This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
It's an unusually large nine-game slate Thursday. Contest winning scores are likely to be up. There are also a ton of impactful players whose availability won't be known until Thursday evening. Many of the night's best values are likely to hinge on which of those players play, and which ones do not.
TARGET
CLE at POR: This game has the second highest projected total score, but it is likely to be a closer and more competitive game than the Clippers-Rockets. Both the Cavaliers and the Trail Blazers are in highly competitive battles for playoff positioning in which every game matters.
AVOID
PHO at UTA: A lot can go wrong with the slow, stout Jazz defense hosting the dysfunctional Suns. This could be both low scoring and a blowout.
GUARDS
Damian Lillard, POR vs. CLE ($9,600): Lillard is averaging 36.4 minutes per game since the All-Star break, good for tenth in the league. The 31.2 points he's averaging in that window is second only to Anthony Davis, and Lillard leads the league in threes since the break. Add that incredible hot streak to his fair salary, and the fact that Lillard is one of the key players in the game I'm most interested in targeting, and he becomes the first player I'm inserting into my Thursday lineups.
Tyreke Evans, MEM vs. CHI ($7,000): Evans (rib) was upgraded to questionable Wednesday, nearly 36 hours before Thursday's tip-off. He hasn't played in over three weeks, but the early upgrade in his status seems to imply that there is a good chance he'll play. When Evans last played, he cost $900 more, and both Mario Chalmers (hamstring; doubtful) and Andrew Harrison (wrist; out) were healthy. If Evans plays, he'd likely be in line for a ton of usage as the Grizzlies primary ball-handler, scorer, and distributor.
Marco Belinelli, PHI at NY ($3,500): Belinelli has played at least 23 minutes in 11 of his 12 games as a 76er. He's averaging 11.0 points in 25.6 minutes on his new team, and he's topped 16 DKFP in three of his past four games, and six of his past 10. Over the last ten games, the Knicks have been by far the worst per-possession defense in the league, and they have had one of the worst three-point defenses all season.
FORWARDS
Tobias Harris, LAC at HOU ($7,700): Since the start of February, Harris has averaged 35.1 minutes per game. In that time, he's scored at least 15 points in 13 of 16 games. I go into the DeAndre Jordan-Clint Capela matchup below, but the takeaway is that Jordan has struggled against Capela recently, so the Clippers may need even more from Harris than usual. Over the last five games, Harris is averaging more DKFP than any forward that costs less than $11,000 Thursday.
Larry Nance, CLE at POR ($6,400): With Kevin Love (hand) and Tristan Thompson (ankle) still sidelined, Nance is the Cavaliers' primary big man. Nance (hamstring) played only 14 minutes in the Cavaliers' last game, but that was in part because the team had a commanding lead over Suns throughout the contest. All indications are that Nance will play Thursday. Strategically, his light workload on Tuesday is likely to deter some managers from rostering Nance. Before Tuesday, Nance was averaging 14.9 points and 10.4 rebounds in 28.1 minutes over a seven-game stretch that included four double-doubles.
Zach Collins POR vs. CLE ($3,500): The big man dynamic in this game will be interesting. Jusuf Nurkic is by far the best "traditional big man" on either team, and Cavaliers' current health is such they don't really have anyone who can effectively bang with Nurkic down low. However, the Cavaliers offense is built to make Nurkic-style bigs ineffective. If the Cavaliers can force the Blazers to adapt, then Collins would likely see a boost in his workload. Collins has played at least 23 minutes in three of his last five games, and he's scored at least 17 DKFP in four of those five games.
CENTERS
Anthony Davis, NO at SA ($11,500): Davis is on fire, the Spurs are reeling, and this is a crucial game in the Western Conference playoff race. The Pelicans are currently in the fifth seed, but they are only a game and a half ahead of the ninth-place Spurs. Davis leads the NBA in scoring since the All-Star break, as was mentioned above, but he also leads the league in blocks since the break, while ranking third in rebounds. At this stage in his career, Pau Gasol is not much competition for Davis.
Clint Capela, HOU vs. LAC ($6,300): The last two times Capela matched up against DeAndre Jordan, Capela was dominant. Capela double-doubled in both games, while Jordan scored 14 points combined. In their meeting last month, Capela scored 22 points and grabbed 14 rebounds on his way to 45 DKFP. Granted, the sample size is small, and Capela has been inconsistent since that game. Nonetheless, the two players' head-to-head history is compelling.
Trevor Booker, IND vs. TOR ($3,400): Booker is averaging 17.0 minutes per game with his new team – a steady role likely to increase with Domantas Sabonis (ankle) out Thursday. Booker is also questionable with an ankle injury, so if he is out, then Al Jefferson ($3,000) is likely to see a big boost in value. The Pacers' don't have a lot of depth in their frontcourt, so the first reserve big man can see a large role. Starters Thad Young and Myles Turner both already play more than 30 minutes most nights. After those two, Sabonis and Booker are the only two players to regularly play more than 10 minutes per game, so the absence of one creates a opportunity for another backup to step in.
