This article is part of our Hoops Lab series.
This year's rookie class shapes up to be intriguing because of the mix of upside vs. ready-to-contribute players. The first two draft picks of Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram were locked in and given the best chance to both contribute early and possibly develop into superstars. After them, though, you had several upside picks (e.g. No. 3 Jaylen Brown, No. 4 Dragan Bender and No. 8 Marquese Chriss) surrounding several contribute-now picks (e.g. No. 5 Kris Dunn, No. 6 Buddy Hield and No. 7 Jamal Murray). Thus, some of the highest lottery picks have little fantasy expectations this season while some of the mid-lottery guys could conceivably vie for Rookie of the Year.
I spent some extra time scouting the Vegas Summer League this year and saw many of these rookies in person. My notes can be found as follows:
•Day 4 of Vegas Summer League
•Day 6 of Vegas Summer League
•Day 7 of Vegas Summer League
•Wrap-up of Vegas Summer League
Now that the summer leagues are over, it seems like the perfect time to give a state-of-the-rookies address for the entire lottery from a fantasy perspective.
Ben Simmons, 76ers
• Thumbnail scouting: Big forward size, point guard abilities, excellent athleticism, excellent rebounder, solid defense, weak jump shot, sky-high potential
• NBADraft.net comp:LeBron James/Lamar Odom
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Utah, Vegas): 10.8 ppg (32% FG, 64% FT), 7.7 rpg, 5.5 apg, 3.8 TO, 1.1 spg, 0.5 bpg
• Team role: Simmons is expected to be the savior, the future of the franchise and is likely to start from Day 1. While he is a natural forward, his court vision and passing ability seem likely to land him as the starting point guard for the 76ers at some point this season.
• Estimated output: 15.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.5 bpg
Brandon Ingram, Lakers
• Thumbnail scouting: Long, lanky, very thin forward with solid athleticism, good agility, an excellent jumper, solid defense, solid ball-handling and passing, high potential
• NBADraft.net comp:Kevin Durant/Tayshaun Prince
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 12.2 ppg (41.2% FG, 71.4% FT), 4.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.6 TO, 0.6 spg, 0.4 bpg
• Team role: Ingram will join last year's No. 2 overall pick D'Angelo Russell as the centerpieces to begin the post-Kobe-Bryant era. While Ingram clearly needs to fill out and get stronger, he is expected to get major minutes from day 1.
• Estimated output: 15.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
• Thumbnail scouting: Wing with excellent size, strength and athleticism; great quickness, good first step and two-dribble drives, good defender, weaker ball-handler, solid jumper, high potential.
• NBADraft.net comp:Jimmy Butler/Jason Richardson
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas, Utah): 16.0 ppg (30.7% FG, 68.7% FT), 6.2 rpg, 1.3 apg, 2.2 TO, 2.3 spg, 0.8 bpg
• Team role: Brown has outstanding physical tools, but he's clearly still learning the game. Meanwhile, the Celtics have a deep, young roster with proven talent ahead of him on the depth charts. He may be a rotation player, but likely not enough for major fantasy production.
• Estimated output: 7.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.6 bpg
Dragan Bender, Suns
• Thumbnail scouting: Tall power forward who moves like a shooting guard, great jump shot, average vertical athleticism, great lateral quickness, questionable strength, solid rebounder
• NBADraft.net comp: Hedo Turkoglu
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 8.6 ppg (27.5% FG, 26.5% FT, 50% FT), 5.6 rpg, 1.0 apg, 3.8 TO, 1.0 spg, 1.0 bpg
• Team role: Bender was fun to watch in Vegas because he projects as a PF/C but plays more like a wing. But that won't serve him well out the gate in the NBA, where he's seen as more of a project without a definite position.
• Estimated output: 5.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.6 3-ptirs, 0.7 bpg
Kris Dunn, Timberwolves
• Thumbnail scouting: Combo guard with excellent size, great vertical and lateral athleticism, excellent defense, highlight-worthy ball-handling, point guard level passing, a weaker jump shot, very NBA ready
• NBADraft.net comp: Davin Harris/Jordan Clarkson (possible Dwyane Wade?)
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): (2 games) 24.0 ppg (54.3% FG, 16.7% 3-ptr, 60% FT), 7.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 3.0 TO, 2.0 spg, 1.0 bpg
• Team role: Dunn was seen as arguably the most NBA ready player drafted this year, then he went on to electrify the Vegas League in his first two outings. He'll be competing with Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine for playing time, but he looks too good not to nab at least a sixth-man role.
• Estimated output: 13.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.9 3ptrs
Buddy Hield, Pelicans
• Thumbnail scouting: Pure shooting guard with outstanding shooting stroke, reasonable ball handling, questionable athletic ability, questionable passing, pure scorer, NBA ready
• NBADraft.net comp: Brandon Roy/Dell Curry
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 16.8 ppg (32.7% FG, 22.9% 3-ptrs, 90% FT), 5.4 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.8 TO, 0.8 spg, 0.2 bpg
• Team role: Out of the draft, I saw Hield as having a great chance to lead all rookies in scoring this year. He's a mature dead-eye shooter who should get major run playing off Anthony Davis. His struggles in Vegas were worrisome, especially as they pertained to his inability to get separation, but he'll have every opportunity to produce and likely finds his level eventually.
• Estimated output: 15.4 ppg, 1.8 3-ptrs, 3.4 rpg, 2.1 apg
Jamal Murray, Nuggets
• Thumbnail scouting: Big combo guard, natural scorer, questionable quickness, decent vertical leaper, solid defender, reasonable ball-handler, excellent jump-shooter.
• NBADraft.net comp:Ben Gordon
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 19.6 ppg (42.5% FG, 27.6% 3-ptr, 88.9% FT), 5.0 rpg, 2.4 apg, 2.8 TO, 0.8 spg, 0.4 bpg
• Team role: The Nuggets have good young guards in Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris and Will Barton. But Murray brings an element of pure shooting that the Nuggets need, which likely gets him at least sixth-man minutes in the rotation.
• Estimated output: 12.7 ppg, 1.4 3-ptrs, 3.8 rpg, 2.9 apg
Marquese Chriss, Suns
• Thumbnail scouting: Power forward with excellent size, excellent quickness and athleticism, big upside as a 1-and-done, solid shooter, questionable defense, OK rebounder
• NBADraft.net comp:Tyrus Thomas/Antonio McDyess
•• Summer league averages (Vegas): 10.0 ppg (33.3% FG, 57.1% FT), 9.0 rpg, 0.3 apg, 3.3 TO, 0.3 spg, 0.7 bpg
• Team role: Chriss is a freak athlete, but he's also a big of a project. That said, he may still get close to starters minutes on a Suns team that wants to develop him as part of their young core and is strong at center (Alex Len, Tyson Chandler) but not so much at power forward.
• Estimated output: 8.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 0.8 bpg
Jakob Poeltl, Raptors
• Thumbnail scouting: Big center, good size, solid athlete, solid jump shooter, solid rebounder, good post skills, solid defense
• NBADraft.net comp:Andrew Bogut
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 6.8 ppg (66.7% FG, 66.7% FT), 7.0 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.2 TO, 1.0 spg, 2.0 bpg
• Team role: Poeltl is a strong scorer and rebounder, but as a true center he can't really play at the same time as Raptors starter Jonas Valanciunas. Thus, he'll instead be trying to fill the departed Bismack Biyombo's role as reserve center and spot-starter when Valanciunas is out.
• Estimated output: 7.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.2 bpg
Thon Maker, Bucks
• Thumbnail scouting: Tall power forward/center, outstanding size, good athletic ability, good quickness, OK defender, OK rebounder, solid jump shot, very high upside if truly 19-years old.
• NBADraft.net comp:Chris McCullough
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 14.2 ppg (37.7% FG, 31.6% 3-ptr, 79.2% FT), 9.6 rpg, 1.8 TO, 0.8 spg, 1.0 bpg
• Team role: One of the more intriguing players I saw in Vegas, Maker seems to have the skills to contribute. But he's also seen as a bit of a project, and the Bucks have some talented depth on their frontline, so don't expect fantasy-worthy numbers from him this season.
• Estimated output: 6.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.6 spg
Domantas Sabonis, Thunder
• Thumbnail scouting: Power forward/center with adequate size, great post skills, great rebounding, a solid jumper, questionable quickness and athleticism, solid defense
• NBADraft.net comp:Luis Scola/Marc Gasol
• Summer exploits: DNP at Summer League, will play on Lithuania's Olympic team
• Team role: He was traded to the Thunder, who already sport the Steven Adams/Enes Kanter frontcourt combo that was the talk of last year's playoffs. Sabonis, therefore, projects to come off the bench, trying to find a consistent role in the rotation.
• Estimated output: 5.6 ppg, 5.0 reb, 1.6 apg, 0.7 bpg
Taurean Prince, Hawks
• Thumbnail scouting: Small forward with excellent size, solid athleticism, good defene, a questionable jumper, weak ball-handling and passing, NBA ready
• NBADraft.net comp:DeMarre Carroll
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 13.7 ppg (37.5% FG, 25% 3-ptr, 93.8% FT), 6.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, 3.3 TO, 3.0 spg, 0.7 bpg
• Team role: Would likely have been in for a larger role if Kent Bazemore would have left as a free agent. As is, he likely comes off the bench and tries to fill the same role as Bazemore as a 3-and-D utility wing.
• Estimated output: 6.8 points, 4.1 reb, 1.2 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.4 bpg
Georgios Papagiannis, Kings
• Thumbnail scouting: Huge center with excellent size, solid athleticism, solid rebounding, solid post skills, not much quickness, reasonable agility, OK defender, not much jump shot, a bit of a project
• NBADraft.net comp: Primoz Brezec
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 5.2 ppg (35.7% FG, 50% FT), 4.8 rpg, 2.8 TO, 0.5 spg, 20.5 mpg
• Team role: The Kings are full of talented bigs, including superstar DeMarcus Cousins and last year's lottery pick Willie Cauley-Stein. Papagiannis projects as more of a project, anyway, not someone likely to contribute right away.
• Estimated output: 3.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.5 bpg
Denzel Valentine, Bulls
• Thumbnail scouting: Combo guard with good size, great passing, excellent leadership, a good jumper, weak athleticism and quickness, NBA ready but questionable upside.
• NBADraft.net comp:Danny Green/Greivis Vasquez
•• Summer league averages (Vegas): 11.6 ppg (35.2% FG, 77.8% FT), 6.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.0 TO, 1.6 spg
• Team role: The Bulls have revamped their backcourt, adding Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade to Jimmy Butler. Thus, there isn't room for Valentine to be any more than a sub. He's NBA ready enough to play now, but his minutes will be limited.
• Estimated output: 7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 0.6 spg
This year's rookie class shapes up to be intriguing because of the mix of upside vs. ready-to-contribute players. The first two draft picks of Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram were locked in and given the best chance to both contribute early and possibly develop into superstars. After them, though, you had several upside picks (e.g. No. 3 Jaylen Brown, No. 4 Dragan Bender and No. 8 Marquese Chriss) surrounding several contribute-now picks (e.g. No. 5 Kris Dunn, No. 6 Buddy Hield and No. 7 Jamal Murray). Thus, some of the highest lottery picks have little fantasy expectations this season while some of the mid-lottery guys could conceivably vie for Rookie of the Year.
I spent some extra time scouting the Vegas Summer League this year and saw many of these rookies in person. My notes can be found as follows:
•Day 4 of Vegas Summer League
•Day 6 of Vegas Summer League
•Day 7 of Vegas Summer League
•Wrap-up of Vegas Summer League
Now that the summer leagues are over, it seems like the perfect time to give a state-of-the-rookies address for the entire lottery from a fantasy perspective.
Ben Simmons, 76ers
• Thumbnail scouting: Big forward size, point guard abilities, excellent athleticism, excellent rebounder, solid defense, weak jump shot, sky-high potential
• NBADraft.net comp:LeBron James/Lamar Odom
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Utah, Vegas): 10.8 ppg (32% FG, 64% FT), 7.7 rpg, 5.5 apg, 3.8 TO, 1.1 spg, 0.5 bpg
• Team role: Simmons is expected to be the savior, the future of the franchise and is likely to start from Day 1. While he is a natural forward, his court vision and passing ability seem likely to land him as the starting point guard for the 76ers at some point this season.
• Estimated output: 15.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 5.8 apg, 1.2 spg, 0.5 bpg
Brandon Ingram, Lakers
• Thumbnail scouting: Long, lanky, very thin forward with solid athleticism, good agility, an excellent jumper, solid defense, solid ball-handling and passing, high potential
• NBADraft.net comp:Kevin Durant/Tayshaun Prince
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 12.2 ppg (41.2% FG, 71.4% FT), 4.2 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.6 TO, 0.6 spg, 0.4 bpg
• Team role: Ingram will join last year's No. 2 overall pick D'Angelo Russell as the centerpieces to begin the post-Kobe-Bryant era. While Ingram clearly needs to fill out and get stronger, he is expected to get major minutes from day 1.
• Estimated output: 15.4 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 0.8 spg, 0.6 bpg
Jaylen Brown, Celtics
• Thumbnail scouting: Wing with excellent size, strength and athleticism; great quickness, good first step and two-dribble drives, good defender, weaker ball-handler, solid jumper, high potential.
• NBADraft.net comp:Jimmy Butler/Jason Richardson
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas, Utah): 16.0 ppg (30.7% FG, 68.7% FT), 6.2 rpg, 1.3 apg, 2.2 TO, 2.3 spg, 0.8 bpg
• Team role: Brown has outstanding physical tools, but he's clearly still learning the game. Meanwhile, the Celtics have a deep, young roster with proven talent ahead of him on the depth charts. He may be a rotation player, but likely not enough for major fantasy production.
• Estimated output: 7.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 1.1 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.6 bpg
Dragan Bender, Suns
• Thumbnail scouting: Tall power forward who moves like a shooting guard, great jump shot, average vertical athleticism, great lateral quickness, questionable strength, solid rebounder
• NBADraft.net comp: Hedo Turkoglu
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 8.6 ppg (27.5% FG, 26.5% FT, 50% FT), 5.6 rpg, 1.0 apg, 3.8 TO, 1.0 spg, 1.0 bpg
• Team role: Bender was fun to watch in Vegas because he projects as a PF/C but plays more like a wing. But that won't serve him well out the gate in the NBA, where he's seen as more of a project without a definite position.
• Estimated output: 5.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 0.6 3-ptirs, 0.7 bpg
Kris Dunn, Timberwolves
• Thumbnail scouting: Combo guard with excellent size, great vertical and lateral athleticism, excellent defense, highlight-worthy ball-handling, point guard level passing, a weaker jump shot, very NBA ready
• NBADraft.net comp: Davin Harris/Jordan Clarkson (possible Dwyane Wade?)
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): (2 games) 24.0 ppg (54.3% FG, 16.7% 3-ptr, 60% FT), 7.0 rpg, 3.0 apg, 3.0 TO, 2.0 spg, 1.0 bpg
• Team role: Dunn was seen as arguably the most NBA ready player drafted this year, then he went on to electrify the Vegas League in his first two outings. He'll be competing with Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine for playing time, but he looks too good not to nab at least a sixth-man role.
• Estimated output: 13.8 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.3 spg, 0.9 3ptrs
Buddy Hield, Pelicans
• Thumbnail scouting: Pure shooting guard with outstanding shooting stroke, reasonable ball handling, questionable athletic ability, questionable passing, pure scorer, NBA ready
• NBADraft.net comp: Brandon Roy/Dell Curry
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 16.8 ppg (32.7% FG, 22.9% 3-ptrs, 90% FT), 5.4 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.8 TO, 0.8 spg, 0.2 bpg
• Team role: Out of the draft, I saw Hield as having a great chance to lead all rookies in scoring this year. He's a mature dead-eye shooter who should get major run playing off Anthony Davis. His struggles in Vegas were worrisome, especially as they pertained to his inability to get separation, but he'll have every opportunity to produce and likely finds his level eventually.
• Estimated output: 15.4 ppg, 1.8 3-ptrs, 3.4 rpg, 2.1 apg
Jamal Murray, Nuggets
• Thumbnail scouting: Big combo guard, natural scorer, questionable quickness, decent vertical leaper, solid defender, reasonable ball-handler, excellent jump-shooter.
• NBADraft.net comp:Ben Gordon
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 19.6 ppg (42.5% FG, 27.6% 3-ptr, 88.9% FT), 5.0 rpg, 2.4 apg, 2.8 TO, 0.8 spg, 0.4 bpg
• Team role: The Nuggets have good young guards in Emmanuel Mudiay, Gary Harris and Will Barton. But Murray brings an element of pure shooting that the Nuggets need, which likely gets him at least sixth-man minutes in the rotation.
• Estimated output: 12.7 ppg, 1.4 3-ptrs, 3.8 rpg, 2.9 apg
Marquese Chriss, Suns
• Thumbnail scouting: Power forward with excellent size, excellent quickness and athleticism, big upside as a 1-and-done, solid shooter, questionable defense, OK rebounder
• NBADraft.net comp:Tyrus Thomas/Antonio McDyess
•• Summer league averages (Vegas): 10.0 ppg (33.3% FG, 57.1% FT), 9.0 rpg, 0.3 apg, 3.3 TO, 0.3 spg, 0.7 bpg
• Team role: Chriss is a freak athlete, but he's also a big of a project. That said, he may still get close to starters minutes on a Suns team that wants to develop him as part of their young core and is strong at center (Alex Len, Tyson Chandler) but not so much at power forward.
• Estimated output: 8.6 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 0.8 bpg
Jakob Poeltl, Raptors
• Thumbnail scouting: Big center, good size, solid athlete, solid jump shooter, solid rebounder, good post skills, solid defense
• NBADraft.net comp:Andrew Bogut
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 6.8 ppg (66.7% FG, 66.7% FT), 7.0 rpg, 1.0 apg, 1.2 TO, 1.0 spg, 2.0 bpg
• Team role: Poeltl is a strong scorer and rebounder, but as a true center he can't really play at the same time as Raptors starter Jonas Valanciunas. Thus, he'll instead be trying to fill the departed Bismack Biyombo's role as reserve center and spot-starter when Valanciunas is out.
• Estimated output: 7.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.2 bpg
Thon Maker, Bucks
• Thumbnail scouting: Tall power forward/center, outstanding size, good athletic ability, good quickness, OK defender, OK rebounder, solid jump shot, very high upside if truly 19-years old.
• NBADraft.net comp:Chris McCullough
• Summer exploits:Vegas Summer League write-up
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 14.2 ppg (37.7% FG, 31.6% 3-ptr, 79.2% FT), 9.6 rpg, 1.8 TO, 0.8 spg, 1.0 bpg
• Team role: One of the more intriguing players I saw in Vegas, Maker seems to have the skills to contribute. But he's also seen as a bit of a project, and the Bucks have some talented depth on their frontline, so don't expect fantasy-worthy numbers from him this season.
• Estimated output: 6.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.8 bpg, 0.6 spg
Domantas Sabonis, Thunder
• Thumbnail scouting: Power forward/center with adequate size, great post skills, great rebounding, a solid jumper, questionable quickness and athleticism, solid defense
• NBADraft.net comp:Luis Scola/Marc Gasol
• Summer exploits: DNP at Summer League, will play on Lithuania's Olympic team
• Team role: He was traded to the Thunder, who already sport the Steven Adams/Enes Kanter frontcourt combo that was the talk of last year's playoffs. Sabonis, therefore, projects to come off the bench, trying to find a consistent role in the rotation.
• Estimated output: 5.6 ppg, 5.0 reb, 1.6 apg, 0.7 bpg
Taurean Prince, Hawks
• Thumbnail scouting: Small forward with excellent size, solid athleticism, good defene, a questionable jumper, weak ball-handling and passing, NBA ready
• NBADraft.net comp:DeMarre Carroll
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 13.7 ppg (37.5% FG, 25% 3-ptr, 93.8% FT), 6.0 rpg, 1.7 apg, 3.3 TO, 3.0 spg, 0.7 bpg
• Team role: Would likely have been in for a larger role if Kent Bazemore would have left as a free agent. As is, he likely comes off the bench and tries to fill the same role as Bazemore as a 3-and-D utility wing.
• Estimated output: 6.8 points, 4.1 reb, 1.2 apg, 1.1 spg, 0.4 bpg
Georgios Papagiannis, Kings
• Thumbnail scouting: Huge center with excellent size, solid athleticism, solid rebounding, solid post skills, not much quickness, reasonable agility, OK defender, not much jump shot, a bit of a project
• NBADraft.net comp: Primoz Brezec
• Summer league averages (Vegas): 5.2 ppg (35.7% FG, 50% FT), 4.8 rpg, 2.8 TO, 0.5 spg, 20.5 mpg
• Team role: The Kings are full of talented bigs, including superstar DeMarcus Cousins and last year's lottery pick Willie Cauley-Stein. Papagiannis projects as more of a project, anyway, not someone likely to contribute right away.
• Estimated output: 3.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.5 bpg
Denzel Valentine, Bulls
• Thumbnail scouting: Combo guard with good size, great passing, excellent leadership, a good jumper, weak athleticism and quickness, NBA ready but questionable upside.
• NBADraft.net comp:Danny Green/Greivis Vasquez
•• Summer league averages (Vegas): 11.6 ppg (35.2% FG, 77.8% FT), 6.7 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.0 TO, 1.6 spg
• Team role: The Bulls have revamped their backcourt, adding Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade to Jimmy Butler. Thus, there isn't room for Valentine to be any more than a sub. He's NBA ready enough to play now, but his minutes will be limited.
• Estimated output: 7 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 0.6 spg
