This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
A quick reminder regarding how to use this article: the team analyses at the top are a general guide to get you started – use them as a tiebreaker between two players or as a way to begin thinking about building your team. The recommendations at the bottom highlight specific players who I expect to outperform their salaries. If a player recommendation appears to conflict with advice from the team analyses, the player recommendation takes precedence.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets:
Since last season's trade deadline, what team boasts the best per possession defense in the NBA? The Utah Jazz, and it isn't even close. After Rudy Gobert entered the starting lineup, the Jazz allowed five percent fewer points per possession than the second best defenses – that's the same margin separating the second place Bucks and Grizzlies (tied) from the 19th-place Pistons. Though this season is still young, the Jazz have maintained their stranglehold on the "league's best defense" title. Not only is their defense elite, but it is also slow, as they operate at the league's slowest pace.
Offenses to Use
Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls:
The Thunder are hot and the Bulls look lost. The Thunder have scored over 100 points in every game this season, and are only behind the Warriors in points per possession. The Bulls rank in the bottom half of the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Bulls haven't looked good since opening night, going 2-2 against Eastern Conference non-contenders, including a blowout loss Tuesday against a Hornets squad that entered the game winless. The only factor working in the Bulls' favor is that the Thunder are playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, and their fourth game in five nights.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game: Denver Nuggets, Miami Heat
Second game: Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, Utah Jazz
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook at CHI ($10,400): Sometimes the easiest answer doubles as the best answer. Westbrook did daily players a favor by taking a night off and "only" racking up 42.75 fantasy points last weekend – that game is the only reason his price hasn't risen higher. In his other three outings he has totaled 55, 76.75 and 55 fantasy points. Each of those totals would rate as a profit at this price point. Additionally, Thursday marks the Thunder's fourth game in five days, which could cause them to err on the side of caution by limiting Kevin Durant's minutes and relying more heavily on the nearly indestructible Westbrook.
Other suggestions: C.J. McCollum vs. MEM ($6,500); Jeremy Lin at DAL ($4,500); J.J. Barea vs. CHA ($3,600)
Shooting Guard
Dion Waiters at CHI ($3,300): As a fan of the good basketball, I enjoy writing about Waiters as much as you enjoy watching him. But few players have a salary this low yet play such reliably large amounts of minutes. It doesn't take a lot of per-minute production for Waiters to profit when he's playing more than 25 minutes per game but costs close to the salary minimum.
Other suggestions: Jimmy Butler vs. OKC ($7,700); Tyler Johnson at MIN ($3,000)
Small Forward
Danilo Gallinari vs. UTA ($6,300): Will Gallinari's shots fall Thursday? A healthy Gallinari has long been one of fantasy's most under-appreciated assets. So far this season, however, Gallinari's biggest obstacle has been his shooting, not his health. In the two games when his shot failed him, he rated as a harmful bust for daily gamers. But in his other two games he shot a combined 13 for 27 (48 percent) and averaged 43.3 fantasy points per game.
Other suggestions: Al-Farouq Aminu vs. MEM ($5,600); Matt Barnes at POR ($3,700)
Power Forward
Marvin Williams at DAL ($5,000): Are you like me in thinking of Williams as some past-his-prime veteran shockingly extending his career long past its natural end? I know I'm not the only one. In actuality, however, Williams is only 29 and his continued relevance in this league should come as no surprise. He is exactly the kind of stretch-4 craved by so many NBA front offices. He's averaging just shy of 33 minutes and a double-double per game. His salary is already rising, but it is still low enough to qualify as a discount.
Other suggestions: Serge Ibaka at CHI ($6,500): Brandan Wright* at POR ($3,000)
* Assuming Marc Gasol (neck) sits Thursday.
Center
Rudy Gobert at DEN ($7,000): Center is really, really thin Thursday. According to my metrics, not a single player rates as a semi-reliable discount. Gobert isn't a great play, he's just better than the other options available. In daily games, it's safer to target players whose value comes from the more consistent categories, i.e. points and rebounds. While Gobert specializes in rebounds, a lot of his daily value comes from his ability to block shots, which can vary greatly from night to night. Thursday gamers who want to believe in Gobert can find solace in the fact that the Nuggets are getting blocked at the fifth highest rate in the league.
Other suggestions: Hassan Whiteside at MIN ($7,400); Spencer Hawes at DAL ($3,200)
INJURY REPORT
Out
Mike Dunleavy, F, CHI (back)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, F, CHA (shoulder)
JaVale McGee, C, DAL (leg)
Wilson Chandler, F, DEN (hip)
Jusuf Nurkic, C, DEN (knee)
Jarell Martin, F, MEM (foot)
Nikola Pekovic, C, MIN (Achilles)
Cliff Alexander, F, POR (knee)
Gerald Henderson, G, POR (hip)
Game-Time Decision
Kirk Hinrich, G, CHI (toe)
Nikola Jokic, C, DEN (back)
Joffrey Lauvergne, F, DEN (back)
Marc Gasol, C, MEM (neck)
Gerald Green, G, MIA (illness)
Amar'e Stoudemire, F, MIA (knee)
Dwyane Wade, G, MIA (illness)
Kevin Martin, G, MIN (personal)
Meyers Leonard, C, POR (ankle)
Derrick Favors, F, UTA (illness)
