The Prospect Post: Top 50 Under 25

With keeper decisions hanging in the balance in fantasy basketball leagues where there is limited roster turnover from year to year, this seemed like a perfect subject for the first Prospect Post of the 2015-16 season. What follows is the first ever ranking of the top-50 players under 25 for dynasty leagues.

• This list is intended for dynasty league owners only
  
• Only players on NBA rosters who are under 25 years old at the time the article is published will be considered for these rankings.
  
• Current abilities, projected gains in talent, team context, and age were the four main factors in determining these rankings.
  
• This list will be updated twice a year -- once at the All-Star break and once in early October.
  
• These rankings are incredibly subjective.
  
• There are many different keeper league formats, but these specific rankings assume that one can keep each player for eternity at the same price.
  
• Players' ages are in parenthesis.

1. Anthony Davis (22)

Davis is the best player in almost all formats. It will be a bit annoying when the national media anoints him as the best player in the league this year, but that is a fact that dynasty league owners have been anticipating for a couple years.

Tier Two - Potential Superstars:

2. Andrew Wiggins (20)
3. Kyrie Irving (23)
4. D'Angelo Russell (19)
5. Karl-Anthony Towns (19)
6. Kawhi Leonard (24)
7. Rudy Gobert (23)
8. Giannis Antetokounmpo (20)

Of this group, Irving is the only player whose current level of production might represent his prime. Leonard could also be close to maxing out his fantasy production, but there seems to be a strong chance that he sees gradual usage gains on offense over the next five seasons. Antetokounmpo's ranking requires the most projection, but as a 20-year-old with two years of significant NBA playing time under his belt, he is probably the most projectable player on this list. Russell gets the nod over Towns because assists are more scarce than rebounds in fantasy, but I could really be talked into either guy for the No. 4 spot.

Tier Three - Solid Second/Third Options

9. Nikola Vucevic (24)
10. Victor Oladipo (23)
11. Tobias Harris (23)
12. Bradley Beal (22)
13. Derrick Favors (24)
14. Khris Middleton (24)
15. Andre Drummond (22)
16. Jahlil Okafor (19)
17. Nerlens Noel (21)
18. Michael Carter-Williams (23)
19. Enes Kanter (23)
20. Brandon Knight (23)

These players are all somewhat established except for Okafor. There is an interesting mix of toolsy, yet flawed players like Drummond, Noel, Carter-Williams and Kanter along with players with very few flaws and debatable upside like Beal, Favors, Middleton and Knight. Dynasty league owners need players like this on their quest for league titles, but these are also the kinds of players owners have to be willing to move in the right trades, as they don't have that elite upside that could really come back to haunt.

Tier Four - Breakout Candidates

21. Nikola Mirotic (24)
22. Aaron Gordon (19)
23. Julius Randle (20)
24. Zach LaVine (20)
25. Jabari Parker (20)
26. Emmanuel Mudiay (19)
27. Frank Kaminsky (22)
28. Dennis Schroder (21)

I cheated a little here. Parker is not someone who I would label as a breakout candidate, as he will probably be just as good as he was in his rookie season before he got hurt, but this is the tier he belongs in. Mirotic, Gordon, Randle and LaVine each have as much upside as anyone in the third tier, but they have yet to show that they can come close to maximizing that talent over a full season. Kaminsky and Mudiay find themselves in this tier, and not the fifth tier, because they will presumably be stepping into very significant roles as rookies, so the counting stats should be there from day one. Schroder may need to get his own team, a la Reggie Jackson moving on from the Thunder, before he really takes off in fantasy, but the talent is very real.

Tier Five - To Be Determined

29. Terrence Jones (23)
30. Jonas Valanciunas (23)
31. Harrison Barnes (23)
32. Elfrid Payton (21)
33. C.J. McCollum (23)
34. Shabazz Muhammad (22)

Jones, Barnes and Muhammad are players I really like who aren't in ideal situations for them to shine. Jones has the most "now" value of the bunch, but the others have too much potential to be valued according to their 2015-16 fantasy value. Valanciunas, Payton and McCollum will get their opportunities, and while the jury is still out on how good they can be, it seems safe to say they don't have the ceiling to ever crack the top-15 on this list.

Tier Six - I Don't Really Get It

35. Ricky Rubio (24)
36. Otto Porter (22)
37. Marcus Smart (21)
38. Jordan Clarkson (23)
39. Robert Covington (24)
40. Jared Sullinger (23)

I have some explaining to do here. This is as low as I could justify ranking these six players. They are all probably going to be starters this season, but there are a variety of reasons why I would love to trade each player in a dynasty league before the season starts.

Rubio's assists and steals are not being disputed, but he is so mediocre or downright bad in every other aspect that it seems inevitable that he will lose playing time sooner rather than later, and at that point he will be a player who belongs on waivers in many formats. Smart is incorrectly touted by some as a major trade asset on the Celtics, but all he has shown the ability to do is play solid on-ball defense. Given the league-wide talent at point guard, he has a realistic ceiling as a bottom-10 option at the position, and he will probably settle in as a Tony Allen-esque player in the end. Clarkson benefitted from being a competent tweener guard on one of the most talent-bereft lineups in the league in the second half of last season. This year he will have D'Angelo Russell, Kobe Bryant, Lou Williams and Nick Young vying for shots, so Clarkson could be anything from the third to fifth option on the wing.

Similarly, Porter doesn't have enough now opportunities or future potential to get me excited about him in most formats. His upside is a jack-of-all-trades and a master of none, which, as P.J. Tucker has shown us, isn't that exciting for fantasy. Covington is a player who, like Clarkson, benefitted from being semi-competent on a horrible team. Unlike Clarkson, Covington should maintain a major role in the offense this year, but another thing that separates the two is the fact that Clarkson is fairly efficient on offense and should stick around for a while, as at least a rotation player. Covington will likely be phased out once the Sixers start to make major strides in their rebuild and can deploy talent at every position. All it will take for him to lose almost all of his fantasy value will be a change of scenery. Sullinger would be a double-double machine if he played 35 minutes per game, but his lack of a reliable three-point shot and his defensive limitations will prevent him from getting that kind of run. The Celtics have a plethora of bigs with similar abilities as Sullinger, so his ceiling is very limited, both in the short and long terms, unless he is able to make major strides with his shot.

Tier Seven - Patience Required

41. Stanley Johnson (19)
42. Jusuf Nurkic (20)
43. T.J. Warren (21)
44. Kristaps Porzingis (20)
45. Justise Winslow (19)
46. Devin Booker (18)
47. Raul Neto (23)
48. Dante Exum (20)
49. Clint Capela (21)
50. Kyle Anderson (21)

This was a fun tier to put together, as I was able to include some personal favorites, such as Winslow, Booker, Neto, Exum, Anderson and Capela, who all have quite a bit to prove before owners in single-season formats need to take them seriously. In dynasty leagues, however, the time to buy in on these guys is nigh. The Suns' frontcourt rotation is very uncertain with the Markieff Morris situation still in limbo, but Warren could join Johnson and Nurkic as significant contributors if Morris gets dealt. Exum would have been in the fourth tier if he wasn't going to miss the season with a tragic ACL injury. Notice that Neto, and not Trey Burke, is the healthy Jazz point guard on this list. It may seem absurd, but I think his upside is a better shooting version of Ricky Rubio. Capela has very limited NBA experience, but people will know his name soon enough. His rawness is only matched by his upside.

Honorable Mention:

Tristan Thompson (24)
Tony Wroten (22)
Tyus Jones (19)
Willie Cauley-Stein (22)
Trey Burke (22)
Alec Burks (24)
Mario Hezonja (20)
K.J. McDaniels (22)
John Henson (24)
Steven Adams (22)
Joel Embiid (21)
Alex Len (22)
Ben McLemore (22)
Rodney Hood (22)
Trey Lyles (19)