This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Basketball series.
Digging for DFS gold at the end of the NBA regular season presents some unique challenges that aren't for the faint of heart. There's a lot of movement with teams out of the playoff hunt, and if you haven't been playing recently, some of the names you'll see in this article will be head-scratchers, to be certain!
As you look at Yahoo's featured nine-game slate, you need to place the majority of your focus on teams that have something to play for. This means that the Pelicans and Nuggets should be at the forefront of your mind as you construct your lineup, and the Trail Blazers, Cavs, Bucks, Wizards, Spurs, T-Wolves and the Thunder all warrant attention as they try to secure the highest possible seeds. With everyone else, it's wise to avoid veterans and focus on younger talent, as most of the eliminated teams are going to give youngsters more time to see what they've got to work with going into next season. Some of those players have emerged as obvious targets in recent days.
First, let's look at our elite $50-plus players to see if there's any profit in spending up Monday. There's a lot of value to be had further down the salary list, so you should be able to afford one of these players.
The Cavs seem destined to land in the fourth spot in the East, but I doubt that will slow LeBron James ($58) down. Historically LeBron has never sat at season's end, so it would be surprising to see his minutes capped against the Knicks, although if the game gets out of hand he may hit the bench. The way the Cavs are playing currently, I don't see a blowout happening. If you're looking for guaranteed production, Anthony Davis ($58) hits the sweet spot in terms of motivation as they try to fend off the Nuggets for the final playoff spot. They'll be facing a demoralized Clippers team that has now narrowly missed the playoffs and it's anyone's guess as to how LA will look in this one, but things look promising for New Orleans. Russell Westbrook ($55) also can't be ignored against the Heat and in some respects, I like him a little better than Davis due to Westbrook's triple-double potential, a mark he's been flirting with over the past few games. Giannis Antetokounmpo is almost certainly going to be out, as the Bucks have a spot locked up and risking Giannis for a higher seed is outweighed by playing it safe with their meal ticket.
I'll now highlight two players at each position, and at each spot I'll be giving you one of the low-cost, high-value selections that should see more time at season's end. We'll also select one player to avoid at each position.
GUARD
Jrue Holiday, NO at LAC ($37): I really don't see how you avoid Holiday in most of your lineups, as he checks every box on the list of requirements for success on this slate. The Pelicans are likely safe but they can't afford a misstep this late in the season. In the last week, he's averaged 20.7 points and 7.3 assists per game, and he went off against the Clippers in their two most recent matchups.
Luke Kennard, DET vs. TOR ($10): The Raptors are going to sit a few starters tonight, and with Reggie Bullock out, Kennard will probably draw the start again and see 30 minutes. He put up 34 YFP in 32 minutes against the Grizzlies and with at least one backcourt player sitting for Toronto, the difference in defensive mettle won't be that disparate.
Other guards to consider: Jamal Murray, DEN vs. POR ($27); MarShon Brooks, MEM at MIN ($18); Sean Kilpatrick, CHI at BKN ($11)
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GUARD TO AVOID
Kyle Lowry, TOR at DET ($29): We've yet to get word on who Toronto will sit Monday, but since DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valancuinas already had a turn, I have a hunch that Lowry and possibly Serge Ibaka could take a breather next. Even if Lowry plays I wouldn't expect a ton of minutes.
FORWARD
Khris Middleton, MIL vs. ORL ($36): While you should also give a thought to rostering Jabari Parker ($22) with Giannis out, Middleton actually sees the highest bump in usage rate and production in Antetokounmpo's absence with a 6.6 percent usage increase and about eight more points per game. These stats are taking the entire season into account, so Parker's absence for most of those games should be considered, and I actually think the two players would be a worthwhile stack.
Ivan Rabb, MEM at MIN ($14): Rabb should take over for JaMychal Green at the four and has been the second-most popular Memphis bargain bin pick next to MarShon Brooks in recent days. His 28.4 YFP average over the last three games is excellent value for the price.
Other forwards to consider: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN vs. CHI ($27); Nikola Mirotic, NO at LAC ($23); Evan Turner, POR at DEN ($11)
FORWARD TO AVOID
Tobias Harris, LAC vs. NO ($28): I really can't start any Clipper with confidence Monday, as their morale is in the cellar after missing the playoffs. I doubt they lack the mettle to play spoiler, and Harris' stat line is among the most volatile on the team.
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CENTER
LaMarcus Aldridge, SA at SAC ($41): You just never know what Gregg Popovich will do, so I am OK paying up for Karl-Anthony Towns ($45) instead if Aldridge sits. LMA is the heart of the Spurs offense and his recent stat lines have been ridiculous. The Spurs' slow pace is always a worry, but I don't think it will matter much against the Kings.
Kyle O'Quinn, NY vs. CLE ($27): I'll caution right away that O'Quinn Is likely to be highly owned so he may not be the best tournament play, but he's a solid cash value as New York's only truly viable center. Enes Kanter may be done for the season, so O'Quinn is a safe ride into the season's close.
Other centers to consider: Kevin Love, CLE at NY ($26); John Henson, MIL vs. ORL ($15); Cristiano Felicio, CHI at BKN ($10)
CENTER TO AVOID
Hassan Whiteside, MIA vs. OKC ($28): While there's been no official announcement that the Heat are capping Whiteside's minutes, he's only been seeing about 20 minutes in the past few games and due to recent injuries, it makes sense that Miami would be a bit cautious with their big man. I think you can find less risk at a lower price Monday.
