FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

FanDuel NBA: Thursday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.

We have a massive, 11-game slate available Thursday, with several value pivots to comb through. Let's get right to it, beginning with the spreads and totals .

SLATE OVERVIEW

IND (-8.5) vs, HOU O/U: 221

NOR (-4.5) @ ORL O/U: 210.5

PHI (-9.5) vs. ATL O/U: 214.5

MIA (-10.5) vs. DET O/U: 206

WAS (-1) @ NYK O/U: 208.5

MIL (-5) @ DAL O./U: 215.5

DEN (-3.5) vs. CHA O/U: 229.5

UTA (-10.5) vs. MIN O/U: 226

PHO (-14.5) vs. OKC O/U: 215

GSW (-6) vs. MEM O/U: 217.5

LAL (-1.5) vs. SAS O/U: 224

I've crunched some models that project to 400 and higher for today's slate, so you will need to pop a very high number to bink A GPP tonight. If you aren't an MME player, you'll be behind the 8-ball, but a solid lineup with upside is doable in single-entry GPPs and cash games.

INJURIES

HOU Kevin Porter (thigh) - OUT

HOU Jalen Green (hamstring) - PROBABLE

Green's potential return will shuffle the long-term injury pivots around, and this shake-up will make any budget plays less palatable with so many options available.

IND Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) - QUESTIONABLE

One can only ope that the Achilles injury wasn't too serious, but with an injury like that, Brogdon is likely to miss. His absence will shift the backcourt load to Caris LeVert ($6,400).

NOP Jonas Valanciunas (illness) - OUT

NOP Nickeil Alexander-Walker (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

Willy Hernangomez ($4,600) is your best pivot option for Valanciunas Thursday.

ORL Cole Anthony (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE

ORL Wendell Carter (leg) - QUESTIONABLE

ORL Mo Bamba (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

ORL Terrence Ross (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

ORL Mychal Mulder (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

ORL R.J. Hampton (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

ORL Moritz Wagner (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

Gary Harris ($5,600) and Hassani Gravett ($4,200) are Orlando's best guard pivots if Anthony misses tonight. Franz Wagner ($6,800) will see a lot of work tonight, and Robin Lopez ($5,700) will start after an excellent 37-FP line in his last outing.

ATL Trae Young (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

ATL Clint Capela (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

ATL Kevin Huerter (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

ATL Danilo Gallinari (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

Cam Reddish ($4,300) slipped out of my scope in the last game, so I own that omission. Delon Wright ($4,500) did pretty much what we expected, and John Collins ($7,700) was very impressive. I am inclined to press the brakes on Onyeka Okongwu due to the array of options available at center.

PHI Andre Drummond (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

PHI Shake Milton (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

PHI Danny Green (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

Philly's first unit isn't affected much by these absences, and there isn't a low-cost pivot worth mentioning.

DET Cade Cunningham (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

DET Jerami Grant (thumb) - OUT

Saben Lee ($5,000) and Hamidou Diallo ($4,800) are the best budget picots in this game, while Saddiq Bey ($6,400) and Isaiah Stewart ($5,600) will carry a full load with the first unit.

MIA Jimmy Butler (back) -OUT

MIA Bam Adebayo (thumb) - OUT

MIA P.J. Tucker (leg) - OUT

MIA Cody Martin (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

These injury spots are nothing new. It'll be up to Kyle Lowry ($7,900) and Tyler Herro ($6,200) to do a lot of the heavy lifting against Detroit, and Max Strus ($5,800) will be the most likely candidate to beat value at his salary.

NYK Derrick Rose (ankle) - OUT

NYK Immanuel Quickley (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

NYK Quentin Grimes (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

NYK Miles McBride (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

NYK Nerlens Noel (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

The slew of backcourt absences clears the way for Kemba Walker ($6,600) to have an impact, especially with Derrick Rose out for a few months. Mitchell Robinson ($5,700) is worth a pivot mention here due to his recent explosive play. He registered 43 FP in his last game against Detroit. 

MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

MIL Bobby Portis (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

MIL Donte DiVincenzo (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

MIL Sandro Mamukelashvili (illness) - QUESTIONABLE

We'll mention some obvious options shortly, but we should expect above-average numbers for DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000) and Jordan Nwora ($6,900).

DAL Luka Doncic (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

DAL Kristaps Porzingis (toe) QUESTIONABLE

DAL Tim Hardaway (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

DAL Trey Burke (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

DAL Maxi Kleber (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

DAL Reggie Bullock (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

Porzingis has an excellent chance to take over the game if he plays. Otherwise, Doncic's absence remains a good opportunity for Jalen Brunson ($7,400), while Sterling Brown ($4,400), Theo Pinson ($4,600) and Frank Ntilikina ($3,900) will provide budget value.

CHA Cody Martin (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

Not much changes with the first unit, but Jalen McDaniels will pick up more minutes in Martin's absence.

MIN Anthony Edwards (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

MIN Jarred Vanderbilt (COVID-19 Protocols) - O

MIN Patrick Beverley (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

MIN Naz Reid (calf) - QUESTIONABLE

MIN Jaylen Nowell (thumb) - QUESTIONABLE

Pivot to the starters here, with special attention to Malik Beasley ($5,300) as a replacement.

GSW Andrew Wiggins (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

GSW Jordan Poole (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

GSW Damion Lee (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

Otto Porter ($4,500) and Gary Payton ($4,700) lead the way as pivots for the Warriors tonight.

LAL Anthony Davis (knee) - OUT

LAL Kent Bazemore (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT

Dwight Howard ($4,500) is back in action and should do a  lot of work under center for Davis, while Carmelo Anthony ($5,200) will also help to prop up the interior game for the Lakers.

To summarize what we just covered, I think Hernangomez, LeVert, Reddish and Porter are my best four out of this section.

ELITE PLAYERS

Nikola Jokic ($11,300) disappointed many a DFS player with a horrible total Wednesday, but it would be foolish to think of this as anything more than an outlier. He's a great option against Charlotte. He's also my favorite center at the top, as Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns are also lurking at similar price points. Embiid ($10,700) might also be too good to pass up against the Capela-less Hawks.

Elsewhere in the 9k-plus range, I expect Stephen Curry ($9,700) and Dejounte Murray ($9,900) to excel tonight. Murray's salary is interesting because his high cost could create a contrarian position, making his value less about paying off and more about his exposure to the field. Jrue Holiday ($9,500) is also in play, but unlike Murray, his high salary won't have the same benefit of low exposure.

I'll round out the elites by going a little lower to Julius Randle ($8,700), who will have his work cut out for him amidst a depleted roster against the Wizards. I am also a big fan of the Pacers against Houston, making Domantas Sabonis ($8,600) an ideal elite play.

Also consider: Donovan Mitchell, UTA ($8,400) vs. MIN

EXPECTED CHALK + CORE TARGETS

Deandre Ayton, PHO ($8,100) vs. OKC

With Devin Booker back in the fold, even more assists should come Ayton's way, and he's in a very exploitative spot against the Thunder. He's coming off a nice double-double against the Lakers and will look to continue the streak at home.

D'Angelo Russell, MIN ($7,800) @ UTA

With his teammate Anthony Edwards out, Russell will need to put in a full line in an effort to pull an upset on the road. While he's had excellent scoring totals recently, his assist totals are crucial to paying off at this salary. With any luck, KAT can gain some traction against Rudy Gobert and deliver with some assist connections for Russell.

Khris Middleton, MIL ($7,700) @ DAL

Middleton's salary is great and looks to be a much better option than Holiday, as the salary differential will probably pay off for Middleton against the Mavs, who will be playing without several playmakers. Middleton possesses a historically solid floor, but he hasn't popped above that as much as we would have hoped in Giannis' absence. Still, this salary is worth considering due to the potential upside in this matchup.

Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,100) vs. ATL

As I go through the slate, Embiid's worthiness grows slightly, but Harris is equally viable at an exceedingly rare low salary. While John Collins is doing admirable work inside amidst Atlanta's injury woes, Harris should be able to beat value, especially after a day of rest due to a postponed game. 40 FP is a definite possibility in this spot.

Tyrese Maxey, PHI ($6,600) vs. ATL

Seth Curry ($6,700) is also viable, but Maxey was playing top-notch ball before being saddled with a quad injury, and there is currently no news about a minute restriction. Curry becomes a better option if we hear differently, but both players have value against an Atlanta team that's playing without Trae Young.

Also consider: Cole Anthony (if he plays), ORL ($7,700) vs, NOP

VALUE PLAYS

Most of my value plays exist as pivots in the injury section, and I have already highlighted some of my favorites. Here are some additional values that slipped through the cracks.

Myles Turner, IND ($6,400) vs. HOU

The undersized Rockets represent a smash spot for both Turner and Domantas Sabonis, and Turner has been holding his own alongside his teammate. The big man has swatted an eye-popping 15 blocks over his past four games. If he can get his shot volume to over 10 attempts, he could easily find himself in double-double territory.

Will Barton, DEN ($5,600) vs. CHA

Perhaps a few days of rest will cure what is ailing Barton, who is still at a reasonable salary despite some ugly shooting performances. He's only averaged 20 FP over his last three games, and we need more than that for Barton to pay off. Low rostership and potential upside are the two green flags in Barton's favor here.

Jordan Clarkson, UTA ($5,000) vs. MIN

The perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate is way too cheap, especially against the Timberwolves in what could be a blowout scenario at home. Clarkson is always good with garbage time in a lopsided matchup, but he will get extended time whenever he's hot right away.  He usually gets to the floor midway through the first quarter, and a lot depends on how he's faring in the early moments. The usage volatility is of some concern, but the favorable matchup negates most of the worry about Clarkson's potential.

Also consider: Kyle Kuzma, WAS ($5,400) @ NYK

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jeff Edgerton
Jeff has provided sports content for numerous sports outlets and has played fantasy sports since scores had to be tabulated via newspaper. He started working with RotoWire in 2017. Originally from South Carolina, he's a lifelong Clemson fan now enjoying the sun in Los Angeles.
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