Hoops Lab: Isaiah Thomas, the Little Rotisserie Giant

Hoops Lab: Isaiah Thomas, the Little Rotisserie Giant

This article is part of our Hoops Lab series.

Isaiah Thomas did it again on Wednesday, knocking down big shots to lead the Celtics with 13 fourth-quarter points on his way to another massive rotisserie effort: 38 points (15-of-27 FG, 4-for-4 FT) with nine assists, five rebounds, four treys and a steal in 38 minutes against the Rockets.

This type of line is anything but unusual for the little big man, as he has AVERAGED 32.9 points, 6.6 assists, 3.5 boards, 4.3 treys and 0.6 steals for the month of January. Thomas has been on a statistical incline all season, raising his scoring volume and percentages each month so far:

November: 26.3 points, 41% FG, 2.3 3-pointers
December: 30.3 points, 48.3% FG, 3.0 3-pointers
January: 32.9 points, 49% FG, 4.3 3-pointers

This increase has been clearly reflected in his roto rankings. Back in November, Thomas was ranked 28th in Yahoo's player rater, but as of January 26th, Thomas' Yahoo ranking has shot up to 11th. Over the last month he is ranked fourth on Yahoo. This translates to first round value overall and possibly MVP-level value for a player with an ADP at the end of the third round. Life is good, all around.

The question moving forward is: can he keep it up?

Thomas's previous career-high in scoring came last season, when he averaged 22.2 ppg on 42.8% shooting from the field. His scoring average is up a massive 31% on the season, and his field goal percentage is way up to a career-high-pace of

Isaiah Thomas did it again on Wednesday, knocking down big shots to lead the Celtics with 13 fourth-quarter points on his way to another massive rotisserie effort: 38 points (15-of-27 FG, 4-for-4 FT) with nine assists, five rebounds, four treys and a steal in 38 minutes against the Rockets.

This type of line is anything but unusual for the little big man, as he has AVERAGED 32.9 points, 6.6 assists, 3.5 boards, 4.3 treys and 0.6 steals for the month of January. Thomas has been on a statistical incline all season, raising his scoring volume and percentages each month so far:

November: 26.3 points, 41% FG, 2.3 3-pointers
December: 30.3 points, 48.3% FG, 3.0 3-pointers
January: 32.9 points, 49% FG, 4.3 3-pointers

This increase has been clearly reflected in his roto rankings. Back in November, Thomas was ranked 28th in Yahoo's player rater, but as of January 26th, Thomas' Yahoo ranking has shot up to 11th. Over the last month he is ranked fourth on Yahoo. This translates to first round value overall and possibly MVP-level value for a player with an ADP at the end of the third round. Life is good, all around.

The question moving forward is: can he keep it up?

Thomas's previous career-high in scoring came last season, when he averaged 22.2 ppg on 42.8% shooting from the field. His scoring average is up a massive 31% on the season, and his field goal percentage is way up to a career-high-pace of 46.2%. Thomas is second in the NBA in scoring, just behind Russell Westbrook and ahead of James Harden. How can he possibly keep up this pace, when he's never shown anything like it before? And if he's unlikely to keep that pace up, should Thomas owners be looking to trade him?

I say, not so fast…at least conditionally.

I'm a big proponent of selling high on players, and if you can convince a trading partner that his Steph Curry-like performance in January is his floor value and that he's therefore worth a top-5 pick haul in a trade, then I say pull the trigger.

But, outside of a max deal like that, I have no problem with holding onto Thomas moving forward. For a few reasons:

1. Team role: The Celtics have built a team of solid finishers who don't create all that much on their own. As such, they need Thomas to create as much offense as possible. Barring a trade for another superstar, which they've been trying to do unsuccessfully for years now, Thomas should maintain that role for the rest of the season.

2. Peaking talent: Thomas is 27 years old, right at the point when most players hit their peaks. Plus, he's on a team that has built the offense around his strengths in a way that he's never had before.

3. Lessened defensive responsibility: The Celtics have built a lineup of plus defenders, with first-team All Defense Avery Bradley as Thomas' backcourt mate, strong defenders Marcus Smart and Jae Crowder on the wing, and Al Horford and Amir Johnson in the frontcourt rotation. Thomas has always been a poor defender, which in times past may have been a hindrance to him staying on the court at important times. But with the team built to withstand his weakness on D, and his own big-shot making in the clutch, Thomas has found the ideal situation to allow him to thrive at what he's best at without having to do much heavy lifting where he's weaker. That's resulted in some overall defensive slippage for the Celtics this season, but they're still the third-best team in the East, right where most projected they'd be.

Bottom line: Barring a trade or injury, there's no reason for Thomas not to continue doing what he's doing. He's a veteran player, and even if he's never reached this level before there were seeds to suggest that he had explosive scoring ability. The team needs him to produce, he's in his physical prime, and scoring/offense is essentially his only responsibility. Thomas has exceeded all expectations this season, and all signs suggest a likelihood that he'll continue to do so moving forward.

Around the NBA

Knicks determined to trade Melo?: The Carmelo Anthony trade rumors have been hot and heavy for weeks now, and the latest ratchets it up even further. Melo has a no-trade clause/kicker, but it's been brought to his attention in interviews so often that he seems to be entertaining the thought of waiving it. I advocate for the Knicks trading Melo, but by the same token, it seems that it'd be difficult to find a good situation for him. If he's not going to a team to be the primary scoring option it would hurt his fantasy numbers, but since he'd be trying to go to a contender it seems likely that any team that would acquire him would also have other offensive options already in place. If I owned Melo on a season-long team, I might make like Phil Jackson and start putting out trade feelers myself.

Embiid's restriction and Simmons' impending return: Joel Embiid has missed the last three games with a knee injury but is expected to return on Friday against the Clippers. Even before this dodged bullet, though, the 76ers had already announced that they were going to keep Embiid's 28-minute restriction in place all season. While that doesn't make fantasy owners happy, it just makes sense for the team. They've been more feisty than many expected this year, but they still aren't contenders, even if they were to max out Embiid's minutes. With Embiid, and soon Ben Simmons, returning and looking to learn the ropes of the league after major injury, there's just no need for the 76ers to risk it. So, fantasy owners will just have to make do with the mayhem that Embiid has been producing his limited minutes. And while nothing official has been announced, I wouldn't be at all surprised if Simmons finds himself on a similar minutes limit once he's able to play again.

State of the Clippers: In the last two weeks, the Clippers have added Kevin Garnett to the coaching staff, lost Chris Paul to a broken thumb, and re-added Blake Griffin to the mix as he returned from a long injury absence. The Clippers started off the season like the team to beat, but natural slowing and injuries have pushed them off the contender pedestal. DeAndre Jordan has established himself as a borderline-dominant player in the last couple of weeks, and though I expect Griffin to eat into his numbers a bit, I don't think Jordan will slow down appreciably. The backcourt without Paul is more of a mystery, as each of Austin Rivers, Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford and J.J. Redick has proven useful for short spurts.

Fallout from Gay's torn Achilles: Rudy Gay is done for the season with a torn Achilles, but even though he was second on the team in scoring and rebounding, his absence may not affect the Kings' bottom line all that much. Fantasy-wise, there is a vacuum on the team with Gay out that thus far no one has stepped forward to consistently grab. It seems likely that Darren Collison will eventually settle in as a scoring beneficiary. As far as who gets Gay's minutes, thus far it has been Garrett Temple. This makes sense on a young team, as Matt Barnes is 36-years old, but the team has played well when Barnes starts so I'm not sure that Temple will hold this slot for the rest of the season. We'll see.

DeRozan's ankle: DeMar DeRozan has missed the last two games with a sprained ankle. While this has caused some short-term DFS speculation between Terrence Ross, Cory Joseph and Norman Powell, it is not considered to be a serious injury so he should be back soon. DeRozan will be re-evaluated to see whether he may return as soon as Friday.

Williams going nuts again: Lou Williams has been a super-sub all season for the Lakers, but he hit a peak in December in which he averaged 32.2 points, 4.0 boards, 3.0 assists, 3.6 treys and 1.8 steals over a five-game stretch while D'Angelo Russell was injured. Well, Russell is injured again, and once again Williams is going nuts to the tune of 24.6 points, 3.0 boards, 4.0 assists and 3.6 treys over his last five. DFS note: Williams has a tough match-up on paper against the Jazz on Thursday, but Williams has actually torched the Jazz in three meetings this season and therefore makes for a sneakily good play.

Chandler rebounding like a kid again: Tyson Chandler is 34-years old, yet somehow he's turned back the clock to when he was a dominant rebounder. Over the last two weeks (nine games), he has averaged 16.1 boards along with 12.1 points, making him a nightly, dominant double-double threat. I still think that if the Suns stay lottery-bound, it eventually makes sense for them to play Alex Len and their other young bigs over Chandler, so if you can trade Chandler for value it might make sense, but other than that just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

New Additions and DFS value

Dion Waiters, G (55% owned in Yahoo! Leagues): Waiters was in this spot last week when he was only 19% owned, but he's earned another shoutout based on what he's done since. He has been scorching this week, averaging 30 points on 61.4% FG, 5.0 assists, 4.3 boards, and 4.3 treys. While the field goal percentage is unsustainable, the always streaky Waiters has shown flashes of his big potential multiple times this season. With all of the injuries on the wings for the Heat, Waiters lines up as a potential source of points and threes for the rest of the season.

Ben Simmons, F (47% owned): As mentioned above, Simmons seems to be on the path to return to the court in the foreseeable future, likely sometime after the All-Star break. But this is purely a speculative add, as the 76ers have shown a tendency to treat their young potential stars with kid gloves and Simmons should be no different. If you've got the space, it may be worth it to take a chance on upside. Once healthy and settled in, Simmons should be a relatively strong source of assists and rebounds.

Khris Middleton, GF ($38% owned): Middleton is another player who hasn't played a minute this season, but unlike Simmons there's a good chance that Middleton comes in and immediately becomes an impact player. The Bucks have a huge need for shooters, and Middleton is a professional shooter/scorer who should get plenty of open looks playing off Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Iman Shumpert, GF (26% owned): Shumpert is a pure role player when he's in the starting lineup, contributing solidly in both 3-pointers (3.3 treys over last six games) and steals (1.7 spg, last six). Long term, he probably heads back to the bench, but for now he can be useful.

Willy Hernangomez, C (18% owned): Hernangomez is a talented young rookie on a Knicks team that seems to be going the wrong way and could end up in a youth movement. He has been getting more playing time of late and doing well with it, playing at least 20 minutes in four of his last five games and grabbing double-digit rebounds in all four.

Keeping up with the Professor

The Hoops Lab is now a blog with daily content, so check out/follow for the freshest NBA content every day. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210 on Tuesdays at 1:30 PM EST. Plus, I'm doing DFS articles just about every day, writing analytics pieces for Nylon Calculus on the Fansided Network, and I co-host the TYTSports basketball show on the weekends.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andre' Snellings
Andre' Snellings is a Neural Engineer by day, and RotoWire's senior basketball columnist by night. He's a two-time winner of the Fantasy Basketball Writer of the Year award from the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
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