This article is part of our FanDuel NBA series.
The NBA cranks out yet another huge slate Monday. The 11-game offering kicks off at 4:30 p.m. EDT, and lots of late swap action is to be had as we sweat some injury situations.
SLATE OVERVIEW
IND @ WAS (+4) O/U: 234.5
NOR @ BOS (-4) O/U: 230.5
MIN @ BKN (-11) O/U: 239.5
MIA @ NYK (+4.5) O/U: 208
TOR @ DET (+5) O/U: 219
MEM @ HOU (+5) O/U: 221.5
DAL @ OKC (+10) O/U: 217
SAC @ SAS (-2.5) O/U: 228
CLE @ UTA (-15.5) O/U: 224
CHI @ GSW (+4.5) O/U: 224.5
MIL @ LAC (-1 ) O/U: 229.5
(odds provided are best possible USA odds and are subject to change)
Games to Target in BOLD
Games to Fade in ITALIC
Looking at spreads and game totals is especially important on slates like these because we can't get to every favorable spot in one article. A bit of homework is required, but look at the slate's best spots (narrow spreads and high totals) to find picks that we may not mention.
INJURIES
IND Doug McDermott (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
Some minutes would open up for Justin Holiday ($3,800) if McDermott can't make it.
WAS Bradley Beal (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
A Beal absence would spike usage for a very obvious teammate that we'll discuss in the Elite Players section. Although they're not at the same position, I like Deni Avdija ($3,600) as a player to absorb some usage if Beal were to sit.
NOR Lonzo Ball (hip) - QUESTIONABLE
The team seems to be managing with Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,800) and Eric Bledsoe ($4,100) holding down the fort, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Lonzo sit for another game. Bledsoe's price is definitely more favorable here, and we're going to need a guy at this level on such a massive slate with multiple spend-up options.
MIA Goran Dragic (back) - PROBABLE
MIA Kendrick Nunn (ankle) - OUT
MIA Victor Oladipo (inactive) - OUT
Dragic's probable tag makes things a bit more difficult, but it's hard to look away from Tyler Herro ($5,800) despite this matchup's slow pace. If Dragic gets a minutes cap due to his back issue, this spot becomes more favorable for Herro.
NYK Julius Randle (thigh) - QUESTIONABLE
NYK Mitchell Robinson (foot) - OUT
NYK Reggie Bullock (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
The bottom falls out for the Knicks if Randle sits. Expect Taj Gibson ($4,200) to get the start if Randle can't go. Gibson racked up 33 FP against a $3,900 salary for 9x value Saturday, so this is a spot to keep an eye on. The starting center role will likely flip to Nerlens Noel ($5,400) with Robinson out indefinitely.
TOR Kyle Lowry (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
Lowry is traveling with the team but his status against the Pistons is in doubt. If Lowry is unable to go, I will place a lot of focus on Fred VanVleet ($7,400) as the primary pivot. Replacements like Gary Trent and Malachi Flynn are best to fade.
DET Jerami Grant (quad) - QUESTIONABLE
DET Dennis Smith (back) - OUT
Quad injuries can be tricky, but word is that Grant's injury isn't severe, so I would count on him being back. With Smith out, there is some good value in Cory Joseph ($4,000), Saben Lee ($3,700) and Wayne Ellington ($3,900), but who becomes the biggest beneficiary will be a dart throw. There's extra consideration for Ellington due to his SG designation.
HOU Christian Wood (ankle)- QUESTIONABLE
Kelly Olynyk ($5,200) had a 35 FP night as Wood's replacement, and the new acquisition would certainly be in play if Wood were to miss another game.
OKC Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (foot) - OUT
OKC Al Horford (inactive) - OUT
OKC Luguentz Dort (concussion) - QUESTIONABLE
OKC Darius Bazley (shoulder) - QUESTIONABLE
I'll mention a favorite play later in the Value Plays section, but expect Theo Maledon ($5,100) to continue work at point guard. Isaiah Roby ($4,700) is also a decent option in light of the numerous potential absences.
CLE Jarrett Allen (concussion) - OUT
Although Larry Nance ($6,800) will certainly benefit here, keep an eye out for the recently acquired Isaiah Hartenstein ($3,500) to make his Cleveland debut. Hartenstein can be a point-per-minute beast when he gets enough opportunity, and Allen's absence could provide that. I also like Dean Wade ($4,800) here if he gets another start.
GSW Stephen Curry (tailbone) - QUESTIONABLE
Despite the questionable tag, expect Curry to be back. This will put Jordan Poole back on the bench and should benefit all of the Warriors' other starters.
LAC Serge Ibaka (back) - OUT
LAC Patrick Beverley (knee) - OUT
LAC Rajon Rondo (groin) - OUT
I'm saving these pivots for the Value Plays section because they are likely some of the most valuable to be had on this slate.
ELITE PLAYERS
At $11,000 and above, we have three players on the docket. Of the group, I like James Harden ($11,300) above Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100) and Russell Westbrook ($11,000) tonight. Although Kyrie Irving ($9,600) will return, and I have no problem with him either, the matchup against the Timberwolves is by far the most favorable of the trio, and I expect Harden and Irving to have a field day. Giannis faces a tough Clippers team, although they are a bit short-handed under the basket. Westbrook faces the Pacers, and I would give him a thumbs up if Bradley Beal were to sit tonight. Luka Doncic ($10,800) trails the 11k elites, and his problem is that this game against the Thunder has blowout written all over it. Dallas could probably pull this out without Doncic, so a potential usage drop makes me leery of adding him tonight. Also, in the 10k range, Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000) is definitely in a nice spot against a weak Brooklyn frontcourt. With so many centers on the slate, he'll probably be less popular than usual, so I'd look to him as one of the elites in a tournament setting.
Among the 10 players in the 9k range, De'Aaron Fox ($9,800) and Zion Williamson ($9,000) stand out as my favorite plays, with an honorable mention going to Kawhi Leonard ($9,600). Fox could be a bit too expensive, which is why I would go with Zion in this grouping. He's playing lights out currently, and with his 5x value point squarely at 45 FP, I have no problem going with the upside. If I want a piece of the Clippers matchup, I'd be more inclined to spend down for Paul George ($8,700), who is coming off a 57 FP game against the Sixers. Leonard is still a viable play, however.
EXPECTED CHALK
Domantas Sabonis, IND ($8,800) @ WAS
This chalky add is pretty self-explanatory. The Wizards have major frontcourt issues and can't defend opposing big men. Sabonis has yet to inflict damage on this team, but it's a matchup he's likely circled on his calendar as an exploitable spot. His PF designation on FanDuel makes him exponentially more valuable.
Pascal Siakam, TOR ($8,700) @ DET
The Raptors have struggled recently, but this is an extremely favorable matchup for them. If Jerami Grant plays, he'll still be dealing with the sore quad. Siakam didn't play well in his lone game against the Pistons, but recency bias may play in his favor in terms of popularity.
Rudy Gobert, UTA ($8,200) vs. CLE
Larry Nance will be at a height disadvantage opposite Gobert. The standout center has double-doubled in eight of his last nine contests, and he sets up well to notch another one with Jarrett Allen out of the lineup.
Caris LeVert, IND ($7,600) @ WAS
LeVert's salary is back to its expected level, but he should have a field day against the Wizards defense. Washington also promises a fast pace, and LeVert should be able to crank up his shot volume in that scenario. The guard usually fares well when he can heave up 15 shots or more.
Also consider: Jaylen Brown, BOS ($7,700) vs. NO, Kevin Porter, HOU ($6,800) @ MEM
VALUE PLAYS
On such a huge slate, the likelihood of value opening up throughout the day increases, so it's important to keep a close eye on developments if you are able. Some of those potential developments can be found in the Injuries section, but there's also a lot of solid, steady value to be had in the lower tier.
Marcus Morris ($4,500), Reggie Jackson ($4,300) and Terance Mann ($4,100), LAC vs. MIL
These Clippers have been recent mainstays in the rotation, and Mann is quickly becoming the go-to candidate on the second unit. Morris has been crucial in the frontcourt with Serge Ibaka sidelined, and Jackson is playing some of the best basketball of his career in recent days. All three of these players have steady floors that can provide more room for your spend-up options, and it's hard to go wrong with any of these three as you fill in your lineups.
Moses Brown, OKC ($6,500) vs. DAL
Brown's production is probably the biggest surprise in the league at the moment. He's taken advantage of an opportunity and is putting up absolutely wild numbers. Brown is the go-to guy for the Thunder, especially with SGA out and Al Horford inactive. His salary is now understandably higher, and his popularity will be through the roof, but it's hard to turn away from his recent production. If you are going for mid-range value at center, I think it's a toss-up between Brown and Boston's Robert Williams ($6,500). Roster rates will likely dictate which direction you should go in and what contest type they are best for.
Malcolm Brogdon, IND ($6,500) @ WAS
Brogdon's at a great salary point and in a good spot against the Wizards. Like his counterpart LeVert, Brogdon could be a great addition to your lineup, and it's not often that you see him this affordable. He's slid down from the 7k range in recent weeks, which means his usually dependable 25-30 FP floor is more desirable and won't hurt you if he doesn't pop for a big number. I wouldn't stack LeVert and Brogdon, though. This is just a cheaper alternative.
Maxi Kleber, DAL ($4,100) @ OKC
Kleber plays significant minutes already and recently posed a season-high 16 points against Portland, but I like his chances even more in this potential blowout. If Kristaps Porzingis gets pulled, another position opens up for Kleber, and he could be in line for 8x value.
Brodric Thomas, CLE ($3,600) @ UTA
This is a punt play in the truest sense, but Thomas garnered a start recently and put up 22 FP against Sacramento two days ago. This game is poised to get out of hand, so I wouldn't rule out Thomas getting an extended run. He's played extremely well during stints in the G-League, and can open up a lot of spending cash for you if you take a flier on him.
Some other value targets worth mentioning: SF Malik Beasley, MIN ($5,800) @ BKN; SG Marcus Smart, BOS ($5,500) vs. NOR; PG Jalen Brunson, DAL ($5,000) @ OKC
