, MIL vs. CHA ($11); Brandon Rush, MIN at MEM ($10)
Guard to Avoid
Jeremy Lin, BKN at BOS ($21): I like Lin as a fantasy prospect and think he will have a great season. And most nights, this price would look like a good deal. But the Celtics' backcourt is one of the stingiest in the league against point guards, and with all of the bargains available, daily gamers will probably need more points than usual to win.
FORWARD
Dirk Nowitzki, DAL at IND ($28): The rumors of Nowitzki's demise have been greatly exaggerated. While the fantasy community seems ready to push Nowitzki into his grave, he was statistically better last season than the one prior, and very similar to his 2012-13 season. Nowitzki averages at least 17 points, six rebounds and roughly three combined assists-steals-blocks as a matter of basic principle. The Pacers are looking to push the pace this year, which should lead to extra possessions.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN at BOS ($12): The Celtics' defense against small forwards was significantly less imposing last season, as they were in the bottom third against the position in fantasy points allowed per game. Hollis-Jefferson's backups are Bojan Bogdanovic, who should see more minutes at shooting guard, and Anthony Bennett, who has never come close to reaching the levels expected of him when he was selected first overall in 2013. Hollis-Jefferson should play tons of minutes, which combined with the favorable opponent and cheap price, should be enough for daily purposes.
Other suggestions: T.J. Warren, PHO vs. SAC ($13); Dario Saric, PHI vs. OKC ($13); Mirza Teletovic, MIL vs. CHA ($15); Ryan Anderson, HOU at LAL ($25)
Forward to Avoid
Zach Randolph, MEM vs. MIN ($26): Randolph's salary, like that of all veterans, is heavily influence by his past production. But he is changing roles this season and will now be coming off the bench. While he should still see significant minutes, it is hard to imagine him nearing the 30 minutes per game he played last season. His price, meanwhile, seems to reflect his old role.
CENTER
Karl-Anthony Towns, MIN at MEM ($45): Over the second half of last season, Towns was a top-10 fantasy performer. This is the price of a top-20 player. While Marc Gasol is not a favorable matchup for most centers, Towns has the quickness and range to keep Gasol off balance all night. After Gasol, none of the Grizzlies' bigs pose any serious challenge to Towns.
Clint Capela, HOU at LAL($10): Frankly, this price seems like a glitch. Capela is healthy and starting for the Rockets. He averaged 13.3 points and 12.1 rebounds per 36 minutes last season, and he is an efficient shot blocker. The reason his price is so low is because he played very few minutes, especially late last season. But that's not your problem. Now Dwight Howard is gone and Capela seems in line for at least 30 minutes per game.
Other suggestions: Nikola Jokic, DEN at NOP ($23)
Center to Avoid
Nikola Vucevic, ORL vs MIA ($35): The Magic big man log-jam should be avoided, especially early in the season. This recipe features too many players, too few minutes, a brand new coach and a complete lack of clarity. On top of it all, $35 is roughly on the high end of what I'd be willing to pay for Vucevic when he seems guaranteed to play 30-to-35 minutes. Overpaying and an uncertain workload are chapters one and two in a book on how to lose in daily fantasy.
