This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
As usual, most sites will exclude the early Saturday game for their main slate, and today is no different. The PHI/PHO game will be excluded, and our main slate will begin at 4:30 p.m. ET. Despite only fielding four games, the slate is full of elite talent and showcases one of the best matchups of the year, as Steph Curry and the Warriors face the elite-loaded Nets.
SLATE OVERVIEW
(odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook and are subject to change)
Games/Teams to Target in BOLD
Games/Teams to FADE in ITALIC
IND @ ATL (+1.5) O/U: 226.5
HOU @ NYK (+1) O/U: 209.5
BKN @ GSW (+4) O/U:
MIA @ UTA (-5) O/U: 217.5
INJURIES
HOU Christian Wood (ankle) - OUT
HOU Victor Oladipo (foot) - OUT
HOU P.J. Tucker (thigh) - QUESTIONABLE
HOU John Wall (ankle) - PROBABLE
I expect John Wall ($7,500) to be good to go for this game, and he becomes one of the best point guard plays on the slate with Oladipo out. Eric Gordon ($5,600) is reasonably priced and always a chalk play when one of Houston's backcourt starters are out. We need to monitor Tucker's status to a degree because Jae'Sean Tate ($5,600) would get a decent boost without Tucker in play. Obviously, DeMarcus Cousins ($6,200) will start again, and while I'm not thrilled about his recent production, the absences tonight will boost everyone's usage. You will be using at least one player in this situation, and I like Wall, Gordon, Tate and Cousins, in that order.
NYK Mitchell Robinson (hand) - OUT
Robinson fractured his hand in the last game, and it's a massive loss for the Knicks. There is a clear pivot for this injury, and it's Nerlens Noel ($4,000). Noel is not the type of player that will net 30-35 minutes, but he's going to start under center and be a decent point-per-minute contributor in Robinson's place. It's too soon to tell, but Obi Toppin ($3,500) could end up seeing more run in the future. He's a risky play tonight, however. Taj Gibson ($3,500) also merits a look, as he played the entire fourth quarter at center.
BKN DeAndre Jordan (personal) - OUT
Jeff Green ($4,500) is the only guy to consider at this spot, as I don't see the Nets binging out the likes of Noah Vonleh ($3,500) or Norvel Pelle ($3,500). Green's a very fair play in slate's fastest game.
MIA Goran Dragic (ankle) - OUT
This is the least-appealing game on the slate today. While Miami's regular elite plays (Butler, Adebayo) should have decent games, I like too many other spots to give any pivot consideration in the Miami backcourt. Of the group, Kendrick Nunn ($5,300) would be the best value play.
UTA Mike Conley (hamstring) - OUT
Despite the slow pace, some value could open up if Conley sits. Donovan Mitchell ($8,300), Joe Ingles ($4,900) and Jordan Clarkson ($4,700) are all well-priced relative to their current projections and are viable options if Conley is out. I would be less inclined to go this direction if Conley plays, but Clarkson might still garner a spot based on his low salary.
ELITE PLAYERS
It's no big surprise, but the Nets-Warriors matchup is the contest to hammer tonight. It'll have high scoring, a fast pace, elite talent -- it checks every box. You couldn't ask for a better spot for Stephen Curry ($10,800), who rightfully tops the slate and has been absolutely electrifying over the past couple of weeks. He's a cinch to put up 20-25 shots and possibly more with the lightning-fast potential of this game.
While there's an argument for Curry as the number one add, I am a big fan of the intangibles. Kevin Durant ($10,000) makes his first trip back to the Bay Area in a revenge game to end all revenge games, and if you read my column with any frequency, you know that I love the potential a game like this provides. After sitting through the COVID-19 protocols, he should be well-rested and good to go Saturday. He's the number one guy for Brooklyn. I am less enamored with James Harden ($10,300), as I don't see his salary aligning with his projected totals anytime soon. Conversely, Kyrie Irving ($9,800) still sits at a somewhat reasonable price, so he'll merit some exposure this evening.
We round out the 9k-plus players with Domantas Sabonis ($9,600) and Trae Young ($10,200). While Sabonis burned many players earlier in the week, he sets up well against the Hawks. I am not at all interested in Trae Young tonight, however. Compared to other options, it's hard to get to Young at this price in a game that Indiana should dominate. We've already mentioned Jimmy Butler ($9,000) briefly, and as I said, your exposure should be low with the Heat.
EXPECTED CHALK
Julius Randle, NYK ($8,600) vs. HOU
Randle is the top reason why you shouldn't be too confident about Nerlens Noel. I believe the most likely scenario without Mitchell Robinson will involve Randle sliding to center, leaving the four spot open to some alternate talent (like Toppin). Randle's played the position frequently in his career, and it's unlikely that they'll run Randle and Noel together, although they did so in the third quarter against the Wizards with mixed results. Randle's at an excellent salary relative to his potential in this game and is one of my favorite big men tonight.
Draymond Green, GSW ($7,600) vs. BKN
Green is a player reborn in this new-look lineup. He's always been a lock for multi-category potential, but his new job under the basket bolsters his minutes and scoring potential. This game's fast pace will favor everyone, and Green's PF eligibility makes him easy to throw into multiple lineups.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($7,200) @ ATL
Brogdon's the only other player I would consider with the Pacers, although it's been rough going for the point guard over the past few games. He did meet value with 36 FDFP against Detroit, but Brogdon gets a nod with the expectation that he'll eclipse 40, and he hasn't done that all over the past two weeks. He has the minutes to get there, and I like the exploitable matchup against Atlanta.
Kelly Oubre ($6,600) and Andrew Wiggins ($6,800), GSW vs. BKN
No, this isn't a 'best Kansas players on the slate' paragraph, but it's more a note to highlight this favorable matchup and the potential for this duo against a subpar Brooklyn defense. There's no clear favorite here, although Oubre's numbers are on a steep upward trend of late. I think it all depends on which player draws James Harden. For all his talents, Harden's never been a good defender, and if either player happens to get him on offense, they could erupt for some significant production. I think it's more likely that Wiggins gets that draw.
VALUE PLAYS ($6,667 and under)
Derrick Rose, NYK ($5,200) vs. HOU
Rose impressed with 14 points, six assists and four steals off the bench in his last game against the Wizards. He seems to be settling in quite well with the Knicks, and he's no stranger to the Garden after a season in the Big Apple in 2016. Despite a reserve role, the reduced salary presents an excellent opportunity to beat value. If he can get 30 FDFP, he'll be well worth the cost.
Sterling Brown, HOU ($4,400) @ NYK
Brown could once again get some extended run in Oladipo's absence as a second-unit guy behind Eric Gordon. He's gone over 25 minutes in three consecutive games, and the SMU product can pour in numbers across multiple categories.
That'll do it for value. Most of the blue-chip budget plays occurred in the injury section, so look back for opportunities with Houston, Utah, New York and Brooklyn. That's where you'll find avenues to slot in the elite targets tonight.
