Hoops Lab: Is Avery Bradley For Real?

On Friday I did my first Rotowire fantasy basketball podcast of the season with D.J. Trainor. But since it's me, the discussion turned out to be more about the story behind the numbers than a pure fantasy discussion. We talked about Pau Gasol and whether his decreased numbers are more about a drop in ability (no) or him settling into a Spurs squad that preaches rest and lack of individual numbers (yes). We talked about whether Dirk Nowitzki is a disappointment because he got injured after the draft or if, instead, he's just old. We talked about the per-minute ridiculosity (that's a word now) that is Joel Embiid, and whether there's any chance he plays 30+ minutes in a game this season (unlikely). And, finally, we talked about Avery Bradley.

Bradley spent the offseason in trade rumors, as the non-sexy starter in the Celtics backcourt who was an attractive trade asset on a roster teeming with solid, young talent. Isiah Thomas and newly signed Al Horford are the two borderline star-caliber cornerstones on the team, Jae Crowder is the glue guy whose numbers don't reflect his true value, and rookie Jaylen Brown, who looked explosive in his first experience at the Las Vegas Summer League, could be a star down the road. Celtics GM Danny Ainge has a history of stockpiling young talent, letting it mature a bit, then trading for a superstar.

Thus, Bradley appears to be both expendable and attractive, simultaneously.

There's only one problem with this theory: through the first month-plus of the season Bradley has been arguably the best fantasy producer on the Celtics. His only possible competition is Thomas, but it's no slam dunk. Here are their averages to date:

Thomas: 26.1 pts, 43.2% FG (18.4 FGA), 87.6% FT (9.1 FTA), 2.3 3-ptrs, 6.3 ast, 2.6 reb, 0.8 stl, 2.4 TO
Bradley: 17.9 pts, 46.8% FG (15.6 FGA), 73.1% FT (11.6 FTA), 2.1 3-ptrs, 2.9 ast, 8.0 reb, 1.1 stl, 1.9 TO

While Thomas' scoring and positive effect on free throws have him rated slightly higher to date (28th for Thomas vs 31st for Bradley, by Yahoo! season totals), Bradley's solid across-the-board numbers with elite backcourt rebounding have him right in the mix in year-long leagues.

And in DFS leagues, the story is the same. Thomas and Horford both came into the season defaulting to higher prices across the platforms while Bradley was down in the moderate/affordable range. And it's taken a month of consistently strong showings for Bradley to close the price gap slightly, but he's still less expensive than Thomas.

So when we discussed Bradley in the Rotowire podcast, D.J.'s question to me was: Is Bradley for real? Will he be playing this well for the rest of the season? For DFS it's all about the now, but for owners in year-long leagues, should they be trying to trade Bradley?

It's a good question. And like most good questions, there's no clear black-and-white answer. Bradley has undoubtedly seen increases in both his scoring and rebounding numbers due to the injury absences of Horford and Crowder. And despite his strong play, Bradley's name is still being mentioned in trade rumors as of last week. So, there is reason to still have questions about Bradley's long-term viability.

But on the flip side, there is also good reason to believe that Bradley and his current level of play is sustainable. For one, he's a seven-year veteran, but he just turned 26 on Saturday. He was a one-and-done player out of college, so, much like DeMar DeRozan,he's just approaching his physical peak. And for the most part, Bradley's per-100 possessions numbers are very similar to what he's produced in the last few years, with one major exception:

2015: 22.2 pts, 53.8% TS, 4.2 reb, 3.0 ast, 2.2 stl, 2.8 3-ptrs (36.1%), 2.1 TO
2016: 25.0 pts, 54.9% TS, 11.2 reb, 4.0 ast, 1.6 stl, 3.0 3-ptrs (39.5%), 2.6 TO

Bradley's rebounding ability this year has seemingly come out of the blue. He has been the best rebounder in Boston this year, and at this point it's more than a trend. However, Boston tends to get a lot of rebounds from Crowder and Horford, so their return will undoubtedly eat into those boards. So this is the one area that figures to eventually see some regression. But it still seems clear he's in for a career-year in the rebounding category, and he should remain a considerably better rebounder than the standard shooting guard.

The other main risk is that Bradley gets traded. But there are two angles here: For one, the Celtics are allegedly trying to trade for a superstar. So if Bradley is traded, he is likely to go to a bad team that just dealt a superstar. As such, even if moved, Bradley would likely still be able to get his numbers.

On the other hand, if I'm Boston, why do I want to trade this guy? He's a young, two-time All-Defensive Team guard with 20-point scoring potential. Maybe it's time to start thinking of Bradley as part of the Celtics' future core, and not such an expendable asset.

Either way, it certainly appears that Bradley has the ability to continue to play at the level that he has been minus a likely regression in rebounds. Whether the team trades him or not, he seems likely to continue to produce. So while, sure, if I'm an owner in a year-long league I listen to offers for Bradley and see what I can get for him, I'm not in any hurry to move him -- and if I could get him for the right price I'd be fine with trading for him as well.

Around the NBA

George's back keeping him out:Paul George has missed five of the last six games with nagging back and ankle injuries. The team announced last week that he would miss the next three games, which would peg his estimated return date at December 4th. While it is annoying to be without one of the best players on your team, in the long run it'd be better for fantasy owners if the Pacers would just sit him until he's healthy so that this doesn't turn into a lingering injury over a longer period.

Draymond's ankle:Draymond Green suffered a left ankle contusion on Friday when he collided with a teammate. While he was initially of the mindset to play on Saturday, he instead sat out against the Timberwolves but returned to play 39 minutes in Monday's win over Atlanta. While Green finished with only four points, seven assists and three rebounds, he should be considered healthy going forward.

Favors' knee:Derrick Favors has missed the past five games with a bone contusion on his left knee and has no timetable for a return. In his absence Trey Lyles and Boris Diaw have been taking turns starting at power forward. Diaw started on Friday, but Lyles still played 27 minutes and produced a 13-points/10-rebounds double-double. If anyone should be picked up in Favors' absence, it's the youngster Lyles.

Lakers injuries + Ingram: The Lakers are a very interesting team this year, full of young and cheap talent that keeps succeeding even when players are hurt. D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle started establishing themselves as cornerstones of the team, but both are currently injured. Russell is nursing a sore left knee that required a platelet-rich plasma injection, and Randle dealing with a sore hip that has kept him out of three straight games. But even with Russell and Randle both out on Sunday, the Lakers still had enough to come back from a 13-point deficit to win by 15 against a solid Hawks team.

The Lakers just keep rolling along because they have a very deep team when everyone is healthy. They have five players averaging more than 23 points per 100 possessions who all play between 23 and 28 minutes per game. Thus, all of them can scale up. And with Russell out, it's been Jordan Clarkson who has scaled up the most in the backcourt with averages of 18 points, 3.0 boards, 2.8 assists and 3.0 steals in about 32 minutes per game. In the frontcourt, Larry Nance averaged 11.5 points and 8.5 boards in 26 minutes per in two weekend games, but the more intriguing player, long-term, has been Brandon Ingram. He's made a couple of starts and has extended his playing time with Randle out, and he has responded by averaging 10.6 poins, 6.8 boards, 1.8 assists and 1.4 combined steals and blocks in 24.6 minutes over his last five games.

Nuggets wings injuries and replacements:Danilo Gallinari (thigh, three games + counting), Will Barton (ankle, two games + counting) and Gary Harris (foot, out multiple weeks) are all missing time for the Nuggets. This has opened up the opportunity for Wilson Chandler to go nuts (28.5 points, 9.5 boards, 3.0 assists, 2.5 treys, 2.0 combined steals/blocks over last two games), for veteran Jameer Nelson to pop up on the fantasy radar (21 points, 8.0 assists, 3.5 treys, 3.0 boards over last two games), and for rookie Jamal Murray to continue his burst onto the scene (18.8 points, 4.6 boards, 2.8 treys, 2.2 assists over last five games).

Warren's mysterious head injury:T.J. Warren has missed five straight games now with a mysterious ailment. At first, the Suns were saying it was an illness, but mid-week it was announced that he was dealing with a minor head injury and he would be out indefinitely. Finally, Suns GM Ryan McDonough said that Warren still has no firm timetable to return: "I think he'll be out a matter of weeks. I don't think it will be days, but I don't think it will be months," McDonough said. So, yeah. We don't know the details, but apparently it's not overly serious and Warren should be back on the court sometime in…December? I guess? Maybe? Yeah, let's go with that.

Randolph's sad news:Zach Randolph has missed the last couple of games following the death of his mother. No timetable has been announced for his return.

New Additions and DFS value

Jamal Murray, G (53% owned in Yahoo! leagues): As mentioned above, Murray has been playing very well lately. He had four straight games of at least 14 points scored before Sunday, and he has the talent to keep scoring as long as he's given minutes. On a team like the Nuggets that is building for the future, it seems like they would continue to grow and play their young prospects as much as possible.
Ersan Ilyasova, F (39% owned): Ilyasova has been starting at power forward for the 76ers, and in the three games leading up to Sunday he was averaging 15.3 points with 10 boards, 1.7 assists, 1.7 treys and 0.3 blocks per game.

Dion Waiters, GF (38% owned): Waiters is a professional scorer who is starting and playing well for the Heat, despite an nagging groin injury. He is averaging 18.3 points, 4.5 assists, 3.5 boards and 2.0 treys over his last four games. The Heat announced Tuesday that Waiters will sit out the next three games, but his absence doesn't figure to be an overly lengthy one.

JaMychal Green, F (27% owned): Green has been the starter, but Zach Randolph still gets starters minutes. Green has upped his level of play with Randolph out, which could benefit him even when Randolph returns from his personal absence.

Larry Nance Jr., F (25% owned): As mentioned above, Nance has been getting more run and playing well in the added minutes with Julius Randle dealing with a hip pointer. Randle should be back soon, so this would be either a short-term add or a speculative long-term add as Nance is young and could earn a bigger role as the season goes along.
Patrick Patterson, FC (10% owned): Patterson is a veteran specialist at this point in his career, a center-eligible player that can knock down the trey. He has 10 three-pointers in his last four games, making him rosterable if that's a need for your team.

Keeping up with the Professor

The Hoops Lab is now a blog with daily content, so check out/follow hoopslab.hsmyyt.com every day. Follow me on Twitter @ProfessorDrz. Also, don't forget that you can catch me on the radio on Rotowire Fantasy Sports Today with Chris Liss and Jeff Erickson on XM 87, Sirius 210 on Tuesdays at 1:30 PM EST. Plus, I'm doing DFS articles just about every day on the site. I am also writing analytics pieces for Nylon Calculus on the Fansided Network, and I co-host the TYT basketball show on the weekends.