This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
We're getting to the end of the bubble and it's time for this baby to pop. We have so many teams resting players and so many random lineups right now, that it's hard to know what to expect. What that does do is open up value for DFS though, and we'll look for some of that here.
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Slate Overview
PHX vs. PHI: With half of Philly's roster missing, Phoenix enters this matchup as a 7.5-point favorite. The total hasn't been released but it should be around 225-230.
BOS vs. MEM: Boston enters this game as a 4.5-point favorite, with a total sitting at 223.
POR vs. DAL: With Dallas' uncertainty, Portland comes into this matchup as a 1.5-point favorite. The total should be in the 230s between these two offensively potent teams.
SAC vs. NOP: All of the big names are out for this game, leaving New Orleans as a 1.5-point favorite. The total could be approaching 235 between these poor defenses.
MIL vs. WSH: Milwaukee is currently an 8.5-point favorite but that could rise or fall depending on who suits up for them. The total hasn't been released but it should be around 230 as well.
Positional Breakdown
PG: Damian Lillard is a hard player to avoid, sitting up top here at $9,900. Ja Morant is next at $7,400 while Lonzo Ball and Ricky Rubio are in the mid $6,000s. Eric Bledsoe, Ish Smith and Kemba Walker sit in the mid-$5,000s while Shake Milton, Seth Curry and Cory Joseph make for nice value plays.
SG: Luka Doncic is the highest-priced player on the slate at $10,500. Devin Booker barely cracks $8K while CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton sit in the low $7,000s. Bogdan Bogdanovic is an amazing value at $5,600 while Buddy Hield, Alec Burks, Josh Hart and Furkan Korkmaz sit below $5,000.
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo is up top here at $11,000 and is a great play -- if he suits up. Tobias Harris would also be fantastic if he suits up at $7,400. Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Troy Brown and Tim Hardaway are all in play around $6K. In terms of value, we like Cameron Johnson, Harrison Barnes, Matisse Thybulle and Glenn Robinson.
PF: Kristaps Porzingis is the cream here at $8,500 while Jayson Tatum is at $8,200. Al Horford would be awesome if he plays at $6,200, with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons both out. Daniel Theis, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke all have value in the upper-$5,000s. Nemanja Bjelica, Nicolo Melli and Ersan Ilyasova could be interesting if injury reports fall their way.
C: WithEmbiid out, Jusuf Nurkic is the king of centers at $8,500. Deandre Ayton, Jonas Valanciunas and Thomas Bryant are in the $7K-range. Brook Lopez has huge upside at $6K while Jaxson Hayes, Boban Marjanovic and Kyle O'Quinn could all be fascinating minimum price plays depending on injuries.
Injuries to Monitor
Ben Simmons (PHI)
Simmons suffered a knee injury and will be out the remainder of the restart
Joel Embiid (PHI)
Embiid suffered an ankle sprain and will not suit up here either.
Al Horford/Josh Richardson/Tobias Harris (PHI)
Richardson will be rested while Harris and Horford are both questionable. If all of these guys are out, Shake Milton should run things from the point while Furkan Korkmaz, Matisse Thybulle and Alec Burks see a major bump.
Jaren Jackson (MEM)
Jackson will miss the remainder of the restart because of a meniscus tear. Look for Brandon Clarke to step into his role and for Josh Jackson to do more. Kyle Anderson and Grayson Allen will play more too.
De'Aaron Fox/Richaun Holmes/Marvin Bagley (SAC)
Fox has been ruled out because of a shoulder issue. That should force Cory Joseph into the starting lineup and give Bogdan Bogdanovic more touches. The two big men are unlikely to see action either, leading the way clear for Nemanja Bjelica and Harry Giles to pick up more minutes.
Luka Doncic/Kristaps Porzingis/Dorian Finney-Smith (DAL)
These three guys sat out Sunday and they all enter this matchup as questionable. If they're all out, look for Seth Curry, Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway and Boban Marjanovic to carry the load.
Jrue Holiday/Brandon Ingram/Zion Williamson (NOP)
These three have all been ruled out for this game and are likely done for the year. Lonzo Ball, Jaxson Hayes, Kenrich Williams and Josh Hart all gain a ton of value. We don't expect Derrick Favors to play either, and that makes Hayes one of the best plays out there.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)
Giannis missed Monday's game because of oral surgery and he enters this matchup as questionable. If he's out again, look for Khris Middleton to be one of the chalkiest plays on the board.
Elite Players
Damian Lillard, POR ($9,900)
With numerous teams resting players and many studs entering this slate with a questionable tag, Lillard is probably the best play on the board. One of the reasons for that is because his team has something to play for. That was certainly evident in his last game, as he dropped 65 fantasy points in an absolute gem. He actually had 75 FD points just a few days before that. It's clear that this is Dame Time and we're just living in it.
Devin Booker, PHX ($8,100)
Phoenix is the last remaining undefeated team in the bubble and it's clear they want to keep that going. What makes it all the more important is the fact that they are fighting for that tournament spot. That should keep Booker plenty motivated, with the sharpshooter scoring at least 36 FanDuel points in nine straight games while averaging 45 fantasy points per game in that span.
Expected chalk
Lillard and Booker are likely to be chalk for the reasons discussed above. There's also a ton of injury question marks which could create other popular plays. Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton would be chalk if Antetokounmpo sits. If either Luka Doncic or Kristaps Porzingis sits, the other one could be chalk, with Tim Hardaway also winding up on a lot of rosters. Lonzo Ball could be chalk for the Pelicans with the rest of the starting lineup sitting as well.
Key Values
Bogdan Bogdanovic, SAC ($5,400)
This dude is in my article every time I write one, and he always produces. The wild thing about it is that FanDuel continues to keep his salary affordable. Not only has he scored at least 33 FD points in three straight fixtures, Bogdanovic is also averaging 38 fantasy points per game across 36 minutes in that span. All of this doesn't even take into consideration that De'Aaron Fox will be out of action, and Bogey will be facing a 28th-ranked Pelicans defense. Don't fade this guy!
Jaxson Hayes, NOP ($3,500)
Hayes is my favorite value play of the day, especially if Favors sits. We're talking about a guy who's averaging 16.4 FD points per game across 16.5 minutes. If we can get 30-plus minutes here with everyone out at a similar rate of production, that equates to 30 FanDuel points. That could even be conservative -- if you look at the 15 games that Hayes has played at least 24 minutes this season, he's averaging 28 FanDuel points per game. All he needs is 20 fantasy points to reach value at this price tag, and I truly believe that's his floor.
Also, if Tobias Harris and Al Horford are out for Philly, Shake Milton is one of the best plays on the board with Simmons and Embiid also injured.
Keep an eye on Dallas, Milwaukee and Philly in terms of injury reports! They could change the slate.
