This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
Monday's 10-game slate on FanDuel tips off at 4:00 p.m. EST. Let's begin with a look at the odds and Over/Unders for tonight's contests.
SLATE OVERVIEW
WAS (-1.5)) vs. CHA O/U:227.5
PHI (-13) vs. HOU O/U: 221.5
BKN (-7) vs. vs. MEM O/U: 226.5
CHI (-13) vs. ORL O/U: 221.5
MIL (-15) vs. DET O/U: 224
UTAH (-10.5 @ NOR O/U: 225.5
DAL (-2.5) vs. DEN O/U: 211.5
GSW (-8.5) vs.MIA O/U: 218
ATL (-3.5) @ POR O/U: 226.5
LAC (-2.5) vs. MIN O/U: 218.5
Back-to-back games: Magic, Hornets, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Heat
While not uncommon, this slate is somewhat unique due to the value available in the $6-7k range. The potential value lost by rostering too many elite options will harm most lineups today. The possibilities at lower salary levels are thin, but plentiful in the range you'd be largely excluded from if you spend up on more than two players. I favor a more balanced approach, building around the median salary to begin and then offsetting an elite or two with some of the injury pivots that dip below $5k. It's also wise to keep an eye on the back-to-back teams today, as some borderline injury situations and late scratches could become relevant as we get closer to lock.
INJURIES
CHA P.J. Washington (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
No specific pivot registers for Washington at present.
WAS Spencer Dinwiddie (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
WAS Montrezl Harrell (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
WAS Aaron Holiday (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
WAS Raul Neto (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
WAS Brad Wanamaker (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Corey Kispert ($3,700) and Tremont Waters ($3,700) will handle duties in Dinwiddie's absence, and Deni Avdija will also see increased usage.
HOU Kevin Porter (thigh) - QUESTIONABLE
HOU Alperen Sengun (ankle) - OUT
HOU Eric Gordon (groin) - QUESTIONABLE
HOU Armoni Brooks (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
David Nwaba ($4,800) and Garrison Mathews ($4,400) will experience a bump in production if the Porter, Brooks and Gordon injuries hold.
MEM Dillon Brooks (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MEM Kyle Anderson (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MEM De'Anthony Melton (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Desmond Bane ($7,200) continues to be a great pivot in this slot, and Brandon Clarke ($4,800) should serve as a top forward with the second unit.
BKN LaMarcus Aldridge (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
If Aldridge can't go, Nicolas Claxton ($6,200) and Blake Griffin ($4,100) will handle duties in the paint.
ORL Cole Anthony (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
ORL Chuma Okeke (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ORL Jalen Suggs (thumb) - OUT
ORL Robin Lopez (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Terrence Ross ($5,500) tore up the Celtics for 33 points in his last game, so he's an obvious pivot in this spot. Tim Frazier ($3,900) and Hassani Gravett ($4,700) will platoon at Anthony's position if he remains out.
DET Jerami Grant (thumb) - OUT
DET Cory Joseph (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
DET Derrick Walton (undisclosed) - QUESTIONABLE
DET Frank Jackson (ankle) - OUT
DET Isaiah Stewart (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
In this injury scenario, Luka Garza ($5,300) and Trey Lyles ($4,800) have been destroying their seasonal averages and are great pivots against the Bucks.
MIL Khris Middleton (personal) - QUESTIONABLE
If Middleton is still out, Pat Connaughton ($4,800) will probably draw another start.
NOP Jonas Valanciunas (COVID-19 Protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
NOP Brandon Ingram (Achilles) - QUESTIONABLE
Garrett Temple ($5,100) will get a decent boost in Ingram's absence, and Willy Hernangomez ($4,200) will be the target if JoVal doesn't play.
DEN Monte Morris (knee, COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
DEN Jeff Green (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
DEN Bones Hyland (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
While Aaron Gordon's return is great news for the team, there will still be a gap at point guard, likely filled by Facundo Campazzo ($6,400).
MIA Bam Adebayo (thumb) - OUT
MIA Gabe Vincent (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIA Dewayne Dedmon (knee) - OUT
MIA Max Strus (COVID-19 Protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
MIA Duncan Robinson (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
A return from Strus ($5,800) would muddy things and put him ahead of Caleb Martin ($5,300) as a solid pivot. Otherwise, Martin is fine, as is Omer Yurtseven ($6,400) at center.
ATL John Collins (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ATL Bogdan Bogdanovic (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ATL Gorgui Dieng (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ATL James Johnson (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Collins and Bogdan are the only two dependable absences, but we have several players exiting protocols, and some of them could be held out for conditioning. It's wise to look at Atlanta as a late-swap target at the late end of the slate. Guys like Cam Reddish and Danilo Gallinari would immediately be valuable if they took the floor.
POR Damian Lillard (injury management) - OUT
POR CJ McCollum (lung) - OUT
POR Jusuf Nurkic (COVID-19 Protocols) - DOUBTFUL
Anfernee Simons ($3,700) and Dennis Smith ($4,000) are likely backcourt replacements, and Larry Nance ($6,100) would be in line for another start if Nurkic sits.
MIN Karl-Anthony Towns (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIN D'Angelo Russell (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley and Naz Reid are our best pivots.
LAC Paul George(elbow) - OUT
LAC Ivica Zubac (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
LAC Luke Kennard (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
LAC Nicolas Batum (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Load up on Serge Ibaka ($4,000), Marcus Morris ($6,900) and Terance Mann ($5,300) in this injury scenario.
My top four pivots in the injury section: Smith, Simons, Reid and Mann.
ELITE PLAYERS
My elites are rating lower than usual on this slate, although Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600) is still a wise play at this salary versus Detroit. Although the status of several players remains unclear, I also favor Trae Young ($9,800) heavily because we know that Collins and Bogdanovic won't play against a backcourt-compromised Portland team. My regular Brooklyn elites (Harden, Durant) don't make my necessary list tonight against Memphis.
Bradley Beal ($9,100) is at an excellent salary point and should smash as the top producer for the Wizards against Charlotte this evening. I prefer him over most of the Hornets' elites, including LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges. Keep in mind that while guys like Ball and Bridges, and even higher-priced guys like Embiid, the Brooklyn boys and Jokic are all going to produce, we need to balance our upside and exposure intelligently. \When we make predictions, we are thinking about roster percentage and expected total equally.
Also consider: Rudy Gobert ($9,000) @ NOP, Zach LaVine, CHI ($8,300) vs. ORL, Jimmy Butler, MIA ($9,800) @ GSW
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
Anthony Edwards, MIN ($8,200) @ LAC
With two of Minnesota's top players sidelined, maximum pressure will be on Edwards to put up some highlight reel-worthy plays and excellent numbers against the Clippers. Edwards is as about as reliable as you'll get on Monday's slate, as the production that needs to be absorbed will fall his way on almost every possession. His 27.6 percent usage rate will probably go a full 10 percentage points higher in this spot.
Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,100) vs. HOU
Because the price differential between Embiid and Harris is so vast, Harris will almost always show up in one's lineup crunches. While you can fudge the numbers enough to get him out of your recommendations, tonight's game against Houston is one spot where you want to keep him. The Sixers and Rockets have yet to meet, but on paper, the Sixers check the boxes at almost every position. Christian Wood will give Embiid all he can handle, leaving Harris to contend with minimum resistance, especially when he stretches the floor. He regressed a bit in his last game after dazzling with a triple-double two games ago, and a bounce-back is likely.
Wendell Carter, ORL ($7,100) @ CHI
The Magic are slowly emerging from their injury quagmire, but Carter did not get bitten by the protocols or injury this time around. He's been a mainstay in the lineup throughout their struggles and just put up his 17th double-double Sunday night. This is a challenging back-to-back game, which is one reason why I believe his roster rate will be lower than usual. A rest day is always possible, but I have no problem getting him involved if he plays.
Saddiq Bey, DET ($7,000) @ MIL
Bey is on my list as a player set for a big second half of the season. The addition of Cade Cunningham and the eventual improved health of the squad will make them a team to contend with, and Bey has effectively taken a leadership role amid Jerami Grant's absence. Other sites have given Bey respect with a higher salary, but FanDuel hasn't responded in kind. I still think $7k is way too cheap for him, as he can explode over 40 FP on any given night.
Also consider: Tyler Herro, MIA ($6,500) @ GSW, Hamidou Diallo, DET ($7,300) @ MIL
VALUE PLAYS
As usual, there's a wealth of value plays in the Injuries section, but here are a few more that slipped through the cracks.
Norman Powell, POR ($6,000) vs. ATL
Powell's proven to be an apt replacement for CJ McCollum, and he becomes even more worthwhile with Damian Lillard also missing tonight's contest. Powell's coming off a brilliant 21-point effort against the Jazz, and although his most recent game against the Lakers wasn't nearly as good, his overall play across the last two weeks has been exemplary, putting him in the 30 FP range on almost every occasion. As his salary indicates, that's just where we want him for the 5x value benchmark.
Will Barton, DEN ($6,100) @ DAL
Aaron Gordon is back to full health, but Barton should still see his share of opportunities. His salary is now a little high, but it doesn't take Barton long to beat 30 FP if his shot volume is high and his three-pointers are falling. His effectiveness from downtown is one way that Gordon and Barton don't correlate, and apt perimeter shooting is a skill that's sorely needed in Denver's arsenal.
Jarred Vanderbilt, MIN ($6,000) @ LAC
The obvious pivots are Edwards and Reid, but Vanderbilt tends to get a nice boost when Towns is out. Unfortunately, Vanderbilt hasn't been up to speed since returning from the health and safety protocols and hasn't been able to show up in Towns' recent absence. He's now had a few days rest and should be ready to surprise some people. I expect lower popularity based on recent numbers.
Also consider: Steven Adams, MEM ($4,900) @ BKN, Nassir Little, POR ($5,500) v.s ATL, Davon Reed, DEN ($4,100) @ DAL, Reggie Jackson, LAC ($6,000) vs. MIN
