This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
DAL vs. PHI (-5.5), O/U: 226.5
ORL vs. BKN (-7.5), O/U: 227.5
SAC vs. NY (-2), O/U: 222
LAC (-8) vs. MEM, O/U: 228.5
WAS vs. DEN (-7), O/U: 236.5
NO vs. MIL (-9), O/U: 240.5
Thursday's DraftKings NBA slate tips off at 7:00 p.m. EST and includes six games. Kevin Durant will miss his sixth consecutive game for the Nets. Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable, while Jrue Holiday is doubtful. The news of the slate is the status of Elfrid Payton, who's considered doubtful with a hamstring injury. The Knicks have a favorable matchup against the Kings, and if Payton sits, Derrick Rose will be the chalky value option tonight.
The SAC-NY matchup seems like a reasonable target. It's not often we get to target the Knicks because of their slow style and stellar defense, but tonight's matchup against the Kings should be a pace-up spot. It would make sense to pair the Derrick Rose chalk with a piece from the Kings, and they have multiple affordable options to do so. Or if you plan on fading Rose, there are other appealing options on the Knicks side as well. The NO-MIL and DEN-WAS matchups are both good options to target too. They are the last two games on the slate, have the highest totals and feature elite players on both sides. The Pelicans and Wizards have discounted salaries while the Nuggets are still shorthanded.
Injuries to Monitor
Kevin Durant (hamstring): OUT
Durant will miss his sixth consecutive game tonight. Bruce Brown ($4,600) has been starting at power forward in his absence.
Kristaps Porzingis (back): QUESTIONABLE
Porzingis has missed back-to-back games due to back soreness and is considered questionable for tonight. James Johnson ($3,200) and Dwight Powell ($3,000) have seen increased run his absence.
Jrue Holiday (COVID-19): DOUBTFUL
Holiday hasn't played since Feb. 6th due to the league's health and safety protocols but appears to be nearing a return. Donte DiVincenzo ($5,000) and D.J. Augustin ($4,100) have been starting at guard in his absence.
Dillon Brooks (thigh): QUESTIONABLE
Brooks has missed the past three games with soreness in his thigh and is listed as questionable for tonight. Grayson Allen ($4,800) has been starting at shooting guard, while Justise Winslow ($3,800) has seen extended run off the bench.
Elfrid Payton (hamstring): DOUBTFUL
Payton is considered doubtful tonight due to a sore hamstring. If he misses, Immanuel Quickley ($4,100) and Derrick Rose ($4,600) will likely see expanded roles.
Elite Players
Guard:
James Harden ($10,800)
Harden has scored at least 67 DK points in four of the last five games as Kevin Durant has been injured. He's played 41 minutes in back-to-back games and is coming off another triple-double last time out. It's actually a bit surprising that his salary is still under 11K. He's been a bargain and should continue to be as long as Durant is out of the lineup. Luka Doncic ($10,900) is the other elite option at guard. He's put up at least 60 DK points in four of his last five games. I prefer Harden tonight, and he will be the more popular option, but that's also why it makes sense to play Luka. He always has the potential to be the slate's highest scorer, and the less popular he is, the greater impact a ceiling score would have.
Center:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
Giannis has scored at least 66 DK points in three consecutive games, and he's topped 70 in four of his last eight. He's consistently been playing more minutes, as the Bucks bench isn't as deep this season, and he's still getting there in blowouts, too, as he put up 66 in just 29 minutes last time out. The center position is loaded tonight. Nikola Jokic ($10,400) has seen a drop in salary for a prime matchup against the Wizards tonight. Nikola Vucevic ($10,000) is getting as much usage as he can handle for the Magic, and they're in a pace-up spot against the Nets tonight. Joel Embiid ($9,900) has seen a significant drop in salary after a poor shooting performance last time out, and the Sixers have a marquee matchup against Doncic and the Mavericks. Giannis has the highest and safest floor, but I'll have interest in all four centers tonight as each one has the potential for a slate-topping ceiling score.
Forward:
Kawhi Leonard ($9,300)
Leonard is the only small forward on the slate with a salary above 9K. I don't expect him to be very popular tonight with multiple spend-up options at guard and center. His salary is still appealing, though, for some reason, it keeps dropping even though he's been performing well and playing big minutes since returning from a three-game injury absence. He's always a decent contrarian option for tournaments when he isn't going to be popular, and the affordable salary reinforces that tonight.
Expected Chalk
Derrick Rose ($4,600)
Elfrid Payton is considered doubtful to play tonight, and that would mean an expanded role for Rose. Whether he starts or comes off the bench doesn't really matter as he should see plenty of minutes to pay off the $4,600 salary. Tom Thibodeau ran Rose into the ground when he coached him in Chicago. He's coming off his best game as a Knick that saw him put up 37.5 DK points in 27 minutes. Tonight's matchup against the Kings is a favorable one and should be a pace-up spot for the usually slow Knicks. I'd expect him to very popular in all contests.
Value Picks
Brandon Ingram ($7,900)
Ingram's salary has surprisingly dropped to its lowest point in the past 10 games. He's coming off 50.75 DK points yesterday, and the Pelicans are in a pace-up against the Bucks tonight in a matchup that features the highest total on the slate.
Michael Porter ($6,000)
JaMychal Green and Paul Millsap are still out, and the Nuggets have a great matchup against the Wizards. Porter played 40 minutes last time out and should see plenty of run again tonight.
Marvin Bagley ($5,700)
Normally, I wouldn't highlight Bagley in a matchup against the Knicks, but Hassan Whiteside has been ruled out, and Glenn Robinson was waived, so I'd expect a few more minutes for Bagley. It makes sense to pair Derrick Rose with someone from the Kings side as well.
RJ Barrett ($5,500)
A favorable matchup against the Kings in what should be a pace-up spot already makes the Knicks viable tonight, and Elfrid Payton being out only increases the appeal. Barrett should see a slight bump in minutes and usage in his absence.
Will Barton ($5,100)
The Nuggets are still missing multiple players at guard and forward, so Barton should see plenty of minutes against a bad Wizards defense.
Immanuel Quickley ($4,100)
Keep an eye on the Elfrid Payton news as Quickley may draw the start at point guard. He's seen a reduced role since Derrick Rose's arrival, but if he's announced as the starter, I'd have plenty of interest for a prime matchup against the Kings.
