This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Our main slate for Saturday kicks off at 7:00 p.m. ET, and there are seven games on the docket. Let's begin with the early word from Vegas.
SLATE OVERVIEW
(odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to Fade in ITALIC
CLE @ PHI (-10) O/U: 223.5
MIN @ WAS (-4.5) O/U: 236
UTA @ ORL (+10.5) O/U: 217.5
DEN @ OKC (+7) O/U: 225.5
IND @ NYK (+1) O/U: 216.5
NOR @ SAS (+4) O/U: 228.5
DAL @ BKN (-3) O/U: 238.5
INJURIES
PHI Tobias Harris (knee) - OUT
Harris rarely misses, so a pivot for him will have to wait until the lineup locks. Stay tuned here at RotoWire for this news. If I had to make a call now, I would consider Furkan Korkmaz ($3,500) and Shake Milton ($4,200) for more minutes.
MIN Malik Beasley (suspension) - OUT
MIN D'Angelo Russell (knee) - OUT
The perfect storm has arrived for Anthony Edwards ($6,000). This injury scenario vaults him from a GPP consideration to a bonafide cash play. Look for more highlight reel-worthy moments for Edwards in the future. Beasley's starter isn't obvious, but Josh Okogie ($3,500) and Jaylen Nowell ($3,700) are the two favorites. Jarrett Culver ($3,700) is also possible. This is a wait-and-see spot worth waiting on, but if you're busy in the afternoon, punting with Nowell would be my favorite call here.
WAS Davis Bertans (knee) -QUESTIONABLE
I'm not moving past the elites for the Wizards. The situation is just too muddled.
NYK Elfrid Payton (hamstring) - DOUBTFUL
Derrick Rose ($5,700) will start again and is arguably the safer play. His upside was limited due to the blowout, but this will be a closer game, and I expect him to perform a bit better tonight. Immanuel Quickley ($5,500) is also in play.
JaMychal Green (shoulder) - OUT
Paul Millsap (knee) - OUT
Gary Harris (thigh) - OUT
The Nuggets' rotation has been tough to nail recently. The coach is fickle on Michael Porter ($6,200), but you have to go with him if he starts. I'm not confident with much below the starting five here tonight.
OKC Hamidou Diallo (groin) - OUT
The Thunder's starting five is finally healthy, but losing Diallo puts a dent in their rotation. I'm calling Kenrich Williams as the primary pivot ($4,000) here. Obviously, the starting five is poised for more usage as Diallo can play three positions.
ORL Aaron Gordon (ankle)- OUT
ORL Cole Anthony (rib) - OUT
ORL James Ennis (calf)- OUT
This game has the biggest blowout potential, but losing Ennis leaves a big hole for someone to fill here. This could be a big moment for Al-Farouq Aminu ($3,700) to make a splash, but Dwayne Bacon ($3,800) has the higher floor and is a safer play overall.
SAS DeMar DeRozan (personal) - QUESTIONABLE
SAS LaMarcus Aldridge (wrist) - QUESTIONABLE
SAS Keldon Johnson (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
SAS Derrick White (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
SAS Rudy Gay (COVID-19 protocols) - OUT
The whole situation gets difficult if both Aldridge and DeRozan play. If Aldridge is out, Jakob Poeltl ($5,900) is immediately viable. If DeRozan is out, Lonnie Walker ($4,200) and Trey Lyles ($4,000) emerge as favorable plays. Dejounte Murray's ($8,200) is too high if DeRozan is in, but he's just fine if DeRozan is out, as is Patty Mills ($4,100). Keita Bates-Diop ($4,100) is also a great punt play at small forward.
Kristaps Porzingis (back) - QUESTIONABLE
Two words for figuring out a sound pivot for Prozingis if he misses -- good luck. Any call I make would probably be the wrong one. I missed the late news for Boban Marjanovic ($3,700), and you can go with him if he starts, but I think a play for anyone with a center designation for Dallas is bleeding value. James Johnson ($4,000) is a lot more valuable due to his PF eligibility, but I would only go in this direction if he starts.
ELITE PLAYERS
We've got a four-player logjam in the 10k range tonight, and there are pluses and minuses for each player. The player with the most going for him is Joel Embiid ($10,300) against Jarrett Allen and the Cavaliers. Harris's absence will put even more pressure on Embiid to succeed, and you should expect a big number here. There is some blowout risk, and that's the only blemish on Embiid tonight. Behind him, I like James Harden's ($10,800) assist ceiling in the point guard spot, but Kyrie Irving's ($9,000) favorable price is always going to make him more palatable. He doesn't stuff the stat sheet as much, but there's a lot you can do with $1,800 more in the bank. We round out the 10k options with Luka Doncic ($10,300). By his standards, his recent games have been a bit disappointing, but the word 'defense' is a foreign word for the Nets, which should work in Luka's favor. Nikola Jokic at $10,900 is fine, but not my favorite, mostly since we can approach his value for less money on this slate.
In the 9k elite range, Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700) is my favorite play against the weary Wizards frontcourt. This should be a smash spot for Towns, putting him into a virtual tie with Embiid as the top center. Come on, FanDuel! Could you give us a utility spot? Russell Westbrook ($9,400) is another great play on the other side of this matchup, and I favor him a bit over Bradley Beal ($9,600) due to his stat-stuffing potential. Nikola Vucevic ($9,700) and Domantas Sabonis ($9,900) are not really on my radar tonight, but Ben Simmons ($9,000) and Julius Randle ($8,900) will earn a good bit of exposure. Both come at a much better price and can offer salary relief over the former duo.
EXPECTED CHALK
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC ($8,300) vs. DEN
Few teams can hinder SGA's offensive engine. The Nuggets did a good job of containing him in their first meeting, but expect a much better night for the shooting guard with a full complement of starters around him this time. Jokic's presence will drive the Thunder out to the perimeter, allowing SGA to create shots.
Zion Williamson ($8,900) and Brandon Ingram ($7,700), NOR @ SAS
Ingram's price is almost comical in this spot. It's going to be very hard to get away from him against the injury-depleted Spurs. Zion is more expensive, but the Spurs almost pulled off a win despite their injury issues, leading me to think that this game will be competitive enough to stack these two elites. If you don't stack someone like Luka and Westbrook, or Harden and Kyrie, going with both of these guys isn't a bad call at all and can save you a bit more money.
Lonzo Ball, NOR ($6,900) @ SAS
Yes, Ball deserves his own paragraph. Stacking all three Pelicans isn't advisable, but he's the obvious third option for me against the Spurs. He's rattled off value-beating numbers in three of his last four games, with only one sub-30 FDFP game coming against the Celtics. He's been able to match his prolific assist numbers with a heightened shot volume, and it's resulted in a lot of success for the point guard in recent weeks.
Also consider: Rudy Gobert, UTA ($7,600) @ ORL
VALUE PLAYS
Mike Conley, UTA ($6,200) @ ORL
Despite the potential blowout, it's hard to fade Conley's upside at this price. Since his return, he's beaten 5x value in three of his last four games, and his minutes have inched up with every contest. There's an argument that they may let him rest once this game gets out of hand, but he could be healthy enough to use the game as a way to regain his shot volume. A decent night from the floor, combined with a large dose of assists, could result in a big number for Conley.
Bruce Brown, BKN ($5,300) vs. DAL
Brown continues to get it done in the elite-heavy starting five of the Nets. More minutes and a slightly higher shot volume would be wonderful, but the metrics say that his floor will deliver value at this price once again, without much of a problem.
Tim Hardaway, DAL ($4,800) @ BKN
I also like Josh Richardson ($4,500) in this spot. As we've said, the Nets aren't very strong defensively, and Doncic will need some assistance from his role players, especially if Porzingis sits as expected. Both Both J-Rich and THJ have stuffed their stat lines in recent days, and while I like Hardaway a bit more, the two are mostly interchangeable as viable value plays on the slate.
Dylan Windler, CLE ($4,000) @ PHI
I'm envisioning a game that gets out of hand, in which case the Cavs will again see what they have in Windler. Essentially a rookie after missing all of last season, Windler has found additional minutes in Taurean Prince's absence, but FanDuel has him with an SG designation. He can play three positions for the Cavs and should be in line for enough to crush value at $4,000.
Also consider: Al Horford, OKC ($6,300) @ DEN, Ricky Rubio, MIN ($5,100) @ WAS, Seth Curry, PHI ($4,700) vs. CLE,
